by Calculated Risk on 4/19/2025 02:11:00 PM

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:

Click on graph for larger image.

• Housing and Demographics

• Housing Starts Decreased to 1.324 million Annual Rate in March

• Watch Inventory and Why Measures of Existing Home Inventory appear Different

• 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in March

This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.

Weekly Schedule

by Calculated Risk on 4/19/2025 08:11:00 AM

The key reports scheduled for this week are March New and Existing Home sales.

For manufacturing, the April Richmond and Kansas City manufacturing surveys will be released.

----- Monday, April 21st -----
No major economic releases scheduled.

----- Tuesday, April 22nd -----
10:00 AM: Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for April.

----- Wednesday, April 23rd -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

10:00 AM: New Home Sales for March from the Census Bureau.

This graph shows New Home Sales since 1963. The dashed line is the sales rate for last month.

The consensus is for 680 thousand SAAR, up from 676 thousand in February.

During the day: The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for March (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).

2:00 PM: the Federal Reserve Beige Book, an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts.

----- Thursday, April 24th -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. Initial claims were at 215 thousand last week.

8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for March from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 0.8% increase in durable goods orders.

8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for March. This is a composite index of other data.

10:00 AM: Existing Home Sales for March from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 4.14 million SAAR, down from 4.26 million.

The graph shows existing home sales from 1994 through the report last month.

11:00 AM: the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey for April.

----- Friday, April 25th -----
10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Final for April). The consensus is for a reading of 50.8.

by Calculated Risk on 4/18/2025 06:42:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly.

Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report COVID-19 hospital admissions, hospital capacity, or hospital occupancy data."  So, I'm no longer tracking hospitalizations.

COVID Metrics
	Now	Week Ago	Goal
Deaths per Week	419	474	≤3501
1my goals to stop weekly posts. 🚩 Increasing number weekly for Deaths. ✅ Goal met.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the weekly (columns) number of deaths reported since Jan 2023.

Although weekly deaths met the original goal to stop posting in June 2023 (low of 314 deaths), I've continued to post since deaths are above the goal again - and I'll continue to post until weekly deaths are once again below the goal.

Weekly deaths are now decreasing following the winter pickup and just under double the low of last June.

And here is a graph I'm following concerning COVID in wastewater as of April 17th:

This appears to be a leading indicator for COVID hospitalizations and deaths.  This has been moving down.

Nationally COVID in wastewater is "Low".

by Calculated Risk on 4/18/2025 11:39:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing and Demographics

A brief excerpt:

I’ll return to the above graph and discuss some of the implications for the next decade, but first, here is a similar graph for July 2010.

The arrow points to the large cohort moving into the key renter age group in 2010. It was fifteen years ago that we started discussing the turnaround for apartments. Then, in January 2011, I attended the NMHC Apartment Strategies Conference in Palm Springs, and the atmosphere was very positive. The drivers were 1) very low new supply, and 2) strong demand (favorable demographics, and people moving from owning to renting).

Looking at demographics helped me call the bottom for rents and multi-family construction. And sure, enough multi-family starts bottomed around 2010.
...
What are the implications for the next decade?

by Calculated Risk on 4/18/2025 08:30:00 AM

From BofA:

1Q GDP tracking increased three tenths to 0.7% q/q saar after the upward revisions to Jan and Feb core control retail sales. [Apr 17th estimate]
emphasis added

From Goldman:

We left our Q1 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +0.4% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). [Apr 17th estimate]

And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is -2.2 percent on April 17, unchanged from April 16 after rounding. The alternative model forecast, which adjusts for imports and exports of gold as described here, is -0.1 percent. After this morning’s housing starts report from the US Census Bureau, both the standard model’s and the alternative model’s nowcasts of first-quarter real residential fixed investment growth decreased from 3.7 percent to 2.9 percent. [Apr 17th estimate]

by Calculated Risk on 4/17/2025 08:31:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Friday:
• All US markets will be closed in observance of Good Friday.

• AT 10:00 AM ET, State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for March 2025

by Calculated Risk on 4/17/2025 01:05:00 PM

What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For March, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 28.5% YoY, but still down 20.2% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. 

 Now - on a weekly basis - inventory is up 31.2% YoY.

Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report: Weekly Housing Trends View—Data for Week Ending April 12, 2025

• Active inventory climbed 31.2% from a year ago

The number of homes actively for sale remains significantly higher than last year, continuing a 75-week streak of annual gains.

• ew listings—a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale—increased 12.8%

New listings were up 12.8% compared with this time last year, marking the 14th straight week of annual growth.

• The median list price was flat year over year

The national median list price was flat compared with a year ago, aligning with the recent trend of flat or falling prices after last week’s slight uptick. In particular, recent economic uncertainty and concerns around job security could keep buyers on the sidelines, potentially applying downward pressure on prices.

Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in inventory according to realtor.com. 

Inventory was up year-over-year for the 75th consecutive week.  

New listings have increased but remain below typical pre-pandemic levels.

Median list prices are mostly unchanged year-over-year.

by Calculated Risk on 4/17/2025 09:30:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Starts Decreased to 1.324 million Annual Rate in March

A brief excerpt:

First, from Reuters: D.R. Horton cuts 2025 revenue forecast on weak demand for homes

U.S. homebuilder D.R. Horton lowered its full-year revenue forecast and missed second-quarter profit and revenue estimates on Thursday due to weak demand for homes. … It sees about 85,000 to 87,000 transaction closings from homebuilding operations, down from its earlier forecast of 90,000 to 92,000 homes.

I discussed weaker demand and higher costs last month in Policy and 2025 Housing Outlook

Housing Starts Decreased to 1.324 million Annual Rate in March
...
Total housing starts in March were well below expectations; however, starts in January and February were revised up slightly, combined.

The third graph shows the month-to-month comparison for total starts between 2024 (blue) and 2025 (red).

Total starts were up 1.9% in March compared to March 2024. Year-to-date (YTD) starts are down 1.5% compared to the same period in 2024. Single family starts are down 5.6% YTD and multi-family up 9.0% YTD.

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 4/17/2025 08:40:00 AM

From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions

Housing Starts:
Privately-owned housing starts in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,324,000. This is 11.4 percent below the revised February estimate of 1,494,000, but is 1.9 percent above the March 2024 rate of 1,299,000. Single-family housing starts in March were at a rate of 940,000; this is 14.2 percent below the revised February figure of 1,096,000. The March rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 371,000.

Building Permits:
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,482,000. This is 1.6 percent above the revised February rate of 1,459,000, but is 0.2 percent below the March 2024 rate of 1,485,000. Single-family authorizations in March were at a rate of 978,000; this is 2.0 percent below the revised February figure of 998,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 445,000 in March.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 2000.

Multi-family starts (blue, 2+ units) decreased month-over-month in March.   Multi-family starts were up sharply year-over-year (March 2024 was very weak).

Single-family starts (red) decreased in March and were down 9.7% year-over-year.

The second graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 1968.

This shows the huge collapse following the housing bubble, and then the eventual recovery - and the recent collapse and recovery in single-family starts.

Total housing starts in March were well below expectations; however, starts in January and February were revised up slightly, combined.

I'll have more later …

by Calculated Risk on 4/17/2025 08:31:00 AM

The DOL reported:

In the week ending April 12, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 215,000, a decrease of 9,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 223,000 to 224,000. The 4-week moving average was 220,750, a decrease of 2,500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 223,000 to 223,250.
emphasis added

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 220,750.

The previous week was revised up.

Weekly claims were lower than the consensus forecast.