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Tuesday, January 19, 2010

NY Budget "Slashes services, Raises fees"

by Calculated Risk on 1/19/2010 10:31:00 AM

New York has the earliest start to the new fiscal year, and other states will soon follow, see: Illinois: "state of insolvency"

From CNNMoney: New York budget plan a sign of things to come for the states (ht energyecon)

New York's governor unveiled a painful budget plan Tuesday that slashes services, raises fees and implements some creative actions to close a yawning $7.4 billion fiscal gap.
...
"There are no more easy answers. We cannot keep spending money that we do not have," Paterson said in a written statement.
...
The state's woes are a bellwether of what others around the nation are facing. New York's fiscal year starts in April, the earliest of any state.

Citigroup: Fourth Quarter Net Loss of $7.6 Billion

by Calculated Risk on 1/19/2010 08:10:00 AM

Press Release: Fourth Quarter Net Loss of $7.6 Billion

Citigroup today reported a full year 2009 net loss of $1.6 billion ... Managed revenues were $91.1 billion for the year. The fourth quarter 2009 net loss was $7.6 billion ...

"We ... cut costs by over $13 billion annually, reduced headcount by 100,000, and reduced assets by $500 billion from peak levels." [said Vikram Pandit, Chief Executive Officer of Citigroup]
More from Eric Dash at the NY Times: Citigroup Reports a $1.6 Billion Loss for Year
[L]osses in Citigroup’s domestic mortgages and credit units overwhelmed gains from investment banking, a trend that is likely to continue. Bank executives set aside another $700 million to cover consumer losses in the fourth quarter, bringing the total amount of reserves to about $36 billion at year’s end.
The confessional is still open.

Monday, January 18, 2010

CRE: Sign of the Times

by Calculated Risk on 1/18/2010 10:13:00 PM

Note: Here is a weekly summary and a look ahead.

Below is a sign on the Broadway Auto Row in Oakland on Broadway. This is where the Chrysler/Jeep/Kia dealer used to be - the "Heart of the Marketplace".

Now dark and for lease. A sign of the times (photo credit: Bob)

Oakland Heart of the Marketplace

Jim the Realtor: Monument to Excess

by Calculated Risk on 1/18/2010 06:45:00 PM

First, from the NY Times back in April: Vandals Strip a Vacant Villa in California

Suzy Brown ... was sued by her neighbors and ran afoul of the local planning department over plans to use the villa as a “spiritual retreat” and high-end drug rehabilitation center.

But none of that prepared Ms. Brown for what happened last month when the 16,000-square-foot house fell into foreclosure. Vandals ripped out $1 million worth of fixtures, including toilets, according to a crime report filed on March 26 by a broker for Chevy Chase Bank.
...
Ms. Brown said she and 60 co-investors put $13 million into the construction and maintenance of the property, which they called Vivienda Estate, from 2004 to 2006, combining a $6 million down payment with $7 million from two mortgages and a private loan.

By the time she left last month, she had failed to make payments for one year and owed the bank $6.5 million, she said.
And a video from Jim today, the banked owned property is listed at $2.7 million. Crazy!

Illinois: "state of insolvency"

by Calculated Risk on 1/18/2010 04:00:00 PM

From Crain's ChicagoBusiness: Illinois enters a state of insolvency (ht Walt)

While it appears unlikely or even impossible for a state to hide out from creditors in Bankruptcy Court, Illinois appears to meet classic definitions of insolvency: Its liabilities far exceed its assets, and it's not generating enough cash to pay its bills. ... "I would describe bankruptcy as the inability to pay one's bills," says Jim Nowlan, senior fellow at the University of Illinois' Institute of Government and Public Affairs. "We're close to de facto bankruptcy, if not de jure bankruptcy."
...
Despite a budget shortfall estimated to be as high as $5.7 billion, state officials haven't shown the political will to either raise taxes or cut spending sufficiently to close the gap.

... Unpaid bills to suppliers are piling up. State employees, even legislators, are forced to pay their medical bills upfront because some doctors are tired of waiting to be paid by the state. The University of Illinois, owed $400 million, recently instituted furloughs, and there are fears it may not make payroll in March if the shortfall continues.
There is much more in the article, including a discussion of how pension payments are rising sharply.

