by Calculated Risk on 12/11/2009 07:16:00 PM

Note: since I get questions now and then - the Haiku was started long ago and is kind of a tradition.

Valley Capitol
AKA Giant Cash Sinkhole
We can't climb out of

Prairie bank failure
Solution for Solutions:
Arvest to invest
by Soylent Green is People
From the FDIC: Enterprise Bank & Trust, Clayton, Missouri, Assumes All of the Deposits of Valley Capital Bank, National Association, Mesa, Arizona

Valley Capital Bank, National Association, Mesa, Arizona, was closed today by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, which appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as receiver. ...

As of September 30, 2009, Valley Capital Bank had total assets of approximately $40.3 million and total deposits of approximately $41.3 million. ...

The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $7.4 million. ... Valley Capital Bank is the 132nd FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the forth in Arizona. The last FDIC-insured institution closed in the state was Bank USA, National Association, Phoenix, on October 30, 2009.

From the FDIC: Arvest Bank, Fayetteville, Arkansas, Assumes All of the Deposits of SolutionsBank, Overland Park, Kansas

SolutionsBank, Overland Park, Kansas, was closed today by the Office of the State Bank Commissioner of Kansas, which appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as receiver. ...

As of September 30, 2009, SolutionsBank had total assets of $511.1 million and total deposits of approximately $421.3 million. ...

The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $122.1 million. ... SolutionsBank is the 133rd FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the third in Kansas. The last FDIC-insured institution closed in the state was First National Bank of Anthony, Anthony, on June 19, 2009.

Less than $300 million hit to the DIF so far today ...

by Calculated Risk on 12/11/2009 05:16:00 PM

Sunny Miami
Palm trees, warm ocean waters
Plus one toasted bank
by Soylent Green is People
From the FDIC: 1st United Bank, Boca Raton, Florida, Assumes All of the Deposits of Republic Federal Bank, National Association, Miami, Florida

Republic Federal Bank, National Association, Miami, Florida, was closed today by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), which appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as receiver. ...

As of September 30, 2009, Republic Federal Bank, N.A. had total assets of approximately $433.0 million and total deposits of approximately $352.7 million. ...

The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $122.6 million. ... Republic Federal Bank, N.A. is the 131st FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the 13th in Florida. The last FDIC-insured institution closed in the state was Commerce Bank of Southwest Florida, Fort Myers, on November 20, 2009.

An early failure ...

by Calculated Risk on 12/11/2009 04:00:00 PM

Since it is Friday, here are a couple of articles from San Francisco Magazine on some "not-so-smart" apartment loans ... the first on the lender, the second on the borrower.

From David Johnson: When smart money said "no more," not-so-smart Marin bank loaned the Lembis $41 million. (ht Eric)

The Lembi real-estate implosion (see “War of Values,” December 2009) is on the verge of claiming another casualty: little Tamalpais Bank of San Rafael, which lent $41 million to the Lembi family and has now declared virtually its entire portfolio of commercial mortgages to be in default.

... Walter and Frank Lembi, the father and son behind the CitiApartments rental behemoth, used more than $1 billion in financing from international investment banks and purchased more than 170 San Francisco apartment buildings between 2003 and 2008, bringing the total number of buildings they owned to 300 ...

Tamalpais Bank made most of the Lembi loans between December 2007 and April 2008. ... by this past September, the Lembis had defaulted on all except one of their loans, leaving Tamalpais Bank with a $38 million hole in its portfolio. The size of the loans was equivalent to more than 75 percent of the bank’s total capital.

“Lending that much of the bank’s capital to a single borrower is inherently reckless, imprudent, and simply unsafe and unsound,” said Richard Newsom, a retired San Francisco bank regulator. “Originating such a huge concentration of credit to one borrower in that period is beyond unsafe and unsound, because the commercial real-estate market was already starting to crack at that time.”
emphasis added

And from Danelle Morton: War of values

Since 2003, the [Lembi] family, through its various corporate entities, had acquired more than 170 properties—close to $1 billion in real estate—on top of the 130 or so they’d already owned. This briefly made them the largest private landlord in a city where 65 percent of residents are tenants.

