by Calculated Risk on 11/09/2025 06:19:00 PM

Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of November 9, 2025

Monday:
• No major economic releases scheduled.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 33 and DOW futures are up 163 (fair value).

Oil prices were down over the last week with WTI futures at $59.75 per barrel and Brent at $63.63 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $71, and Brent was at $74 - so WTI oil prices are down about 15% year-over-year.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $3.05 per gallon. A year ago, prices were at $3.06 per gallon, so gasoline prices are down $0.01 year-over-year.

by Calculated Risk on 11/09/2025 08:21:00 AM

From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) AAR Data Center. Graph and excerpts reprinted with permission.

In October 2025, total U.S. rail carloads were down a fraction (-0.03%) from October 2024, and 11 of the 20 major rail carload categories posted year-over- year declines. ...

U.S. rail intermodal shipments fell 3.0% in October 2025 from October 2024—the third year-over-year decline in the past five months for intermodal and the steepest percentage drop since August 2023. Historically, October is one of the strongest months for intermodal traffic: in the 25 years from 2000 to 2024, it was among the top three months for average weekly intermodal volume in 20 of those years. It won’t be this year: October’s weekly average of 273,747 units has already been surpassed by four other months.
emphasis added

The AAR Freight Rail Index (FRI) measures seasonally adjusted month-to-month rail intermodal shipments plus carloads excluding coal and grain. As such, it is a useful gauge of underlying freight demand tied to industrial production and consumer goods flows. The index fell 1.4% in October 2025 from September 2025, its sixth decline in the past seven months. The index is 1.5% below its level from a year earlier.

by Calculated Risk on 11/08/2025 02:11:00 PM

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:

TClick on graph for larger image.

• Q3 NY Fed Report: Mortgage Originations by Credit Score, Foreclosures Increase Slightly

• 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in October

• Lawler: Single-Family Rent Trends at INVH and AMH

• Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year

• House Prices to Income

This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.

by Calculated Risk on 11/08/2025 08:11:00 AM

The key (missing) reports this week are October CPI and Retail Sales.

Items in Red will not be released due to the government shutdown.

----- Monday, November 10th -----
No major economic releases scheduled.

----- Tuesday, November 11th -----
Veterans Day Holiday: Most banks will be closed in observance of Veterans Day. The stock market will be open.

6:00 AM: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for October.

----- Wednesday, November 12th -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

----- Thursday, November 13th -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.

8:30 AM: The Consumer Price Index for October from the BLS.

----- Friday, November 14th -----
8:30 AM ET: Retail sales for October.

8:30 AM: The Producer Price Index for October from the BLS.

by Calculated Risk on 11/07/2025 02:11:00 PM

What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory, new listings and median prices. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For October, Realtor.com reported active inventory was up 15.3% YoY, but still down 13.2% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. 

Here is their weekly report: Weekly Housing Trends: Latest Data as of Nov. 1

• Active inventory climbed 14.0% year over year

The number of homes active on the market climbed 14.0% year-over-year, marking the two full years (104 weeks) of annual gains in inventory. There were about 1.1 million homes for sale last week, marking the 27th week in a row over the million-listing threshold. Active inventory is growing significantly faster than new listings, an indication that more homes are sitting on the market for longer, and homeowners aren’t eager to sell.

• New listings—a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale—fell 3.2% year over year

New listings were down 3.2% last week compared with the same period a year ago, The decline marks a reversal after three weeks of consecutive growth, suggesting that seller momentum is starting to cool heading into November.

• The median listing price was flat year-over-year

The median list price dipped slightly compared to the same week one year ago. Adjusting for home size, price per square foot fell 0.7% year-over-year, dropping for the ninth consecutive week. Price per square foot grew steadily for almost two years, but the weak sales activity has finally caught up and shaken underlying home values despite stable prices.

by Calculated Risk on 11/07/2025 09:27:00 AM

From Manheim Consulting today: Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices Decline in October

The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) dropped to 202.9, reflecting a 2.0% decline in October’s wholesale used-vehicle prices (adjusted for mix, mileage, and seasonality) compared to September. The index is mostly unchanged compared to October 2024. The long-term average monthly move for October is an increase of 0.3%, as the seasonal adjustment factor is typically the weakest of the year.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This index from Manheim Consulting is based on all completed sales transactions at Manheim’s U.S. auctions.

The Manheim index suggests used car prices were declined in October (seasonally adjusted) and were unchanged YoY.

by Calculated Risk on 11/07/2025 08:11:00 AM

From Revelio Labs: Employment — October 2025

Non-farm employment measures the total employment in the US (public and private) leveraging individual level data collected from online professional profiles. The monthly change in this total employment is a proxy for number of jobs added in the economy during the month. In October, the US economy lost 9 thousand jobs, predominantly driven by employment losses in the government sector.

Click on graph for larger image.

We need the BLS data!

by Calculated Risk on 11/06/2025 07:19:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Friday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Employment Report for October.

• At 10:00 AM, University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Preliminary for November).

by Calculated Risk on 11/06/2025 02:32:00 PM

From Cotality (formerly CoreLogic): US home price insights — November 2025

• Year-over-year price growth continues its downward trend, only rising 1.2% in September 2025.

• Connecticut, New Jersey, Alaska, West Virginia, and Wyoming saw the highest year-over-year price growth this month. Washington D.C. and Florida saw home prices dip the most.
...
The U.S. housing market is continuing to cool off as summer fades into fall. Home prices across the country are starting to sag as inventory reaches its highest level since 2019. While the Northeast is still showing strong market signals, other regional differences are becoming apparent.
...
“Much like the K-shaped trend seen in overall consumer spending—driven largely by higher income groups—lower-income potential homebuyers are facing challenges due to an uncertain job market, sluggish wage growth, and worsening financial conditions. This is leading to weaker demand for homes and downward pressure on prices,” said Cotality’s Chief Economist Dr. Selma Hepp.

Amid falling prices, there has been a rise in serious mortgage delinquencies in some states like Florida, a state where a large proportion of markets are experiencing ebbing prices.
emphasis added

This graph from Cotality shows the Top 10 coolest markets.

The list is dominated by Florida.  According to Cotality, the highest risk markets are all in Florida.

House prices are under pressure with more inventory and sluggish sales.

by Calculated Risk on 11/06/2025 11:45:00 AM

SPECIAL NOTE on Government Shutdown and Air Travel from CoStar:

U.S. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said the government would cut 10% of air traffic at 40 of the country’s busiest airports if the shutdown continues, the New York Times reports. The airports will be named later today.
...
The announcement comes just weeks before Americans will celebrate Thanksgiving. AAA’s latest forecast predicts 2.4 million planned to travel by air for the holiday. Last year, TSA screened more than 3 million passengers, a new record, during last year’s Thanksgiving week.

If the cuts happen, this will likely negatively impact hotel occupancy rates.

Hotel occupancy was weak over the summer months, due to less international tourism.  The fall months are mostly domestic travel and occupancy is still under pressure! 

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 1 November

The U.S. hotel industry reported mixed year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 1 November. ...

26 October through 1 November 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024):

• Occupancy: 59.3% (-2.6%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$156.09 (+0.4%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$92.54 (-2.3%)
emphasis added

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2024.  Dashed black is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. 

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking behind both last year and the median rate for the period 2000 through 2024 (Blue).

Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

The 4-week average will decrease seasonally until early next year.

On a year-to-date basis, the only worse years for occupancy over the last 25 years were pandemic or recession years.