For more on the problems of states, see the recent Rockefeller Institute report: Recession or No Recession, State Tax Revenues Remain Negative
The first three quarters of 2009 were the worst on record for states in terms of the decline in overall state tax collections, as well as the change in personal income and sales tax collections. The Great Recession hit virtually every single source of tax revenue and pushed a number of states to revise revenue forecasts numerous times throughout fiscal 2009 and 2010, with significant impacts on services.

Preliminary data for the October-December quarter suggest that fiscal conditions remain weak. ... While December data could change this troubling picture, there is little reason to expect reported revenues for that month to be strong. Continued weakness in revenues, along with continued if more moderate growth in expenditures, make further mid-year budget revisions and spending cuts highly likely.

According to the National Conference of State Legislatures (NCSL), new budget gaps have opened in at least 31 states since FY 2010 began. ... The continued weakening of state tax revenues in fiscal 2010 will force states to take further drastic measures.

More Hotels Opening in 2010

by Calculated Risk on 1/18/2010 02:02:00 PM

Here is a followup to my earlier post about more hotel rooms coming online amid the worst occupancy slump since the Great Depression ...

From Jane Levere at the NY Times: Ailing Hotel Industry Is on Brink of Major Expansion

Though it may seem counterintuitive at a time when many hotels around the country are having trouble filling their rooms, nearly 100 hotels are scheduled to open in major American cities this year.

New York will have the most new hotels, 46, according to Smith Travel Research, a hotel research company in Hendersonville, Tenn., followed by Houston with 30. New hotels are opening as well in Atlanta, Boston, Chicago, Dallas, Miami, Los Angeles and Washington, D.C. That does not include new hotels opening in the suburbs of these cities.

So how can so many hotels be opening even though the economy and travel remain so slow?

The answer, according to Mark Lomanno, president of Smith Travel Research, is that “hotel building cycles rarely mesh just right with economic cycles.” Planning a new hotel can take two to four years and construction another one to four years. ...
This is probably the final surge in hotel construction related to the CRE bubble.

Lodging Investment as Percent of GDP Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows investment in lodging as a percent of GDP since 1959 through Q3 2009 (data from BEA).

Even though lodging investment is falling rapidly, the level is still very high from a historical perspective because, as Mark Lomanno noted, it takes several years to finish major hotel projects.

As these hotels are completed in 2010, lodging investment will fall to low levels for several years as happened in previous investment busts. And that means more construction job losses are coming.

Oil Prices and Domestic Petroleum Exploration and Wells Investment

by Calculated Risk on 1/18/2010 11:05:00 AM

In late 2008 we discussed that the dramatic decline in oil prices would lead to a sharp decline in domestic investment in petroleum exploration and wells. Sure enough domestic investment was cut by 50% in the 2nd half of 2009 ...

The following graph compares real oil prices (data from the St. Louis Fed, adjusted with CPI) and real investment in petroleum exploration and wells in the U.S. (data from the BEA).

This doesn't include investment in alternative energy sources.

Oil Prices and Investment Click on graph for larger image in new window.

Not surprisingly there is a strong correlation between oil prices and investment. With oil prices now around $80 per barrel again, domestic investment will probably increase in 2010.

The increase in oil prices is also concerning. Notice that large increases in oil prices have frequently been followed by recessions. This is a topic that Professor Hamilton has researched and discussed several times over the years, see: Will rising oil prices derail the recovery? Of course oil prices are still far below the peak.

Note: right scale doesn't start at zero to show the correlation between the series.

Principal Reduction and Walking Away

by Calculated Risk on 1/18/2010 08:46:00 AM

A couple of quotes from an article by James Hagerty in the WSJ: Is Slashing Mortgage Principal the Answer?

