by Calculated Risk on 3/24/2020 10:13:00 AM

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 765 thousand.

The previous three months were revised up, combined.

"Sales of new single-family houses in February 2020 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 765,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 4.4 percent below the revised January rate of 800,000, but is 14.3 percent above the February 2019 estimate of 669,000. "
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate.

Even with the increase in sales over the last several years, new home sales are just at a normal level.

The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply.

The months of supply increased in February to 5.0 months from 4.8 months in January.

The all time record was 12.1 months of supply in January 2009.

This is in the normal range (less than 6 months supply is normal).

"The seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of February was 319,000. This represents a supply of 5.0 months at the current sales rate."

On inventory, according to the Census Bureau:

"A house is considered for sale when a permit to build has been issued in permit-issuing places or work has begun on the footings or foundation in nonpermit areas and a sales contract has not been signed nor a deposit accepted."

Starting in 1973 the Census Bureau broke this down into three categories: Not Started, Under Construction, and Completed.

The third graph shows the three categories of inventory starting in 1973.

The inventory of completed homes for sale is still somewhat low, and the combined total of completed and under construction is close to normal.

The last graph shows sales NSA (monthly sales, not seasonally adjusted annual rate).

In February 2020 (red column), 68 thousand new homes were sold (NSA). Last year, 57 thousand homes were sold in February

The all time high for February was 109 thousand in 2005, and the all time low for February was 22 thousand in 2011.

This was above expectations of 750 thousand sales SAAR, and sales in the three previous months were revised up, combined.  This was a strong report with sales up 14.3% year-over-year.  I'll have more later today.

This was prior to COVID-19 crisis.

by Calculated Risk on 3/24/2020 08:39:00 AM

From the Phily Fed: March 2020 Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey

Note: Survey responses were collected from March 5 to March 19.

Nonmanufacturing firms reported a significant weakening in regional nonmanufacturing activity this month, according to results from the Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey’s indexes for general activity at the firm level, sales/revenues, new orders, and full-time employment all fell sharply and into negative territory this month, coinciding with developments related to the coronavirus. …

The diffusion index for current general activity at the firm level fell sharply from 36.1 in February to -12.8 in March, its lowest reading since July 2011 … The full-time employment index fell 23 points to -1.7.
emphasis added

This graph shows the Philly Fed Nonmanufacturing General Activity and Employment indexes.

Click on graph for larger image.

Some of this survey was in early March, but it is clear the COVID-19 is having a significant on nonmanufacturing activity.

by Calculated Risk on 3/23/2020 08:07:00 PM

The new home sales data is for February (pre-crisis), but the Richmond Fed manufacturing survey was taken in March and will likely show a sharp decline.

Note that the Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Survey will be released tomorrow morning. I usually don't cover this, but I'll post on it tomorrow.

Tuesday:
• At 10:00 AM ET, New Home Sales for February from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for 750 thousand SAAR, down from 764 thousand in January.

• Also at 10:00 AM, Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for March.

by Calculated Risk on 3/23/2020 05:24:00 PM

Note: Test-and-trace is one of the keys to getting the economy back on track.

1. First, we need to provide our healthcare workers with whatever they need (masks, gowns, ventilators, beds, etc). This should be a national priority.

2. We need a national shelter-in-place order with a national disaster declaration. The sooner as many people as possible stay home, the less the spread.  For those that work - thank you! - we need social distancing.

3. We need test-and-trace ready to go once we have adequate testing capacity.

4. We need to fund and fast track both vaccines and treatment medications.

5. We need swift action on both monetary and fiscal policy (The Fed has delivered "Whatever it takes", but we are still waiting on fiscal policy).

Tests per day is a key number to track (along with actual cases and, sadly, deaths). But total tests were a key for South Korea slowing the spread of COVID-19. South Korea has been conducting 15,000 tests per day with a 51 million population, so the US needs to test around 100,000 per day.

Note: NYC and LA have stopped testing mild cases due to resource constraints. Hopefully testing will continue to improve, and we can test more people - this is important for test-and-trace.

The US conducted 65,840 tests in the last 24 hours.

Note: About 15% of tests were positive in the most recent report (some are still pending). The high percentage of positives indicates limited testing.

Click on graph for larger image.

This data is from the COVID Tracking Project. Some states could do a better job of reporting the number of tests - so this is probably low.

Testing is improving, but needs to double from here to be sufficient for test-and-trace.

