by Calculated Risk on 12/19/2009 08:40:00 AM

The Senate passed another extension of unemployment benefits and Cobra insurance premiums this morning as part of the Defense spending bill. This bill had already passed the House.

In addition to the defense spending, the bill contained an extension of the date for qualification for existing tiers of unemployment benefits to Feb. 28th 2010 (previously only those losing benefits by Dec 31, 2009 qualified). Also the Cobra insurance premium subsidy was extended for two months.

This issue will be revisited early next year for those losing benefits after February.

From the WSJ: Senate Sends Defense Bill to Obama

by Calculated Risk on 12/19/2009 12:11:00 AM

From the WSJ: Down-Payment Standards Eased

Earlier this month, MGIC removed New Orleans, Dover, Del., Akron, Ohio, and four other areas in Ohio from its list of restricted markets. ...

Under the looser requirements, a borrower with a credit score of 680 or higher in New Orleans, for instance, can finance up to 95% of a home's value. Before the change, a borrower who wanted to finance that much of a home's value would have needed a credit score of at least 700.

In September, Genworth Financial Inc. winnowed its list of declining and distressed markets to five states: Arizona, California, Florida, Michigan and Nevada.

The changes are small. As the article notes, this is due to slightly improved markets and an attempt to regain market share from the FHA.

I wonder if this is related - just two weeks ago: Wisconsin Regulator Approves MGIC Regulatory Cap Waiver Thru 2011 (ht jb)

Mortgage insurance giant MGIC Investment Corp. (MTG) announced, Thursday, that the Office of the Commissioner of Insurance for the State of Wisconsin approved the company’s revised business plan and agreed to waive minimum regulatory capital requirements until Dec. 31, 2011.

by Calculated Risk on 12/18/2009 09:30:00 PM

This is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.

NOTE: This was compiled prior to the bank failures today.

Changes and comments from surferdude808:

The OCC released its actions for November, which contributed to an increase in the number of institutions and aggregate assets on the Unofficial Problem Bank List. The list includes 551 institutions with aggregate assets of $305 billion, up from 539 institutions with assets of $298 billion last week.

Removals this week include the three failures Friday – SolutionsBank ($511 million), Republic Federal Bank National Association ($433 million), and Valley Capital Bank, National Association ($40 million).

This week, 15 institutions with total assets of $8.1 billion were added to Unofficial Problem Bank List. Large additions include Riverside National Bank of Florida, Fort Pierce, FL ($3.5 billion); First Community Bank, National Association, Sugar Land, TX ($855 million); Beach First National Bank, Myrtle Beach, SC ($646 million); and First Bank Richmond, National Association, Richmond, IN ($637 million).

Two weeks ago, we removed Riverside National Bank, First National Bank of the Rockies, and First National Bank of Griffin and, last week, we removed Beach First National Bank, when the OCC terminated their Formal Agreements. As mentioned then, the OCC may replace the terminated Formal Agreement with another action; hence, this week these four banks come back on the list as they are now under a Consent Agreement.

The list is compiled from regulator press releases or from public news sources (see Enforcement Action Type link for source). The FDIC data is released monthly with a delay, and the Fed and OTC data is more timely. The OCC data is a little lagged. Credit: surferdude808.

Note: The FDIC announced there were 552 bank on the official Problem Bank list at the end of Q3. The difference is a mostly a matter of timing - some enforcement actions haven't been announced yet, and others may be pending.

See description below table for Class and Cert (and a link to FDIC ID system).

For a full screen version of the table click here.

The table is wide - use scroll bars to see all information!

NOTE: Columns are sortable - click on column header (Assets, State, Bank Name, Date, etc.)