There seemed to be no pattern to their acquisitions. They bought everything from grande dames, like the Park Lane on Nob Hill, to ratty dumps in the Tenderloin.
...
The Lembis were primarily interested in properties built before 1979: In other words, buildings covered by rent control. The reason is spelled out in a confidential document prepared by the investment bank Credit Suisse in winter 2008. The document focuses on the group of 24 properties that included the Carlomagno buildings. It shows, unit by unit, how the Lembis planned to replace 85 percent of the tenants. The family had set aside $9 million for “relocation costs,” and another $13 million for renovations. Once the apartments were fixed up, the document states, CitiApartments planned to raise rents by an average of 59 percent.

This is similar to the strategy of the buyers of Peter Cooper Village and Stuyvesant Town in New York; the plan was to somehow remove the rent controlled tenants and increase the rents significantly. It worked about the same.

by Calculated Risk on 12/11/2009 02:33:00 PM

Note: Mortgage cram downs were defeated.

From CNBC: What's In the House Financial Services Reform Bill

Creates the Consumer Financial Protection Agency (CFPA).

Creates inter-agency Financial Stability Council

Provides dissolution authority for “Too Big to Fail”

Executive Compensation: "enables regulators to ban inappropriate or imprudently risky compensation practices, and it requires financial firms to disclose any compensation structures that include incentive-based elements."

More Investor Protections

Regulation of Derivatives

From the NY Times: House Votes to Tighten Regulation of Wall Street

by Calculated Risk on 12/11/2009 11:30:00 AM

Note: This is not MEW data from the Fed. The last MEW data from Fed economist Dr. Kennedy was for Q4 2008. My thanks to Jim Kennedy and the other Fed contributors for the previous MEW updates. For those interested in the last Kennedy data, here is a post, and the spreadsheet from the Fed is available here.

The following data is calculated from the Fed's Flow of Funds data and the BEA supplement data on single family structure investment.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

For Q3 2009, the Net Equity Extraction was minus $91 billion, or negative 3.3% of Disposable Personal Income (DPI). This is not seasonally adjusted.

This graph shows the net equity extraction, or mortgage equity withdrawal (MEW), results, using the Flow of Funds (and BEA data) compared to the Kennedy-Greenspan method.

The Fed's Flow of Funds report showed that the amount of mortgage debt outstanding declined in Q3, and this was partially because of debt cancellation per foreclosure sales, and some from modifications, like Wells Fargo's principal reduction program, and partially due to homeowners paying down their mortgages as opposed to borrowing more. Note: most homeowners pay down their principal a little each month unless they have an IO or Neg AM loan, so with no new borrowing, equity extraction would always be negative.

Equity extraction was very important in increasing consumer spending during the housing bubble (some disagree with this, but I think they are wrong). Atif Mian and Amir Sufi of the University of Chicago Booth School of Business wrote a piece earlier this year: Guest Contribution: Housing Bubble Fueled Consumer Spending

Findings in our research suggest ... the rise in house prices from 2002 to 2006 was a main driver of economic growth during this time period, and the subsequent collapse of house prices is likely a main contributor to the historic consumption decline over the past year.

Don't expect the Home ATM to be reopened any time soon - so any significant increase in consumer spending will come from income growth, not borrowing.

by Calculated Risk on 12/11/2009 10:01:00 AM

From MarketWatch: Consumer sentiment soars in early Dec

Consumer sentiment improved markedly in early December, according to media reports on Friday of the Reuters/University of Michigan index. The consumer sentiment index rose to 73.4 in early December from 67.4 in November. ... This is the highest level of consumer sentiment since September.

Although this is being reported as "soars" and above expectations, sentiment is still low - at recesssion levels - and this is just a rebound to the September level.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

Consumer sentiment is a coincident indicator - it tells you what you pretty much already know.

This graph shows consumer sentiment and the unemployment rate. There are other factors impacting sentiment too - like gasoline prices - but it is no surprise that consumer sentiment is still very low.

by Calculated Risk on 12/11/2009 08:30:00 AM

On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 1.3% from October to November (seasonally adjusted), and sales are up 1.9% from November 2008.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).

This shows that retail sales fell off a cliff in late 2008, and appear to have bottomed, but at a much lower level.

The red line shows retail sales ex-gasoline and shows there has been only a little increase in final demand.

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales since 1993.

