Wednesday, June 10, 2020

Cleveland Fed: Key Measures Show Inflation Soft in May

by Calculated Risk on 6/10/2020 11:15:00 AM

The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI this morning:

According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% (3.2% annualized rate) in May. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% (2.5% annualized rate) during the month. The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) monthly CPI report.

Earlier today, the BLS reported that the seasonally adjusted CPI for all urban consumers fell 0.1% (-0.6% annualized rate) in May. The CPI less food and energy fell 0.1% (-0.7% annualized rate) on a seasonally adjusted basis.
Note: The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI details for May here. Motor fuel decreased at a 35% annualized rate in May.

Inflation Measures Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the year-over-year change for these four key measures of inflation. On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 2.8%, the trimmed-mean CPI rose 2.3%, and the CPI less food and energy rose 1.2%. Core PCE is for April and increased 1.0% year-over-year.

Inflation will not be a concern during the crisis.  Interesting, both the median CPI and trimmed-mean CPI actually increased in May.