... Assistant Treasury Secretary Michael Barr ... suggested that there would be a risk that such a [principal] program would change a lot of borrowers’ behavior. “Most people, most of the time, make their mortgage payments ... even if they’re underwater,” Mr. Barr noted. “You have to be quite careful not to design a program that induces more people to walk away” ...
This is a major concern. A couple weeks ago I wrote: New Research on Mortgage Modifications and Principal Reduction
Imagine what would happen to Wells Fargo or Bank of America if their borrowers found out that the banks would substantially reduce their principal if they were 1) underwater (negative equity), and 2) stopped making their payments. The delinquency rate and losses would skyrocket!
Because of this risk, a macro principal reduction program is very unlikely.

And another quote from the WSJ:
Tom Capasse, a principal at Waterfall Asset Management LLC, a New York-based investor in mortgages, says it’s too late to prevent a “seismic shift” in borrower behavior ... “There used to be a scarlet D on your forehead if you defaulted,” says Mr. Capasse. “Now it’s a badge of honor.”
Not quite a "badge of honor", but the widespread acceptance of "walking away" has been one of the greatest fears of lenders for some time.

Sunday, January 17, 2010

Report: Wall St. Considers Constitutional Challenge to Responsibility Fee

by Calculated Risk on 1/17/2010 10:06:00 PM

From Eric Dash at the NY Times: Wall St. Weighs a Constitutional Challenge to a Proposed Tax

In an e-mail message sent last week to the heads of Wall Street legal departments, executives of the lobbying group, the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association, wrote that a bank tax might be unconstitutional because it would unfairly single out and penalize big banks ... [and]has hired a top Supreme Court litigator to study a possible legal battle ...

Privately, executives at several large banks said they believed a legal battle was doomed to fail in Washington and risked escalating public rage over the bailouts of the banks.
The fee is imposed only on banks with "more than $50 billion in consolidated assets", and on the liabilities "excluding FDIC-assessed deposits and insurance policy reserves". It is hard to imagine that would be unconstitutional.

NAHB Housing Market Index and Housing Starts

by Calculated Risk on 1/17/2010 06:22:00 PM

Since the NAHB Housing Market Index for January, and Housing Starts for December will both be released this week, here is a graph showing the relationship between the two series:

HMI and Starts Correlation Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph compares the NAHB HMI (left scale) with single family housing starts (right scale). This includes the December release for the HMI and the November data for single family starts.

This shows that the HMI and single family starts mostly move in the same direction - although there is plenty of noise month-to-month.

I know I'm a broken record, but residential investment is one of the best leading indicators for the economy, and the best indicators for RI are the NAHB HMI, housing starts, and new home sales. And these indicators are moving sideways (at best).

Note: The largest components of residential investment are new home construction, and home improvement. This includes brokers' commissions and some minor categories.

Weekly Summary and a Look Ahead

by Calculated Risk on 1/17/2010 01:00:00 PM

The last half of every month is filled with real estate related data, and this week the NAHB Housing Market Index (builder confidence for January) will be released on Tuesday, Housing Starts for December and the ABI Architecture Billings Index on Wednesday, and the Moodys/REAL Commercial Property Price Index for November will be released sometime this week.

Expectations are for housing starts to be essentially flat in December, from MarketWatch:

The consensus forecast of economists surveyed by MarketWatch calls for a 3% decline in starts to a seasonally adjusted rate of 555,000 from 574,000 in November.
In other economic news, the Producer Price Index will be released on Wednesday, the Philly Fed survey on Thursday, and the DOT's estimate of vehicle miles for November will be released this week.

The markets will be closed on Monday for Martin Luther King Jr. day.

And a summary of last week ...

  • BLS: Near Record Low Job Openings in November

    Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey Click on graph for larger image in new window.

    This following graph shows job openings (yellow line), hires (purple Line), Quits (light blue bars) and Layoff, Discharges and other (red bars) from the JOLTS. Red and light blue added together equals total separations.

    Notice that hires (purple line) and separations (red and light blue together) are pretty close each month. When the purple line is above total separations, the economy is adding net jobs, when the blue line is below total separations, the economy is losing net jobs.

    According to the JOLTS report, there were 4.176 million hires in November, and 4.340 million separations, or 164 thousand net jobs lost. The comparable CES report showed a gain of 4 thousand jobs in November (after revisions).