Retail sales increased by 1.9% on a YoY basis. The year-over-year comparisons are much easier now since retail sales collapsed in October 2008. Retail sales bottomed in December 2008.

Here is the Census Bureau report:

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for November, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $352.1 billion, an increase of 1.3 percent (±0.5%) from the previous month and 1.9 percent (±0.5%) above November 2008. Total sales for the September through November 2009 period were down 2.1 percent (±0.3%) from the same period a year ago. The September to October 2009 percent change was revised from +1.4 percent (±0.5%) to +1.1 percent (±0.2%).

It appears retail sales have bottomed, and there might be a little pickup in final demand.

by Calculated Risk on 12/10/2009 10:30:00 PM

From David Cho at the WaPo: Joblessness plan revamps rules on bank bailouts (ht Mr. Ridgeback goes to Washington)

The Obama administration is developing a major initiative to tackle ... unemployment by getting federal bailout funds into the hands of small businesses.

The proposal involves spinning off a new entity from the Troubled Assets Relief Program that could give banks access to the government money without restrictions, such as limits on executive pay, as long as they use it to make loans to small businesses. ... No dollar figures have yet been attached to the new small-business lending effort, which is still in development, the sources said.

... [a "special-purpose vehicle"] would be financed by rescue funds and would lend to banks that provide small-business loans. In theory, this structure would free banks of the TARP conditions because they would be getting the money from a separate entity. They could also avoid being labeled as a TARP recipient.

Another SIV proposal, this time to lend TARP money that isn't ... uh, TARP money? Why does this remind me of Hank Paulson?

I'd definitely like to see the plan for the next stimulus package, instead of focusing on these contortions to get it funded.

by Calculated Risk on 12/10/2009 08:19:00 PM

November retail sales will be released tomorrow morning, but December is apparently off to a slow start ...

From the WSJ: Sales Lull Has Retailers Worried

The first week of December, typically a lackluster time in the wake of Black Friday, was particularly slow. ... "After solid traffic the first couple of days, it looks like the middle of August out there," said Stephen Baker, vice president of industry analysis for retail watcher NPD Group.

And on a key category: Videogames Sales Fall Again in November

Combined November videogame software and hardware revenue fell 7.6% from a year earlier to $2.69 billion, data tracker NPD said Thursday. But revenue from videogame sales fell a surprising 3.1% amid expectations of mild growth in the mid-single-digit percentage range.

Without growth in consumer spending, the recovery will be sluggish at best.

by Calculated Risk on 12/10/2009 05:19:00 PM

If there were 143,276 cumulative HAMP trial modifications in June - and the maximum length of a trial was extended to five months - how come there were only 31,382 permanent mods and 30,650 disqualified modifications by the end of November?

What happened to the other 82,244 modifications? Have they been extended?

And of the 697,026 active trial modifications, are all the borrowers current? That data seems to be missing from this release (HAMP report here)

My understanding was the HAMP data would show how many trial modifications had started, and the redefault rate by month. That key data is still missing.

by Calculated Risk on 12/10/2009 02:48:00 PM

Update: Treasury link now working, graphic added.

From Diana Olick at CNBC: First Look: Inside The $75 Billion Plan to Save Housing

Of the 759,058 modifications started, 697,026 are still in the three month trial phase. ... Treasury reports that 31,382 trial modifications are now permanent. ... 30,650 modifications were disqualified.

Olick has much more.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

That is about a 50% failure rate during the trial period - and only a fraction of the eligible borrowers even bother.

Here is the link at Treasury. See here for a list of reports.

by Calculated Risk on 12/10/2009 11:59:00 AM

The Fed released the Q3 2009 Flow of Funds report today: Flow of Funds.

According to the Fed, household net worth is now off $11.9 Trillion from the peak in 2007, but up $4.9 trillion from the trough earlier this year.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This is the Households and Nonprofit net worth as a percent of GDP.

This includes real estate and financial assets (stocks, bonds, pension reserves, deposits, etc) net of liabilities (mostly mortgages). Note that this does NOT include public debt obligations.

Note that this ratio was relatively stable for almost 50 years, and then ... bubbles!

This graph shows homeowner percent equity since 1952.

Household percent equity (of household real estate) was up to 38% from the all time low of 33.5% earlier this year. The increase was due to a slight increase in the value of household real estate and a decline in mortgage debt.