Class: from FDIC

The FDIC assigns classification codes indicating an institution's charter type (commercial bank, savings bank, or savings association), its chartering agent (state or federal government), its Federal Reserve membership status (member or nonmember), and its primary federal regulator (state-chartered institutions are subject to both federal and state supervision). These codes are:

N National chartered commercial bank supervised by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

SM State charter Fed member commercial bank supervised by the Federal Reserve

NM State charter Fed nonmember commercial bank supervised by the FDIC

SA State or federal charter savings association supervised by the Office of Thrift Supervision

SB State charter savings bank supervised by the FDIC

Cert: This is the certificate number assigned by the FDIC used to identify institutions and for the issuance of insurance certificates. Click on the number and the Institution Directory (ID) system "will provide the last demographic and financial data filed by the selected institution".

by Calculated Risk on 12/18/2009 08:04:00 PM

One Forty arrives
Sun sets on First Federal
Death by Option ARMs
by Soylent Green is People
From the FDIC: OneWest Bank, FSB, Pasadena, California, Assumes All of the Deposits of First Federal Bank of California, Santa Monica, California

First Federal Bank of California, a Federal Savings Bank, Santa Monica, California, was closed today by the Office of Thrift Supervision, which appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as receiver....

As of September 30, 2009, First Federal Bank of California had approximately $6.1 billion in total assets and $4.5 billion in total deposits. ...

The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $146.3 million. ... First Federal Bank of California is the 140th FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the seventeenth in California. The last FDIC-insured institution to be closed in the state was Imperial Capital Bank, La Jolla, earlier today.

That makes seven today ...

by Calculated Risk on 12/18/2009 07:46:00 PM

Zero capital
Imperial imperiled
Taxpayers rescue
by Soylent Green is People
From the FDIC: City National Bank, Los Angeles, California, Assumes All of the Deposits of Imperial Capital Bank, La Jolla, California

Imperial Capital Bank, La Jolla, California, was closed today by the California Department of Financial Institutions, which appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as receiver. ...

As of September 30, 2009, Imperial Capital Bank had approximately $4.0 billion in total assets and $2.8 billion in total deposits. ...

The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $619.2 million. .... Imperial Capital Bank is the 139th FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the sixteenth in California. The last FDIC-insured institution closed in the state was Pacific Coast National Bank, San Clemente, on November 13, 2009.

by Calculated Risk on 12/18/2009 06:29:00 PM

Peoples, Citizens
New South Federal Savings
One Forty Is Near

An Oxymoron
Independent Bankers Bank
Not since Five today.
by Soylent Green is People
From the FDIC: Hancock Bank, Gulfport, Mississippi, Assumes All of the Deposits of Peoples First Community Bank, Panama City, Florida

Peoples First Community Bank, Panama City, Florida, was closed today by the Office of Thrift Supervision, which appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as receiver....

As of September 30, 2009, Peoples First Community Bank had approximately $1.8 billion in total assets and $1.7 billion in total deposits. ...

The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $556.7 million. ... Peoples First Community Bank is the 135th FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the fourteenth in Florida. The last FDIC-insured institution closed in the state was Republic Federal Bank, N.A., Miami, on December 11, 2009.

From the FDIC: FDIC Creates a Deposit Insurance National Bank to Facilitate the Resolution of Citizens State Bank, New Baltimore, Michigan

Citizens State Bank, New Baltimore, Michigan, was closed today by the Michigan Office of Financial and Insurance Regulation, which then appointed Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as receiver. ...

As of September 30, 2009, Citizens State Bank had $168.6 million in total assets and $157.1 million in total deposits. ...

The cost to the FDIC's Deposit Insurance Fund is estimated to be $76.6 million. Citizens State Bank is the 136th bank to fail this year and the fourth in Michigan. The last FDIC-insured institution closed in the state was Home Federal Savings Bank, Detroit, on November 6, 2009

From the FDIC: Beal Bank, Plano, Texas, Assumes All of the Deposits of New South Federal Savings Bank, Irondale, Alabama

New South Federal Savings Bank, Irondale, Alabama, was closed today by the Office of Thrift Supervision, which appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as receiver. ...

As of September 30, 2009, New South Federal Savings Bank had approximately $1.5 billion in total assets and $1.2 billion in total deposits. ...