  • Option ARM Recast Update

    The following data is from Amherst Securities:

    Option This chart shows the expected payment shock coming in 2010 and 2011 from Option ARMs. This chart includes projected increases in LIBOR (if LIBOR stays low, the shock will not be as high), and the recast due to reamortizing the loan over the remaining period.

    For more details, see: Option ARM Recast Update and More on Option ARMs

    Option On negative equity, this graph from Amherst shows the CLTV for various mortgage products. Note that subprime and Alt-A had a somewhat higher percent of borrowers with negative equity than prime - but Option ARMs (red) borrowers are mostly in negative equity!

    As Laurie Goodman at Amherst Securities noted, Option ARM borrowers were a self selecting group (people stretching to buy homes) and that is why most have negative equity in their homes.

    Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization Increase in December

    Capacity UtilizationThis graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up from the record low set in June (the series starts in 1967), and still below the level of last year.

    Note: y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

    Industrial production is still 10.7% below the level of December 2007.

    Here is the report from the Fed: Industrial production and Capacity Utilization

  • Trade Deficit Increases in November

    U.S. Trade Exports ImportsThis graph shows the monthly U.S. exports and imports in dollars through November 2009.

    Both imports and exports increased in November. On a year-over-year basis, exports are off 2.3% and imports are off 5.5%.

    Overall trade continues to increase, although both imports and exports are still off significantly from the pre-financial crisis levels. Net export growth had been one of the positives for the U.S. economy - but now imports are growing faster than exports.

    Here is the Census Bureau report on trade.

  • Other Economic Stories ...

  • From Fitch: U.S. CMBS Delinquencies up 42bps; Peak Not Until 2012

  • HUD Probes FHA Lenders: HUD Inspector General Probes Morgage Companies with Significant Claim Rates

  • Rail Traffic in 2009: Lowest since at least 1988

  • From RealtyTrac: 2009 was Record Year for Foreclosure Filings

  • From Tom Petruno at the LA Times: California's debt rating cut to A-minus by S & P on budget woes

  • From The Times: Britain's recession the steepest for 88 years

  • And from Statistischen Bundesamtes Deutschland: Germany experiencing serious recession in 2009

  • Retail Sales decline slightly in December

  • From Treasury: Fact Sheet: Financial Crisis Responsibility Fee

  • Unofficial Problem Bank List Increases to 582

  • On Q4 GDP: Q4 GDP: Beware the Blip and from Professor Krugman: Blip

    Best wishes to all. My thoughts are with the people of Haiti.

  • Mortgage Lenders Working Around New 'Good Faith Estimate' Rules

    by Calculated Risk on 1/17/2010 09:43:00 AM

    From Kenneth Harney at the LA Times: Mortgage lenders exploit a loophole in HUD's new 'good faith estimate' rules

    Starting Jan. 1, mortgage lenders nationwide were required to begin issuing new "good faith estimates" [GFE] to applicants covering loan fees and settlement charges.

    Under the regulations issued by the Department of Housing and Urban Development, the estimates that lenders provide upfront must be accurate -- the same or nearly the same as the fees that are later charged at closing.
    ...
    So how have the first two weeks of the reforms been going? Not exactly as planned. Many loan officers and lending institutions are sidestepping the new, price-bound GFE by giving shoppers "work sheets" and "loan scenario" forms that come with no legal requirements for accuracy, and were not even contemplated under the reforms.

    In effect they are substitutes for the new GFEs but, in the wrong hands, they are open to lowballing and bait-and-switch games.

    The work sheets purport to contain much of the information provided by a GFE. Typically they are issued only when shoppers do not provide -- or are asked not to provide -- key information that constitutes an "application" under HUD's definition in the rules.
    In certain circumstances this makes sense, although it is open to abuse. As Harney notes, some lenders used to low ball the estimate of fees, and then surprise the borrowers with higher costs at closing. The GFE was intended to eliminate this practice.

    Perhaps HUD could add an additional rule that says "worksheets" must require: 1) a description of what a GFE is, and 2) a clear statement that the worksheet is not a GFE, and 3) what additional information the borrower needs to provide to get a GFE. Who could object to that?

    Colbert: Honor Bound

    by Calculated Risk on 1/17/2010 12:51:00 AM

    Here is the link to the Colbert video.