Note: approximately 31% of households do not have a mortgage. So the 50+ million households with mortgages have far less than 38% equity.

The third graph shows household real estate assets and mortgage debt as a percent of GDP. Household assets as a percent of GDP increased in Q3 because of an increase in real estate values.

Mortgage debt declined by $70 billion - but will have to decline substantially (as a percent of GDP) to reach more normal levels.

by Calculated Risk on 12/10/2009 11:16:00 AM

From HotelNewsNow.com: Luxury leads occupancy increases for second week in STR weekly numbers

Overall, in year-over-year measurements, the industry’s occupancy fell 4.9 percent to end the week at 47.6 percent, average daily rate dropped 7.3 percent to US$96.25, and revenue per available room decreased 11.9 percent to US$45.86.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the occupancy rate by week for each of the last four years (2006 through 2009 labeled by start of month).

Notes: the scale doesn't start at zero to better show the change. Thanksgiving was later in 2008 and 2009, so the dip doesn't line up with the previous years.

Data Source: Smith Travel Research, Courtesy of HotelNewsNow.com

This is a two year slump for the hotel industry. Although occupancy is off 4.9% compared to 2008, occupancy is off about 17% compared to the same week in 2006.

Leisure travel (weekend occupancy) is off only about 2% compared to the same week in 2008, but business travel (weekday occupancy) is off more suggesting no pickup in business travel - see the graph in the HotelNewsNow report.

by Calculated Risk on 12/10/2009 08:59:00 AM

The Census Bureau reports:

The ... total October exports of $136.8 billion and imports of $169.8 billion resulted in a goods and services deficit of $32.9 billion, down from $35.7 billion in September, revised. October exports were $3.5 billion more than September exports of $133.4 billion. October imports were $0.7 billion more than September imports of $169.0billion.

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the monthly U.S. exports and imports in dollars through October 2009.

Imports and exports increased in October. On a year-over-year basis, exports are off 9% and imports are off 19%.

The second graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through October.

The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.

Import oil prices decreased slightly to $67.39 in October - still up more than 50% from the prices in February (at $39.22) - and the decline followed seven consecutive monthly increases in the price of oil.

Oil import volumes dropped sharply in October, and the decline in oil imports was the major contributor to decrease in the trade deficit.

by Calculated Risk on 12/10/2009 08:30:00 AM

The DOL reports on weekly unemployment insurance claims:

In the week ending Dec. 5, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 474,000, an increase of 17,000 from the previous week's unrevised figure of 457,000. The 4-week moving average was 473,750, a decrease of 7,750 from the previous week's revised average of 481,500.
...
The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Nov. 28 was 5,157,000, a decrease of 303,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 5,460,000.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased this week by 7,750 to 473,750. This is the lowest level since October 2008.

Although falling, the level of the 4 week average is still high, suggesting continuing job losses.

by Calculated Risk on 12/10/2009 12:17:00 AM

See update below for an earlier use of "toxic titles".

Just another addition to the crisis lexicon ... "toxic titles" ... from Fed Governor Elizabeth Duke: Keys to Successful Neighborhood Stabilization (ht Brian)

Communities with weak underlying economies are characterized by a long trend of population loss, gradual impoverishment, and strained municipal resources. For cities like Cleveland, Detroit, and Indianapolis the increase in foreclosures over the last few years has exacerbated a pre-existing vacancy problem. The increased rates of foreclosures and the related economic downturn have hastened a cycle of decreasing property values. Declines in state and local property and sales tax revenues result in even more vacant homes and deteriorating neighborhoods.

Many community organizations and homeowners have been frustrated by the difficulties of working with mortgage lenders and servicers, and these problems are even more exaggerated in weaker market cities. In the most devastated neighborhoods, some lenders do not even complete the foreclosure process or record the outcome of foreclosure sales because the cost of foreclosing exceeds the value of the property. Anecdotal evidence suggests that these "toxic titles" have placed significant numbers of properties in a difficult state of legal limbo.

I've seen toxic titles before in downturns with properties listed for $1 and still no takers ...