The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $212.3 million. ... New South Federal Savings Bank is the 137th FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the third in Alabama. The last FDIC-insured institution closed in the state was CapitalSouth Bank, Birmingham, on August 21, 2009.

From the FDIC: FDIC Creates Bridge Bank to Take Over Operations of Independent Bankers' Bank, Springfield, Illinois

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) created a bridge bank to take over the operations of Independent Bankers' Bank, Springfield, Illinois, after the bank was closed today by the Illinois Department of Financial and Professional Regulation—Division of Banking, which appointed the FDIC as receiver. ...

As of September 30, 2009, Independent Bankers' Bank had approximately $585.5 million in assets and $511.5 in deposits. At the time of closing, the bank had an estimated $269,000 in uninsured funds. ...

The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund will be $68.4 million. Independent Bankers' Bank is the 138th bank to fail in the nation this year and the twenty-first in Illinois. The last FDIC-insured institution to fail in the state was Benchmark Bank, Aurora, on December 4, 2009.

Three banks today with no buyer!

by Calculated Risk on 12/18/2009 05:12:00 PM

What happened down South?
Georgian banks fuel the collapse
A Rockbridge too far
by Soylent Green is People
From the FDIC: FDIC Approves the Payout of the Insured Deposits of Rockbridge Commercial Bank, Atlanta, Georgia

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) approved the payout of the insured deposits of RockBridge Commercial Bank, Atlanta, Georgia. ...

The FDIC was unable to find another financial institution to take over the banking operations of RockBridge Commercial Bank. ...

As of September 30, 2009, RockBridge Commercial Bank had approximately $294.0 million in total assets and $291.7 million in total deposits. At the time of closing, the bank had an estimated $2.1 million in uninsured funds. ...

RockBridge Commercial Bank is the 134th FDIC-insured institution to fail this year and the twenty-fifth in Georgia since The Buckhead Community Bank, Atlanta, was closed on December 4, 2009. The FDIC estimates the cost of the failure to its Deposit Insurance Fund to be approximately $124.2 million.

No buyers - a bad sign. And $2.1 million uninsured?

by Calculated Risk on 12/18/2009 04:35:00 PM

From Bloomberg: Moody’s Reviews $143 Billion of Jumbo-Mortgage Bonds (ht Bob_in_MA)

Moody’s Investors Service placed $143 billion of jumbo-mortgage bonds under review for downgrades ... The revisions were prompted by “the rapidly deteriorating performance of jumbo pools in conjunction with macroeconomic conditions that remain under duress,” Moody’s said.

... An “overhang of impending foreclosures will impact home prices negatively,” with values likely to decline 9 percent more ... U.S. unemployment will rise to peak at about 10.6 percent ...

Moody’s also said it expects the U.S. government’s effort to curb foreclosures to be less effective than it previously expected because the programs have “failed to gain traction.”
emphasis added

The problems are moving on up the value chain.

This is a follow-up to this story yesterday: Luxury-Home Owners in U.S. Use ‘Short Sales’ as Defaults Rise (many hts!)

by Calculated Risk on 12/18/2009 03:08:00 PM

"The 1980s trained macroeconomics -- like Greg Mankiw and Ben Bernanke and so forth -- became a very complacent group, very ill adapted to meet with a completely unpredictable and new situation, such as we've had. I looked up ... Mankiw's bestseller, both the macro book and his introductory textbook, I went through the index to look for liquidity trap. It wasn't there!"
Paul Samuelson, June 2009

Here is an interview with Paul Samuelson from June (Dr. Samuelson passed away last weekend at the age of 94):

An Interview With Paul Samuelson, Part One (ht Jonathan)

An Interview With Paul Samuelson, Part Two

On Greenspan and the stock bubble:

"I can remember when some of us -- and I remember there were a lot of us in the late 90s -- said you should do something about the stock bubble. And he kind of said, 'look, reasonable men are putting their money into these things -- who are we to second guess them?' Well, reasonable men are not reasonable when you're in the bubbles which have characterized capitalism since the beginning of time."

by Calculated Risk on 12/18/2009 12:45:00 PM

Update comment: I feel torn about digging into Chairman Bernanke's private affairs, but this seems to be in the public interest based on Bernanke's comments, his position, and the current crisis.