    The Colbert ReportMon - Thurs 11:30pm / 10:30c
    The Word - Honor Bound
    www.colbertnation.com
    Colbert Report Full EpisodesPolitical HumorEconomy

    Saturday, January 16, 2010

    Still More Hotels Being Completed During Slump

    by Calculated Risk on 1/16/2010 09:08:00 PM

    Even with occupancy rates at record lows since the Great Depression, there are still a number of hotel projects being completed. It takes a number of years to build a new hotel, and all these projects were planned during the bubble years.

    This has significant implications for non-residential investment and construction employment in 2010. As these large projects are completed, there will be more construction job losses, and less investment in non-residential structures.

    And it definitely doesn't help the occupancy rate to have more rooms!

    From the LA Times: New L.A. luxury hotels face tough debuts

    The newest downtown hotel complex buzzed with activity this week as carpenters, electricians and gardeners hustled to put the finishing touches on the $970-million skyscraper that rises over the Los Angeles Convention Center and the L.A. Live entertainment center.

    But when the glass-sheathed tower that houses the JW Marriott and Ritz-Carlton hotels opens next month, it will face one of the worst slumps in years for the hospitality business.
    ...
    In 2009, hotel revenues took their steepest decline in more than two decades, and the occupancy rate in Los Angeles now hovers at a meager 65%.
    ...
    Other upscale hotels are also opening in Los Angeles under economic clouds this year, all aiming to survive the steep drop in demand.

    The $360-million W Hollywood Hotel & Residences at the corner of Hollywood and Vine is scheduled to open Jan. 28.

    Krugman: Curb your enthusiasm

    by Calculated Risk on 1/16/2010 06:21:00 PM

    As a followup to my previous post, Professor Krugman points out that Q1 2002 GDP growth1 was originally reported as 5.8% with rising unemployment. Good point.

    Although Q1 2002 GDP growth was later revised down to 3.5%, it is another good example of a "GDP blip" driven by changes in inventory (inventory changes added 2.63% to the final 3.5%), with weak underlying demand (PCE was 1% in Q1 2002 - and stayed weak into 2003).

    Krugman notes "at the time there was much unwarranted celebration (unemployment didn’t peak until summer 2003)."

    I expect some unwarranted celebration this time too - and the unemployment rate to continue to increase.

    Note: I don't have a crystal ball, but I'm not just being bearish - I called the 2nd half recovery in GDP pretty early and I've been consistently concerned about 2010.

    1GDP growth refers to the headline BEA number. That is the seasonally adjusted annualized real rate of GDP growth.

    Q4 GDP: Beware the Blip

    by Calculated Risk on 1/16/2010 02:24:00 PM

    In a research note released last night, Goldman Sachs raised their estimate of Q4 GDP from 4.0% to 5.8%. They cautioned that the "headline will be an eye-popper", but that this growth is mostly due to inventory changes: "More than two-thirds of our estimated increase comes from a sudden stabilization in inventories". They also noted "anything between 4½% and 7% is possible given the volatility of the inventory data".

    The rest of the note cautions on 2010, and Goldman still sees sluggish growth of just under 2.0% with the unemployment rate peaking in early 2011.

    This is what we've been discussing - GDP boosted by inventory changes in the 2nd half of 2009, followed by sluggish growth in 2010.

    San Francisco Fed President described the impact of inventory changes back in September: The Outlook for Recovery in the U.S. Economy

    I expect the biggest source of expansion in the second half of this year to come from a diminished pace of inventory liquidation by manufacturers, wholesalers, and retailers. Such a pattern is typical of business cycles. Inventory investment often is the catalyst for economic recoveries. True, the boost is usually fairly short-lived, but it can be quite important in getting things going. ...
    But what if this doesn't "get things going"?

    When was the last time we saw 5%+ GDP growth, due mostly to inventory changes, and increasing unemployment? It was in Q1 1981.

