by Calculated Risk on 8/18/2025 12:26:00 PM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in July

A brief excerpt:

First, here are some comments from the Houston Association of REALTORS®: HOUSTON HOME PRICES EASE IN JULY AS SUPPLY HITS RECORD HIGH

According to the Houston Association of Realtors' July 2025 Housing Market Update, single-family home sales increased 9.2 percent year-over-year. A total of 8,300 homes were sold compared to 7,601 last year, when Hurricane Beryl temporarily halted market activity for several days.

July marked the largest year-over-year decline in home prices since 2023. The median price was down 3.1 percent to $339,000. The average price was $434,664, which is 1.9 percent below last year’s level.

Active listings reached an all-time high in July, exceeding 40,000 available homes in the Houston area. This represents a 38.2 percent increase from the same time last year.
emphasis added

Active listings hit an all-time high in Houston leading to some price declines. This is something we are seeing everywhere inventory has increased sharply. Note that sales were partially up year-over-year in Houston due to the hurricane depressing sales last year.
...
In July, sales in these markets were down 0.6% YoY. Last month, in June, these same markets were up 4.3% year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

Important: There were the same number of working days in July 2025 (22) as in July 2024 (22). So, the year-over-year change in the headline SA data will be similar to the NSA data.
...
More local markets to come!

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 8/18/2025 10:00:00 AM

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 32, down from 33 last month. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.

From the NAHB: Builder Confidence Plateaus at Relatively Low Level

Elevated mortgage rates, weak buyer traffic and ongoing supply-side challenges continued to act as a drag on builder confidence in August, as sentiment levels remain in a holding pattern at a low level.

Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes was 32 in August, down one point from July, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today. Builder sentiment has now been in negative territory for 16 consecutive months and has hovered at a relatively low reading between 32 and 34 since May.

“Affordability continues to be the top challenge for the housing market and buyers are waiting for mortgage rates to drop to move forward,” said NAHB Chairman Buddy Hughes, a home builder and developer from Lexington, N.C. “Builders are also grappling with supply-side headwinds, including ongoing frustrations with regulatory policies connected to developing land and building homes.”

“Housing affordability is central to the outlook for economic growth and inflation,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “Given a slowing housing market and other recent economic data, the Fed’s monetary policy committee should return to lowering the federal funds rate, which will reduce financing costs for housing construction and indirectly help mortgage interest rates.”

In further signs of a soft housing market, the latest HMI survey also revealed that 37% of builders reported cutting prices in August, down from 38% in July. This share has remained at 37% or 38% for the past three months. Meanwhile, the average price reduction was 5% in August, the same as it’s been every month since last November. The use of sales incentives was 66% in August, up from 62% in July and the highest percentage in the post-Covid period.
...
The HMI index gauging current sales conditions fell one point in August to a level of 35 while the component measuring sales expectations in the next six months held steady at 43. The gauge charting traffic of prospective buyers posted a two-point gain to 22 but remains at a very low level.

Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast fell one point to 44, the Midwest gained one point to 42, the South dropped one point to 29 and the West declined one point to 24.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the NAHB index since Jan 1985.

This was below the consensus forecast.

by Calculated Risk on 8/18/2025 08:11:00 AM

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 0.1% week-over-week.

Inventory is now up 37.7% from the seasonal bottom in January.   Usually, inventory is up about 22% from the seasonal low by this week in the year.   So, 2025 was a larger than normal increase in inventory.

The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025.  The black line is for 2019.  

Inventory was up 23.2% compared to the same week in 2024 (last week it was up 24.0%), and down 9.9% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 10.1%). 

Inventory started 2025 down 22% compared to 2019.  Inventory has closed more than half of that gap, and it appears inventory will be close to 2019 levels at the end of 2025.

This second inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.

As of August 15th, inventory was at 860 thousand (7-day average), compared to 859 thousand the prior week. 

Mike Simonsen discusses this data and much more regularly on YouTube

by Calculated Risk on 8/17/2025 07:16:00 PM

Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of August 17, 2025

Monday:
• At 10:00 AM ET, The August NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 34, up from 33. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 10 and DOW futures are up 72 (fair value).