Effective Demand has some more details: So I pulled Bernanke's mortgage...

Bernanke bought in May 2004 for $839,000. He had a 5/1 ARM for $671,200 at 4.125% that adjusted to 12 month Libor in June of each year after his fixed period ended. To calculate his rate you take 12 month Libor on that date and add 2.250%, it can't adjust more than 2% in any one year due to restrictions on the note. He also had a purchase money second $83,900 but for some reason I can't find the interest rate on that one, nor do I see an ARM rider for it so it could very well be fixed. Both notes indicate they are amortizing loans.

So what does this all mean? Well according to the terms I see for Bernanke's first and the little information on historic LIBOR I can find (here)... his rate actually went down.

How did it "explode" if his rate went down?

I was assuming this was an Option ARM and Chairman Bernanke was paying the negatively amortizing payment. Then, when the loan recast to amortize over the remaining term (25 years), the payment would have increased significantly.

But Effective Demand's information raises several questions: Why did Bernanke refi? What did he mean by "explode", and was his home underwater when he refinanced since he bought in 2004 and apparently borrowed 90% LTV with only 10% down.

by Calculated Risk on 12/18/2009 10:54:00 AM

In general the unemployment rates declined in November along with the national rate, however the unemployment rate hit new record highs in Florida and South Carolina.

From the BLS: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment Summary

Regional and state unemployment rates were generally lower in November. Thirty-six states and the District of Columbia recorded over-the-month unemployment rate decreases, 8 states registered rate increases, and 6 states had no rate change, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the year, jobless rates increased in all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
...
Michigan again recorded the highest unemployment rate among the states, 14.7 percent in November. The states with the next highest rates were Rhode Island, 12.7 percent, and California, Nevada, and South Carolina, 12.3 percent each. North Dakota continued to register the lowest jobless rate, 4.1 percent in November, followed by
Nebraska, 4.5 percent, and South Dakota, 5.0 percent. The rate in South Carolina set a new series high, as did the rate in Florida (11.5 percent).
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the high and low unemployment rates for each state (and D.C.) since 1976. The red bar is the current unemployment rate (sorted by the current unemployment rate).

Fourteen states and D.C. now have double digit unemployment rates. New Jersey, Indiana, and Mississippi are all close.

Two states are at record unemployment rates: Florida and South Carolina, and several other states are close.

by Calculated Risk on 12/18/2009 09:18:00 AM

Note: this is not seasonally adjusted. There is a very distinct seasonal pattern for imports, but not for exports. LA area ports handle about 40% of nation's container port traffic.

Sometimes port traffic gives us an early hint of changes in the trade deficit. The following graph shows the loaded inbound and outbound traffic at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or 20-foot-long cargo container). Although containers tell us nothing about value, container traffic does give us an idea of the volume of goods being exported and imported.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

Loaded inbound traffic was 13.1% below November 2008. (-15.1% over last three months)

Loaded outbound traffic was 11.4% above November 2008. (+0.8% three months average)

U.S. exports fell off a cliff in November 2008, but it took a little longer for imports to decline sharply (because the ships were already underway).

There was a clear recovery in U.S. exports earlier this year; however exports have been mostly flat since May. Still this year will be the 3rd best year for export traffic at LA area ports, behind 2007 and 2008.

For imports, traffic is below the November 2003 level, and 2009 will be the weakest year for import traffic since 2002.

Note: Imports usually peak in the August through October period (as retailers import goods for the holidays) and then decline in November.