    The 1980 recession ended in Q3 1980, and inventory changes boosted Q4 GDP by 3.8%, and Q1 1981 GDP by an amazing 6.4%! However underlying demand remained weak (as defined by GDP ex-inventory changes, and PCE) as shown in the following table:

      1980-IV 1981-I 1981-II 2009-III 2009-IV1
    GDP7.6%8.6%-3.2%2.2%5.8%est
    GDP ex-Inventory Changes3.8%2.2%0.8%1.5%2.0%est
    PCE3.4%1.5%0.0%2.0%1.7%est
    Change in Unemployment Rate-0.3%0.2%0.1%0.3%0.2%

    Look at the blue period, and notice the boost in GDP from inventory changes in the Q4 1980, and Q1 1981. But PCE was only 1.5% in Q1 1980, and fell to 0.0% in Q2 1980. Since there was no pickup in underlying demand, the economy slid back into recession in July 1981.

    Now the causes of the current recession are very different from the early '80s, but once again we are seeing a transitory boost from inventory changes and underlying demand remains weak. With the huge overhang of existing home inventory and record rental vacancies, and the ongoing repair of household balance sheets, I expect underlying demand to remain weak in 2010.

    The blip in the 2nd half from inventory changes was expected, and I expect Q4 to be the best quarter for GDP for some time.

    1 Q4 2009 is estimated. GDP is from Goldman Sachs, and ex-inventory and PCE is from my own estimate.

    "FCIC Interviewing the Wrong People"

    by Calculated Risk on 1/16/2010 10:57:00 AM

    Jillayne Schlicke writes: The Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission is Interviewing the Wrong People

    If the Commission really does want to learn WHO knew what, when, then they’re interviewing the wrong people.

    They need to interview the line workers. Mortgage loan processors, managers, escrow closers, underwriters from the banks, private mortgage insurance companies as well as wholesale lending, loan servicing default and loss mitigation workers and even consumers. Seasoned mortgage industry veterans who have proof in the form of saved memos or emails, that they informed senior management of the red flags, predatory lending, and the insane relaxation of underwriting guidelines that started to pop up as early as 2001 and 2002 yet were ignored or whose concerns were dismissed.
    I think this is the key - instead of interviewing bank CEOs and top regulators, start with the field examiners and the "line workers" in the mortgage industry. And as Jillayne noted, talk to the consumers too.

    HUD Changes FHA Rule for Flipping

    by Calculated Risk on 1/16/2010 05:00:00 AM

    From HUD: HUD takes action to speed resale of foreclosed properties to new owners (ht Soylent Green is People)

    ... With certain exceptions, FHA currently prohibits insuring a mortgage on a home owned by the seller for less than 90 days. This temporary waiver will give FHA borrowers access to a broader array of recently foreclosed properties.
    ...
    In today's market, FHA research finds that acquiring, rehabilitating and the reselling these properties to prospective homeowners often takes less than 90 days. Prohibiting the use of FHA mortgage insurance for a subsequent resale within 90 days of acquisition adversely impacts the willingness of sellers to allow contracts from potential FHA buyers because they must consider holding costs and the risk of vandalism associated with allowing a property to sit vacant over a 90-day period of time.

    The policy change will permit buyers to use FHA-insured financing to purchase HUD-owned properties, bank-owned properties, or properties resold through private sales. This will allow homes to resell as quickly as possible, helping to stabilize real estate prices and to revitalize neighborhoods and communities.
    ...
    The waiver will take effect on February 1, 2010 and is effective for one year, unless otherwise extended or withdrawn by the FHA Commissioner. To protect FHA borrowers against predatory practices of "flipping" where properties are quickly resold at inflated prices to unsuspecting borrowers, this waiver is limited to those sales meeting the following general conditions:
    •All transactions must be arms-length, with no identity of interest between the buyer and seller or other parties participating in the sales transaction.
    •In cases in which the sales price of the property is 20 percent or more above the seller's acquisition cost, the waiver will only apply if the lender meets specific conditions.
    •The waiver is limited to forward mortgages, and does not apply to the Home Equity Conversion Mortgage (HECM) for purchase program.
    Specific conditions and other details of this new temporary policy are in the text of the waiver, available on HUD's website.
    The title of the document is WaivPropFlip2010.pdf (probably stands for Waiver Property Flipper - aptly named)!

