by Calculated Risk on 6/10/2020 03:10:00 PM

Note: The question on lost income is always since March 13, 2020 - so this percentage will not decline.

From the Census Bureau: Measuring Household Experiences during the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pandemic

The U.S. Census Bureau, in collaboration with five federal agencies, is in a unique position to produce data on the social and economic effects of COVID-19 on American households. The Household Pulse Survey is designed to deploy quickly and efficiently, collecting data to measure household experiences during the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Data will be disseminated in near real-time to inform federal and state response and recovery planning.
…
Data collection for the Household Pulse Survey began on April 23, 2020. The Census Bureau will collect data for 90 days, and release data on a weekly basis.

This will be updated weekly, and the Census Bureau released the fifth week of survey results today. This survey asks about Loss in Employment Income, Expected Loss in Employment Income, Food Scarcity, Delayed Medical Care, Housing Insecurity and K-12 Educational Changes.

Click on graph for larger image.

The data was collected between May 28 and June 2, 2020.

48.3% of households report loss in employment income since March 13th.

The main area of improvement has been in "expected loss" in employment income.

The data will be updated weekly for 90 days.

by Calculated Risk on 6/10/2020 02:43:00 PM

Statement here.

Fed Chair Powell press conference video here starting at 2:30 PM ET.

Here are the projections.

GDP decreased at a 5.0% annual rate in Q1, and most forecasts are for an annual rate decline of 30% to 40% in Q2 - and for GDP to decline in 2020.

The course of the economy will depend on the course of the pandemic, so the FOMC has to factor in their expectations of when the pandemic will subside and end (and no one knows at this time).

GDP projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Change in Real GDP1
Projection Date	2020	2021	2022
June 2020	-7.6 to -5.5	4.5 to 6.0	3.0 to 4.5
Dec 2019	2.0 to 2.2	1.8 to 2.0	1.8 to 2.0

¹ Projections of change in real GDP and inflation are from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated.

The unemployment rate was at 13.3% in May.   The FOMC will revise up their Q4 2020 unemployment forecast significantly.   The FOMC projections for the unemployment rate at the end of 2020, 2021 and 2022 will be interesting.

Note that the unemployment rate doesn't remotely capture the economic damage to the labor market.  Not only were there 15+ million more people unemployed in May than at the end of 2019, but another 6+ million have left the labor force.   And close to 50% of households have seen a decline in income.

Unemployment projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Unemployment Rate2
Projection Date	2020	2021	2022
June 2020	9.0 to 10.0	5.9 to 7.5	4.8 to 6.1
Dec 2019	3.5 to 3.7	3.5 to 3.9	3.5 to 4.0

² Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated.

As of April 2020, PCE inflation was up 0.5% from April 2019.   With the economic stop in March, PCE inflation will be revised down significantly for Q4 2020.

Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, PCE Inflation1
Projection Date	2020	2021	2022
June 2020	0.6 to 1.0	1.4 to 1.7	1.6 to 1.8
Dec 2019	1.8 to 1.9	2.0 to 2.1	2.0 to 2.2

PCE core inflation was up 1.0% in April year-over-year.    Core inflation will also be revised down for Q4 2020.

Core Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Core Inflation1
Projection Date	2020	2021	2022
June 2020	0.9 to 1.1	1.4 to 1.7	1.6 to 1.8
Dec 2019	1.9 to 2.0	2.0 to 2.1	2.0 to 2.2

by Calculated Risk on 6/10/2020 02:01:00 PM

Fed Chair Powell press conference video here starting at 2:30 PM ET.

FOMC Statement:

The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum employment and price stability goals.

The coronavirus outbreak is causing tremendous human and economic hardship across the United States and around the world. The virus and the measures taken to protect public health have induced sharp declines in economic activity and a surge in job losses. Weaker demand and significantly lower oil prices are holding down consumer price inflation. Financial conditions have improved, in part reflecting policy measures to support the economy and the flow of credit to U.S. households and businesses.

The ongoing public health crisis will weigh heavily on economic activity, employment, and inflation in the near term, and poses considerable risks to the economic outlook over the medium term. In light of these developments, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent. The Committee expects to maintain this target range until it is confident that the economy has weathered recent events and is on track to achieve its maximum employment and price stability goals.

The Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook, including information related to public health, as well as global developments and muted inflation pressures, and will use its tools and act as appropriate to support the economy. In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the stance of monetary policy, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its maximum employment objective and its symmetric 2 percent inflation objective. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments.

To support the flow of credit to households and businesses, over coming months the Federal Reserve will increase its holdings of Treasury securities and agency residential and commercial mortgage-backed securities at least at the current pace to sustain smooth market functioning, thereby fostering effective transmission of monetary policy to broader financial conditions. In addition, the Open Market Desk will continue to offer large-scale overnight and term repurchase agreement operations. The Committee will closely monitor developments and is prepared to adjust its plans as appropriate.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; Richard H. Clarida; Patrick Harker; Robert S. Kaplan; Neel Kashkari; Loretta J. Mester; and Randal K. Quarles.
emphasis added

by Calculated Risk on 6/10/2020 11:15:00 AM

The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI this morning:

According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% (3.2% annualized rate) in May. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% (2.5% annualized rate) during the month. The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) monthly CPI report.

Earlier today, the BLS reported that the seasonally adjusted CPI for all urban consumers fell 0.1% (-0.6% annualized rate) in May. The CPI less food and energy fell 0.1% (-0.7% annualized rate) on a seasonally adjusted basis.

Note: The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI details for May here. Motor fuel decreased at a 35% annualized rate in May.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the year-over-year change for these four key measures of inflation. On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 2.8%, the trimmed-mean CPI rose 2.3%, and the CPI less food and energy rose 1.2%. Core PCE is for April and increased 1.0% year-over-year.

Inflation will not be a concern during the crisis.  Interesting, both the median CPI and trimmed-mean CPI actually increased in May.

by Calculated Risk on 6/10/2020 08:33:00 AM

From the BLS:

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) declined 0.1 percent in May on a seasonally adjusted basis after falling 0.8 percent in April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 0.1 percent before seasonal adjustment.

Declines in the indexes for motor vehicle insurance, energy, and apparel more than offset increases in food and shelter indexes to result in the monthly decrease in the seasonally adjusted all items index. The gasoline index declined 3.5 percent in May, leading to a 1.8-percent decline in the energy index. The food index, in contrast, increased 0.7 percent in May as the index for food at home rose 1.0 percent.

The index for all items less food and energy fell 0.1 percent in May, its third consecutive monthly decline. This is the first time this index has ever declined in three consecutive months. Along with motor vehicle insurance and apparel, the indexes for airline fares and used cars and trucks declined in May. The indexes for shelter, recreation, medical care, household furnishings and operations, and new vehicles all increased.

The all items index increased 0.1 percent for the 12 months ending May. The index for all items less food and energy increased 1.2 percent over the last 12 months; this compares to a 2.4-percent increase a few months ago (the period ending February).
emphasis added

Overall inflation was at expectations in May. I'll post a graph later today after the Cleveland Fed releases the median and trimmed-mean CPI.

by Calculated Risk on 6/10/2020 07:00:00 AM

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications increased 9.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending June 5, 2020. The previous week’s results included an adjustment for the Memorial Day holiday.

... The Refinance Index increased 11 percent from the previous week and was 80 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 5 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 15 percent compared with the previous week and was 13 percent higher than the same week one year ago.
...
“Fueled again by low mortgage rates, pent-up demand from earlier this spring, and states reopening across the country, purchase mortgage applications and refinances both increased. The recovery in the purchase market continues to gain steam, with the seasonally adjusted index rising to its highest level since January. Purchase activity increased for the eighth straight week and was a notable 13 percent higher than a year ago,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “Refinances moved higher for the first time in nearly two months, with both conventional and government applications rising and the overall index coming in 80 percent above year-ago levels.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($510,400 or less) increased to 3.38 percent from 3.37 percent, with points remaining unchanged at 0.30 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.


The first graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

The refinance index has been very volatile recently depending on rates and liquidity.

But the index is up signficantly from last year.

The second graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index

According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 13% year-over-year.