The lack of further export growth to Asia is definitely discouraging.

by Calculated Risk on 12/18/2009 08:29:00 AM

From the WaPo: Kucinich panel to investigate Citigroup tax ruling

House subcommittee said Thursday that it will investigate the Treasury Department's decision to change a long-standing law so that Citigroup could keep billions of dollars in tax breaks.
...
The Internal Revenue Service ... ruled last Friday that Citigroup could keep $38 billion in tax breaks that otherwise would decline in value as the government sells its stake in the company. Federal law lets companies shelter profits from taxes in good years based on the amount of losses in previous bad years. But the law restricts the use of past losses if a company changes hands, to discourage profitable companies from buying unprofitable firms to avoid paying taxes.

Treasury's plan to sell its $25 billion stake in Citigroup would have qualified as a change of ownership under the law. ... Treasury officials said the government needed to grant the tax break in order to sell its shares in Citigroup because the company could not afford the loss. Officials also said that preserving the tax break would help the government sell its shares at a higher price.

The key question is who benefits from the law change? The value of the shares the U.S. owns should increase, but only 34% of the share price increase accrues to U.S. taxpayers The other current shareholders receive the rest.

Of course the U.S. delayed selling shares because of the weak Citi share price (Treasury would have had to sell at a loss), but this is still an issue when Treasury eventually sells.

by Calculated Risk on 12/17/2009 09:26:00 PM

Just a Bank Failure Friday warm up post ... first, the CEO of Barnes Bank is expecting a PCA:

From Paul Beebe at the Salt Lake Tribune: Beleaguered Barnes Bank to brief shareholders

Barnes Bank, under orders to shore up its capital and fix other financial problems, will tell shareholders in a special meeting Friday how much headway it's making.
...
Asked if Barnes is healthy, [Curtis Harris, president and CEO] said, "I probably wouldn't make a comment on that right now."
...
"We understand that a PCA (prompt corrective action order) may be coming. We are looking for that to be coming," Harris said.

I'm not sure I've ever heard a bank CEO say he expects a PCA. Basically PCAs are Hail Mary passes with a low probability of success. Note: It is common for banks to be seized without a PCA ever being issued.

Barnes had $827 million in assets at the end of Q3. They have been operating under a written agreement since May 13th with a 60 day period for compliance (sounds like they didn't meet that deadline!).

Also - earlier this week - the FDIC announced plans to hire over 1,600 temporary employees in 2010 to assist with bank closings: FDIC Board Approves 2010 Operating Budget

The 2010 operating budget will increase more than $1.4 billion (55%) from 2009, primarily due to the cyclical nature of bank failures. The receivership funding component of the 2010 budget, the vast majority of which is funded by receiverships, will be $2.5 billion, up from $1.3 billion in 2009. This includes funding for the continuing work associated with bank failures that have occurred over the past two years. The budget also contains contingency funding for the possible continuation of an elevated number of bank failures in 2010. The 2010 budget increase also is partially attributable to increased supervisory activity related to the rising number of troubled banks which the FDIC oversees.

In conjunction with its approval of the 2010 operating budget, the Board also approved an authorized 2010 staffing level of 8,653 employees, up from 7,010 in 2009. Almost all the additional staff will be hired on a temporary basis. They will be hired primarily to assist with bank closings; to perform follow-on work related to the management and sale of failed bank assets; and to conduct bank examinations and perform other bank supervisory activities.

Friday afternoons will be busy in 2010.

by Calculated Risk on 12/17/2009 06:48:00 PM

From Bloomberg: ‘Shadow Inventory’ of U.S. Homes Climbs, Report Says

The number of homes that may be in the pipeline for a sale because of foreclosure and delinquency climbed about 55 percent to 1.7 million at the end of September, according to estimates by First American CoreLogic.
...
“While the visible month’s supply has decreased and is beginning to approach more normal levels, adding in the pending supply reveals there is still quite a bit of inventory that will impact the housing market for the next few years,” First American said.

A few points:

First American CoreLogic is counting the number of homes seriously delinquent or in the foreclosure process.