Oil prices were down over the last week with WTI futures at $62.66 per barrel and Brent at $65.61 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $78, and Brent was at $81 - so WTI oil prices are down about 19% year-over-year.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $3.09 per gallon. A year ago, prices were at $3.40 per gallon, so gasoline prices are down $0.31 year-over-year.

by Calculated Risk on 8/17/2025 09:01:00 AM

From Goldman:

On net, we boosted our Q3 GDP tracking estimate by 0.2pp to +1.4% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) and our Q3 domestic final sales estimate by 0.3pp to +0.2%. We left our past quarter GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +3.1%.
emphasis added [August 15th estimate]

And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2025 is 2.5 percent on August 15, unchanged from August 7 after rounding. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve Board of Governors, and Treasury's Bureau of the Fiscal Service, the nowcast of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth increased from 2.0 percent to 2.2 percent, while the nowcast of third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 7.3 percent to 6.6 percent. [August 15th estimate]

by Calculated Risk on 8/16/2025 02:11:00 PM

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:

Click on graph for larger image.

• Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-August 2025

• Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-August 2025

• Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in July; Update on Mortgage/MBS Yields and Spreads

• MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Decreased Slightly in Q2 2025

• 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in July

• August ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices Continue to Cool

This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.

by Calculated Risk on 8/16/2025 08:11:00 AM

The key reports this week are July Housing Starts and Existing Home sales.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak on the "Economic Outlook" at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday.

----- Monday, August 18th -----
10:00 AM: The August NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 34, up from 33. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.

----- Tuesday, August 19th -----
8:30 AM ET: Housing Starts for July.

This graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 2000.

The consensus is for 1.300 million SAAR, down from 1.321 million SAAR in June.

10:00 AM: State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for July 2025

----- Wednesday, August 20th -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

During the day: The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for July (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).

2:00 PM: FOMC Minutes, Meeting of July 29-30

----- Thursday, August 21st -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims to increase to 226 thousand from 224 thousand last week.

10:00 AM: Existing Home Sales for July from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 3.92 million SAAR, down from 3.93 million last month.

The graph shows existing home sales from 1994 through the report last month.

Housing economist Tom Lawler expects the NAR to report sales of 3.92 million SAAR for July.

----- Friday, August 22nd -----
10:00 AM: Speech, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Economic Outlook and Framework Review, At the 2025 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, Moran, Wyoming

by Calculated Risk on 8/15/2025 03:10:00 PM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in July

A brief excerpt:

From housing economist Tom Lawler:

Early Read on Existing Home Sales in July

Based on publicly available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.92 million in July, down 0.3% from June’s preliminary pace and down 1.5% from last July’s seasonally adjusted pace.

Local realtor/MLS reports suggest that the median existing single-family home sales price last month was up by about 2.1% from a year earlier. By broad region, the YOY % increase in median sales prices in the Northeast and Midwest should be a bit over 5%, while median sales prices in both the South and the West should be little changed from a year ago.

CR Note: The NAR is scheduled to release July Existing Home sales on Thursday, August 21st at 10:00 AM. The consensus is for 3.92 million SAAR, down from 3.93 million last month. Last year, the NAR reported sales in July 2024 at 3.98 million SAAR.

There is also an update on Mortgage/MBS Yields and Spreads in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 8/15/2025 11:52:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-August 2025

A brief excerpt:

Yesterday, in Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-August 2025 I reviewed home inventory, housing starts and sales. I noted that the key stories for existing homes are that inventory has increased sharply while sales are essentially flat compared to last year (and sales in 2024 were the lowest since 1995). That means prices are under pressure. And there are significant regional differences too.

In Part 2, I will look at house prices, mortgage rates, rents and more.
...
The Case-Shiller National Index increased 2.3% year-over-year (YoY) in May and will likely be lower year-over-year in the June report compared to May (based on other data).
...
In the January report, the Case-Shiller National index was up 4.2%, in February up 3.9%, in March up 3.4%, in April report up 2.7%, and in May up 2.3%.

And the May Case-Shiller index was a 3-month average of closing prices in March, April and May. March closing prices include some contracts signed in January.