Note: Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).

by Calculated Risk on 6/09/2020 08:58:00 PM

Wednesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• At 8:30 AM, The Consumer Price Index for May from the BLS. The consensus is for 0.1% decrease in CPI, and a 0.1% decrease in core CPI.

• At 2:00 PM, FOMC Meeting Announcement. No change to policy is expected at this meeting.

• At 2:00 PM, FOMC Forecasts This will include the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) participants' projections of the appropriate target federal funds rate along with the quarterly economic projections.

• At 2:30 PM, Fed Chair Jerome Powell holds a press briefing following the FOMC announcement.

by Calculated Risk on 6/09/2020 06:56:00 PM

Here is a video of the economic outlook by Professor Schwarz and me.

by Calculated Risk on 6/09/2020 05:31:00 PM

First some local news (Orange County, CA) from CBS: Orange County Health Officer Nichole Quick Resigns After Facing Threats For Issuing Face Mask Order

And here is some local data. New record COVID-19 patients in the ICU (now about 20% of ICU beds are being used for COVID patients. Still needs some beds of other patients) and record number of COVID patients hospitalized in Orange County.

This graph is from OC Health Department.  This shows the number of hospitalizations and COVID-19 patients in the ICU.

The trend is not our friend.

This is very sad news too about Dr. Quick - the modern day anti-mask league is trying to hurt everyone.

Note: I started posting this graph when the US was doing a few thousand tests per day. Clearly the US was way under testing early in the pandemic. I'll continue posting this graph daily at least until the percent positive is continuously under 3% and the daily positive is significantly lower than today.

The US is now usually conducting over 400,000 tests per day, and that might be enough to allow test-and-trace in some areas. Based on the experience of other countries, the percent positive needs to be well under 5% to really push down new infections, so the US still needs to increase the number of tests per day significantly.

According to Dr. Jha of Harvard's Global Health Institute, the US might need more than 900,000 tests per day .

There were 432,880 test results reported over the last 24 hours.

Click on graph for larger image.

This data is from the COVID Tracking Project.

The percent positive over the last 24 hours was 4.2% (red line).

For the status of contact tracing by state, check out testandtrace.com.

by Calculated Risk on 6/09/2020 12:22:00 PM

From the NMHC: NMHC Rent Payment Tracker Finds 80.8 Percent of Apartment Households Paid Rent as of June 6

The National Multifamily Housing Council (NMHC)’s Rent Payment Tracker found 80.8 percent of apartment households made a full or partial rent payment by June 6 in its survey of 11.5 million units of professionally managed apartment units across the country.

This is a 0.7-percentage point decrease in the share who paid rent through June 6, 2019 and compares to 80.2 percent that had paid by May 6, 2020. These data encompass a wide variety of professionally managed market-rate rental properties across the United States, which can vary by size, type and average rental price.

“These are trying times for the country, and we are reminded on a regular basis how crucial safe and secure housing is during a period of uncertainty and upheaval, so we are glad to see that residents who live in professionally managed properties continue to pay their rent,” said Doug Bibby, NMHC President. “While our Rent Payment Tracker metric continues to show the resilience and strength of the professionally managed apartment industry, it does not necessarily tell the whole story, as it doesn’t capture rent payments for smaller landlords or for affordable and subsidized properties, and according to Harvard, more than half of renters with at-risk wages due to the pandemic live in single-family and small multifamily rentals with 2–4 units.”

“At the beginning of the outbreak lawmakers took swift action to extend and enhance unemployment benefits as well as create other programs aimed at keeping individuals employed. Thanks to those forward-looking steps, millions of Americans have been able to continue to be able to afford healthcare, food and shelter,” said David Schwartz, NMHC Chair, and CEO and Chairman of Chicago-based Waterton. “However, those benefits will expire on July 31. Unless policymakers move to extend them, the families and individuals relying on them will find themselves without a safety net, undercutting the initial economic recovery. We urge lawmakers in both parties to continue to sustain and support Americans as our nation and the economy begin to recover.”
emphasis added

CR Note: It appears people are still paying their rent at about the same rate as last year (down just 0.7 percentage points from a year ago).   The disaster relief has been key to helping people pay their bills, especially the extra unemployment benefits and the PPP.