The 55% increase is from last year (1.1 million to 1.7 million in this category)

The comment at the end about "beginning to approach more normal levels" is about months-of-supply, not total inventory. Obviously months-of-supply is impacted by the surge in sales due to the expected expiration of the homebuyer tax credit.

The term "shadow inventory" is used in different ways. I consider all of the following to be "shadow inventory":

REOs. There are bank owned properties that have not been put on the market yet.

Foreclosures in process and seriously delinquent loans (although some of these may be in the modification process).

New high rise condos. These properties are not included in the new home inventory report from the Census Bureau, and do not show up anywhere unless they are listed.

Homeowners waiting for a better market. These are homeowners waiting for better market conditions to sell.

On high rise, condos from the WSJ (ht William):

In the downtown Miami and neighboring Brickell areas, more than 22,000 condos have been built in the past four years, or more than twice the number added over the previous four decades, says Holliday Fenoglio Fowler LP, which advises real-estate developers and investors.

by Calculated Risk on 12/17/2009 03:44:00 PM

From Bloomberg: Harvard’s Feldstein Says U.S. Economy Still Mired in Recession

Restrained consumer spending suggests “2010 is going to be a very weak year,” said [Harvard University economics professor and former NBER president Martin Feldstein ] “Thrift in the long run is a very good thing, but increasing thrift as you come out of a recession is going to be a drag."
...
Regarding the residential property market ... Feldstein said the Obama administration’s effort to revive the housing market is a failure and home prices will continue to decline.

“It was just not well enough designed,” Feldstein said. “They ended up failing.” That suggests the housing slump will “continue to push down house prices,” he said.

“We saw a little pause in home-price declines in the summer but I think that was because of the first-time home buyers program,” Feldstein said. “We’re not going to get that boost.”

On the recession comments - "The recession isn’t over" - I think he was just referring to the dating of the recession, although he clearly thinks there is a chance of a double dip recession and he expressed concern about is the "danger is we will run out of steam".

by Calculated Risk on 12/17/2009 01:21:00 PM

From HotelNewsNow.com: New Orleans tops increases in STR weekly numbers

Overall, in year-over-year measurements, the industry’s occupancy fell 2.9 percent to 48.1 percent, Average daily rate dropped 5.9 percent to US$96.04, and Revenue per available room decreased 8.6 percent to US$46.22.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the occupancy rate by week for each of the last four years (2006 through 2009 labeled by start of month).

Notes: Some of the holidays don't line up - especially at the end of the year.

Data Source: Smith Travel Research, Courtesy of HotelNewsNow.com (Note: They have a free daily email too for hotel news)

The above graph shows two key points:

This is a two year slump for the hotel industry. Although occupancy is off 2.9% compared to 2008, occupancy is off about 9% compared to 2006 and 2007.

There is a distinct seasonal pattern for the occupancy rate. The occupancy rate is higher in the summer (because of leisure travel), and lower on certain holidays.

The HotelNewsNow press release also has this graph on occupancy variance compared to 2008.

For most of the year business travel (mid-week) has been off significantly more than leisure travel (weekends).

It now appears both categories are off about the same compared to last year.

This seems to be more evidence that the hotel industry has stabilized at this low level as far as occupancy rates, although room rates will still be under pressure because this is the lowest occupancy rate (annual) since the Great Depression.

by Calculated Risk on 12/17/2009 10:59:00 AM

From Bloomberg: Morgan Stanley to Give Up 5 San Francisco Towers Bought at Peak (ht MikeinLongIsland, Brian)

Morgan Stanley ... plans to relinquish five San Francisco office buildings to its lender two years after purchasing them from Blackstone Group LP near the top of the market.

“This isn’t a default or foreclosure situation,” [Alyson Barnes, a Morgan Stanley spokeswoman] said. “We are going to give them the properties to get out of the loan obligation.”
...
The Morgan Stanley buildings may have lost as much as 50 percent since the purchase ...