    To be clear, this change isn't to help flippers buy - this change is to help homeowners to buy from flippers. Previously the flipper had to own the home for 90 days for the next buyer to obtain an FHA loan, now the period can be less. The 20% price increase is not a limit, however higher price increases require extra verification.

    Friday, January 15, 2010

    Treasury: No Further HAMP Extensions

    by Calculated Risk on 1/15/2010 11:59:00 PM

    UPDATE: The trials modification period was originally 3 months, and then was extended to 5 months, and then extended to the end of January. This means that for the borrowers in the trial modification program, there will be no further extensions. For borrowers just entering the trial phase, they will have the normal three month period.

    From the WSJ: Paperwork Woes Plague Mortgage Plan

    The administration last month gave borrowers who were current on their payments after at least three months an extension until Jan. 31 to provide needed paperwork. But the administration doesn't plan to extend that deadline, Assistant Treasury Secretary Michael Barr said Friday.

    "We are going to have further guidance for [mortgage] servicers at the end of the month," he said.
    No extension, but "further guidance".

    Unless something changes, distressed sales (foreclosures and short sales) should start to increase in February. BofA's estimates the number ...
    "of homes being taken back by Bank of America [will] range from 11,000 to 14,000 a month in the early part of this year to 29,000 to 35,000 by November and December, said John Ciresi, vice president and portfolio manager for Bank of America in Towson, Md.
    ...
    The system became "clogged" by a voluntary moratorium on foreclosures while banks met the requirements of President Obama's Making Home Affordable mortgage plan program and by state legislation requiring mediation before banks can start the foreclosure process, Ciresi said ...

    Bank of America is getting 40,000 new offers a month on short sales, or homes offered for less than the mortgage balance, Ciresi said."
    Here comes the next wave of distressed sales, and based on the BofA estimates, the wave will build all year.

    Here was an earlier post today: HAMP: 66,465 Permanent Mods

    Here is the Press Release from Treasury: Administration Releases December Loan Modification Report, Update on Conversion Drive and the December HAMP report.

    Unofficial Problem Bank List Increases to 582

    by Calculated Risk on 1/15/2010 09:30:00 PM

    This is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.

    Changes and comments from surferdude808:

    Since last week, the Unofficial Problem Bank List increased by a net 6 institutions to 582 and aggregate assets were virtually unchanged.

    There was removal, which was the failed Horizon Bank ($1,3 billion). Seven institutions were added, with most being smaller national banks as the OCC released its actions for December 2009.

    As suggested in the narrative last week, there were several national banks added back to list as the OCC replaced terminated Formal Agreements with Consent Orders. These add backs include First National Bank of Baldwin County, Foley, AL ($263 million); Capitol National Bank, Lansing, MI ($229 million); and First National Bank of Wyoming, Laramie, WY ($218 million.

    The only other modification was a Prompt Corrective Action order issued by the Federal Reserve against Old Southern Bank, Orlando, FL ($384 million).
    The list is compiled from regulator press releases or from public news sources (see Enforcement Action Type link for source). The FDIC data is released monthly with a delay, and the Fed and OTC data is more timely. The OCC data is a little lagged. Credit: surferdude808.

    See description below table for Class and Cert (and a link to FDIC ID system).

    For a full screen version of the table click here.

    The table is wide - use scroll bars to see all information!

    NOTE: Columns are sortable - click on column header (Assets, State, Bank Name, Date, etc.)



    Class: from FDIC
    The FDIC assigns classification codes indicating an institution's charter type (commercial bank, savings bank, or savings association), its chartering agent (state or federal government), its Federal Reserve membership status (member or nonmember), and its primary federal regulator (state-chartered institutions are subject to both federal and state supervision). These codes are:
  • N National chartered commercial bank supervised by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency
  • SM State charter Fed member commercial bank supervised by the Federal Reserve
  • NM State charter Fed nonmember commercial bank supervised by the FDIC
  • SA State or federal charter savings association supervised by the Office of Thrift Supervision
  • SB State charter savings bank supervised by the FDIC
  • Cert: This is the certificate number assigned by the FDIC used to identify institutions and for the issuance of insurance certificates. Click on the number and the Institution Directory (ID) system "will provide the last demographic and financial data filed by the selected institution".