UPDATE: Here is an earlier use of "toxic titles" from an article by Mary Kane in Jan 2008: ‘Toxic Titles’ Haunt Cities in Mortgage Meltdown

'Walkaways wind up with “toxic titles,’’ [Kermit Lind, a Cleveland law professor who specializes in housing cases] says. The mortgage company retains a lien, or a charge, on the house, but the borrower still is considered the owner. The property sits in limbo, with the mortgage usually exceeding what it would sell for, because of its decline. If the city has to tear it down, it adds its own $8,000 to $10,000 demolition lien. Not surprisingly, potential buyers aren’t exactly lining up. Non-profit neighborhood groups that could fix up the property face long and expensive legal battles to claim it.

by Calculated Risk on 12/09/2009 09:09:00 PM

Mark Whitehouse writes about the advantages of renting in the WSJ: American Dream 2: Default, Then Rent (ht Pat)

Whitehouse describes one former homeowner with a monthly income of $8,300. He was paying $4,800 a month on his home and he was basically working to pay his mortgage. He was really a "debt owner" since the home was worth far less than the amount owed. He now rents a similar home for $2,200 a month and is enjoying life:

[H]e now has the wherewithal to do things he couldn't when he was stretching to pay the mortgage. He recently went to concerts by Rob Thomas and Mat Kearney. He also kept his black BMW 6 Series coupe, which has payments of about $700 a month.

"I don't know if I'll buy another house again, because it's such a huge headache," he says.

This is one of the tragedies of the housing bubble - it encouraged people to become homeowners before they were really ready and also encouraged them to buy too much home (58% DTI for the mortgage is definitely "house poor"). Many of these people will not buy again for years, if ever.

The article also mentions the "stealth stimulus" from all the delinquencies:

For the 4.8 million U.S. households that ... haven't paid their mortgages in at least three months, the added cash flow could amount to about $5 billion a month ... "It's a stealth stimulus," says Christopher Thornberg of Beacon Economics ...

by Calculated Risk on 12/09/2009 07:04:00 PM

From KTLA: Home of Subprime Lender Targeted by Violent Robbers (ht WestSac_grrl)

Three suspects are under arrest after a violent home invasion robbery in a gated Newport Beach community ... The home is owned by Daniel Sadek, a prominent former subprime lender.
...
Police did not immediately know whether the men who invaded Sadek's home were collecting on a debt or were there to rob him. They were taking cash and jewelry ...

Sadek made and lost a fortune in the subprime mortgage business. Quick Loan Funding, which he founded in 2002, wrote about $4 billion in subprime mortgages before it collapsed in 2007

The house was the scene of a fire two weeks ago.

There is no evidence of a connection to the collapse of Quick Loan.

by Calculated Risk on 12/09/2009 03:53:00 PM

From Maria Bartiromo at CNBC: Citi Plans to Repay TARP Via Stock Offering: Sources

Citigroup plans to pay back some of the $45 billion in TARP money it received last year by raising capital through a stock offering, CNBC has learned.

An announcement could come as early as Thursday.

Are the regulators sure they have enough capital?

by Calculated Risk on 12/09/2009 03:02:00 PM

With the Ten Year Treasury yield at 3.42%, I was wondering what that would mean for mortgage rates.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph is from Political Calculations: Predicting Mortgage Rates and Treasury Yields (based on one of my posts).

Using their calculator and a Ten Year Yield of 3.42%, we would expect the 30 year Freddie Mac fixed mortgage rate to be around 5.38%. Of course it is lower than expected - as it has been from most of the year - and some of the difference from the expected rate is probably due to the Fed's MBS purchases (also prepayment speed is a factor - and also just randomness).

The following table shows the difference between the expected and actual rate for the last 6 months. This suggests that mortgage rates will rise about 30 to 50 bps relative to the Ten Year Treasury yield when the Fed stops buying MBS.

	Ten Year Treasury Yield	Expected Mortgage Rate	Freddie Mac Mortgage Rate	Spread
May	3.28%	5.28%	4.86%	0.42%
June	3.71%	5.59%	5.42%	0.17%
July	3.54%	5.46%	5.22%	0.24%
Aug	3.58%	5.49%	5.19%	0.30%
Sep	3.39%	5.36%	5.06%	0.30%
Oct	3.37%	5.34%	4.95%	0.39%
Nov	3.40%	5.36%	4.88%	0.48%
Average				0.33%