So, not only is this trending down, but there is a significant lag to this data.

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 8/15/2025 09:15:00 AM

From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization

Industrial production (IP) edged down 0.1 percent in July. Manufacturing output was unchanged after increasing 0.3 percent in June. In July, the index for mining declined 0.4 percent, and the index for utilities decreased 0.2 percent. At 104.0 percent of its 2017 average, total IP in July was 1.4 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization moved down to 77.5 percent in July, a rate that is 2.1 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2024) average.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up from the record low set in April 2020, and close to the level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic).

Capacity utilization at 77.5% is 2.1% below the average from 1972 to 2023.  This was slightly below consensus expectations.

Note: y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

The second graph shows industrial production since 1967.

Industrial production decreased to 104.0. This is above the pre-pandemic level.

Industrial production was slightly above consensus expectations.

by Calculated Risk on 8/15/2025 08:30:00 AM

On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 0.5% from June to July (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 3.9 percent from July 2024.

From the Census Bureau report:

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for July 2025, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $726.3 billion, up 0.5 percent from the previous month, and up 3.9 percent from July 2024. ... The May 2025 to June 2025 percent change was revised from up 0.6 percent to up 0.9 percent.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).

Retail sales ex-gasoline was up 0.5% in July.

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales and food service (ex-gasoline) since 1993.

Retail and Food service sales, ex-gasoline, increased by 4.4% on a YoY basis.

The change in sales in July were at expectations and the previous two months were revised up.

by Calculated Risk on 8/14/2025 08:45:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Friday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Retail sales for July is scheduled to be released.  The consensus is for 0.5% increase in retail sales.

• Also at 8:30 AM, The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for August. The consensus is for a reading of 0.0, down from 5.5.

• At 9:15 AM, The Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for July. The consensus is for a 0.2% decrease in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to be unchanged at 77.6%.

• At 10:00 AM, University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Preliminary for August)

by Calculated Risk on 8/14/2025 06:21:00 PM

From First American Chief Economist Mark Fleming Housing Market Returning to Reality as National Price Growth Cools Further in July, According to First American Data & Analytics Monthly Home Price Index Report

Highlights

• Annual house price appreciation is at the slowest rate since March 2012.

• House price growth reported in last month’s HPI for May 2025 to June 2025 was revised down by 0.1 percentage points, from -0.1 percent to -0.2 percent.

“It’s back to reality for national house price appreciation, as limited affordability, economic uncertainty and homeowners unwilling to enter the market and give up their low mortgage rates hinder demand amid a growing inventory of listings,” said Mark Fleming, chief economist at First American. “This supply-demand dynamic slowed annual home price growth nationally for the eighth straight month in July. National prices are now just 0.3 percent from their recent peak in May. A window has opened for incomes to outpace price growth and affordability to improve, a positive for buyers looking for an opportunity. Overall, it’s a reflection of a steadily cooling housing market, following the white-hot pandemic-era market fueled by record-low mortgage rates.”

by Calculated Risk on 8/14/2025 03:15:00 PM

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 9 August

The U.S. hotel industry reported negative year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 9 August. ...

3-9 August 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024):

• Occupancy: 68.0% (-1.0%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$159.61 (-0.6%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$108.47 (-1.6%)
emphasis added

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2024.  Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. 

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking behind last year and the median rate for the period 2000 through 2024 (Blue).

Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

The 4-week average will decrease seasonally into the Fall.

On a year-to-date basis, the only worse years for occupancy over the last 25 years were pandemic or recession years.

by Calculated Risk on 8/14/2025 12:26:00 PM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Decreased Slightly in Q2 2025

A brief excerpt:

From the MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Decrease Slightly in the Second Quarter of 2025

The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties decreased to a seasonally adjusted rate of 3.93 percent of all loans outstanding at the end of the second quarter of 2025, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) National Delinquency Survey.

The following graph shows the percent of loans delinquent by days past due. Overall delinquencies decreased in Q2. The sharp increase in 2020 in the 90-day bucket was due to loans in forbearance (included as delinquent, but not reported to the credit bureaus).