Note that Morgan Stanley is current on the loan and is not in foreclosure. They are simply "walking away" because the buildings are worth less than the amount owed.

On residential, the WSJ has an article: Debtor's Dilemma: Pay the Mortgage or Walk Away? (ht Sabine). The article contains a graph of "strategic defaults" by state - however I'm not sure how this is estimated. In very few cases does the borrower admit they can afford the payments and are just walking away (like Morgan Stanley above). In most cases the borrower either doesn't respond or says they are having a financial crisis.

From a research paper earlier this year on homeowners with negative equity walking away: Moral and Social Constraints to Strategic Default on Mortgages by Guiso, Sapienza and Zingales.

It is difficult to study the strategic default decision, because it is de facto an unobservable event. While we do observe defaults, we cannot observe whether a default is strategic. Strategic defaulters have all the incentives to disguise themselves as people who cannot afford to pay and so they will appear as non strategic defaulters in all the data.

The researchers argued that the pace of strategic defaults is increasing - and that is terrifying for lenders.

This is what I wrote in 2007:

One of the greatest fears for lenders (and investors in mortgage backed securities) is that it will become socially acceptable for upside down middle class Americans to walk away from their homes.

And that remains the greatest fear - and it probably doesn't help that companies like Morgan Stanley are walking away from commercial buildings. As the researchers noted, the more people hear about strategic defaults, the more willing they are to walk away. Zingales was quoted in the WSJ earlier this year:

“Our research showed there is a multiplication effect, where the social pressure not to default is weakened when homeowners live in areas of high frequency of foreclosures or know others who defaulted strategically”

I wonder if hearing about "rich" banks that are paying "large" bonuses walking away from commercial buildings also weakens the social pressure?

by Calculated Risk on 12/17/2009 10:00:00 AM

Manufacturing has been one of the bright spots for the economy beause of a combination of inventory restocking and increased exports - and the Philly Fed survey shows continued expansion in December. However, it appears the manufacturing boom is slowing - with the new orders index declining (although still positive) and the future activity index declining "notably".

Here is the Philadelphia Fed Index released today: Business Outlook Survey.

Activity in the region's manufacturing sector is expanding, according to firms polled for this month's Business Outlook Survey. Indexes for general activity, new orders, and shipments all remained positive this month. ...

The survey's broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, the diffusion index of current activity, increased from 16.7 in November to 20.4 this month. The index has now remained positive for five consecutive months (see chart). Other broad indicators suggest continued growth this month, but they fell somewhat from their November readings. The current new orders index, which has also remained positive for five consecutive months, decreased 8 points. The current shipments index fell less than 1 point. The current inventory index, although still negative, increased 10 points, to its highest reading in four months. Indicators for unfilled orders and delivery times edged higher and reached their highest readings since well before the recession began at the end of 2007.

Labor market conditions have been stabilizing in recent months, and for the first time since late 2007, more firms reported an increase in employment than reported declines. The current employment index increased 7 points, to its highest reading since October 2007. The workweek index edged four points higher, to 6.4, its second consecutive positive reading. ...

The future general activity index remained positive for the 12th consecutive month but decreased notably from 36.8 in November to 24.4, its lowest reading since March. The future activity index has been trending downward since mid-year. Indexes for future new orders and shipments declined this month, falling 15 points and 7 points, respectively.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the Philly index for the last 40 years.

The index has been positive for five months now, after being negative for 19 of the previous 20 months.

by Calculated Risk on 12/17/2009 08:30:00 AM

The DOL reports on weekly unemployment insurance claims:

In the week ending Dec. 12, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 480,000, an increase of 7,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 473,000. The 4-week moving average was 467,500, a decrease of 5,250 from the previous week's revised average of 472,750.
...
The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Dec. 5 was 5,186,000, an increase of 5,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 5,181,000.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased this week by 5,250 to 467,500. This is the lowest level since September 2008.

Although falling, the level of the 4 week average is still high, suggesting continuing job losses.