The percent of loans in the foreclosure process increased year-over-year from 0.43 percent in Q2 2024 to 0.48 percent in Q2 2025 (red) but remains historically low.

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 8/14/2025 10:05:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-August 2025

A brief excerpt:

This 2-part overview for mid-July provides a snapshot of the current housing market.

The key stories this year for existing homes are that inventory increased sharply, and sales are down slightly compared to last year (and sales in 2024 were the lowest since 1995). That means prices are under pressure (although there will not be a huge wave of distressed sales).

And it has been a disappointing year for new homebuilders (but not as horrible as the housing bust!). Homebuilders have a growing number of completed homes for sales, a larger than normal number of unsold homes under construction and are reducing prices to compete with more existing home inventory.

Realtor.com reports in the July 2025 Monthly Housing Market Trends Report that new listings were up 7.3% year-over-year in July. And active listings were up 24.8% year-over-year.

Homebuyers found more options in July, as the number of actively listed homes rose 24.8% compared with the same time last year. There are now over 1.1 million homes for sale nationwide, the third consecutive month with over 1 million active listings.

While July marks the 21st consecutive month of inventory gains, the pace of growth is beginning to slow. Active listings rose less than in prior months—down from 28.9% in June and 31.5% in May—suggesting the post-pandemic inventory recovery could be stalling a bit. Nationally, total active listings in July remained 13.4% below typical 2017–19 levels, a slightly wider gap than last month’s 12.9% shortfall. Overall, inventory growth seems to be slightly decelerating after taking off in early spring.

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 8/14/2025 08:30:00 AM

The DOL reported:

In the week ending August 9, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 224,000, a decrease of 3,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 226,000 to 227,000. The 4-week moving average was 221,750, an increase of 750 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 220,750 to 221,000.
emphasis added

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 221,750.

The previous week was revised up.

Weekly claims were close to the consensus forecast.

by Calculated Risk on 8/13/2025 07:30:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims to increase to 228 thousand from 226 thousand last week.

• Also at 8:30 AM, The Producer Price Index for July from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in PPI, and a 0.2% increase in core PPI.

by Calculated Risk on 8/13/2025 01:19:00 PM

Here is a look at the change in teen employment over time.

The graph below shows the employment-population ratio for teens (16 to 19 years old) since 1948.

The graph is Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA), to show the seasonal hiring of teenagers during the summer.

A few observations:
1) Although teen employment has recovered some since the great recession, overall teen employment had been trending down. This is probably because more people are staying in school (a long term positive for the economy).

2) Teen employment was significantly impacted in 2020 by the pandemic.

Click on graph for larger image.

3) A smaller percentage of teenagers are obtaining summer employment. The seasonal spikes are smaller than in previous decades. 

The teen employment-population ratio was 35.2% in July 2025, down from 37.9% in July 2024.  Excluding 2020 due to the pandemic, this is the lowest ratio since 2015 following the financial crisis.

The teen participation rate was 42.0% in July 2025, down from 43.6% the previous July. 

This has pushed the teen unemployment rate (NSA) up to 16.1% from 13.2% in July 2024.

So, a smaller percentage of teenagers are joining the labor force during the summer as compared to previous years. This could be because of fewer employment opportunities, or because teenagers are pursuing other activities during the summer.

The decline in teenager participation is one of the reasons the overall participation rate has declined (of course, the retiring baby boomers is the main reason the overall participation rate has declined over the last 20+ years).

by Calculated Risk on 8/13/2025 09:50:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in July

A brief excerpt:

Tracking local data gives an early look at what happened the previous month and also reveals regional differences in both sales and inventory.

Closed sales in July were mostly for contracts signed in May and June, and mortgage rates, according to the Freddie Mac PMMS, 6.82% in May and 6.82% in June (somewhat higher than for closed sales in June).

In July, sales in these early reporting markets were down 1.4% YoY. Last month, in June, these same markets were up 3.8% year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

Important: There were the same number of working days in July 2025 (22) as in July 2024 (22). So, the year-over-year change in the headline SA data will be similar to the NSA data.
...
Many more local markets to come!

There is much more in the article.