Test. Test. Test. But protect our healthcare workers first!

by Calculated Risk on 3/23/2020 11:05:00 AM

From Black Knight: Black Knight’s First Look: Foreclosure Starts Hit Lowest Level on Record; Mortgage Delinquencies Edge Slightly Upward from January’s Record Low

• Foreclosure starts fell 25% from January 2020, and 20% from the year prior, hitting their lowest level on record since Black Knight began publicly reporting the metric in January 2000

• The national foreclosure rate also ticked lower in February, falling to 0.45%; the lowest it’s been since 2005, and within one basis point of an all-time low

• Delinquencies were up slightly from January, but remain more than 15% below last year’s levels

• Prepayment activity rose by nearly 8% month-over-month as early 2020 rate declines have begun to impact refinance activity

According to Black Knight's First Look report for February, the percent of loans delinquent increased 2.0% in February compared to January, and decreased 15.6% year-over-year.

The percent of loans in the foreclosure process decreased 2.5% in February, and were down 11.2% over the last year.

Black Knight reported the U.S. mortgage delinquency rate (loans 30 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure) was 3.28% in February, up from 3.22% in January.

The percent of loans in the foreclosure process was decreased to 0.456% from 0.46% in January.

Black Knight: Percent Loans Delinquent and in Foreclosure Process
	Feb 2020	Jan 2020	Feb 2019	Feb 2018
Delinquent	3.28%	3.22%	3.89%	4.30%
In Foreclosure	0.45%	0.46%	0.51%	0.65%
Number of properties:
Number of properties that are delinquent, but not in foreclosure:	1,737,000	1,705,000	2,019,000	2,198,000
Number of properties in foreclosure pre-sale inventory:	239,000	246,000	264,000	331,000
Total Properties Delinquent or in foreclosure	1,976,000	1,951,000	2,284,000	2,528,000

by Calculated Risk on 3/23/2020 09:19:00 AM

From the Federal Reserve: Federal Reserve announces extensive new measures to support the economy. There are several actions in the announcement including:

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will purchase Treasury securities and agency mortgage-backed securities in the amounts needed to support smooth market functioning and effective transmission of monetary policy to broader financial conditions and the economy.
emphasis added

This is especially important for the mortgage market. The Fed will buy whatever it takes to stabilize MBS.

There is much more in the announcement (including supporting large and small businesses). This is a "whatever it takes" moment for the Fed.

by Calculated Risk on 3/23/2020 09:04:00 AM

From the Chicago Fed: Chicago Fed National Activity Index Index Suggests Economic Growth Picked Up in February

The data through February were unlikely to have been affected much by the COVID-19 outbreak. Economic data for March will be incorporated in the next CFNAI released on April 20, 2020.

Led by improvements in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to +0.16 in February from –0.33 in January. Two of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index increased from January, and three of the four categories made positive contributions to the index in February. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to –0.21 in February from –0.11 in January.
emphasis added

This graph shows the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (three month moving average) since 1967.

Click on graph for larger image.

This suggests economic activity was below the historical trend in February (using the three-month average).

According to the Chicago Fed:

The index is a weighted average of 85 indicators of growth in national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data: 1) production and income; 2) employment, unemployment, and hours; 3) personal consumption and housing; and 4) sales, orders, and inventories.
...
A zero value for the monthly index has been associated with the national economy expanding at its historical trend (average) rate of growth; negative values with below-average growth (in standard deviation units); and positive values with above-average growth.

by Calculated Risk on 3/22/2020 07:39:00 PM

Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of March 22, 2020

• A few Comments on Weekly and Continued Unemployment Claims

Monday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Chicago Fed National Activity Index for February. This is a composite index of other data.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures are limit down: S&P 500 are down 119 and DOW futures are down 962 (fair value).

Oil prices were down over the last week with WTI futures at $21.31 per barrel and Brent at $25.12 barrel.  A year ago, WTI was at $59, and Brent was at $66 - so oil prices are down more than 60% year-over-year.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $2.08 per gallon. A year ago prices were at $2.60 per gallon, so gasoline prices are down 52 cents per gallon year-over-year.

by Calculated Risk on 3/22/2020 05:16:00 PM

Tests per day is a key number to track (along with actual cases and, sadly, deaths). But total tests were a key for South Korea slowing the spread of COVID-19. South Korea has been conducting 15,000 tests per day with a 51 million population, so the US needs to test around 100,000 per day.

Note: NYC and LA have stopped testing mild cases due to resource constraints. Hopefully testing will continue to improve, and we can test more people - this is important for test-and-trace.

The US conducted 44,668 tests in the last 24 hours.

Note: About 19% of tests were positive in the most recent report (some are still pending). The high percentage of positives indicates limited testing.

Click on graph for larger image.

This data is from the COVID Tracking Project.   Some states could do a better job of reporting the number of tests - so this is probably low.

Testing is improving, but needs to more than double from here (maybe three times this much to be sufficient for test-and-trace).

Test. Test. Test. But protect our healthcare workers first!

by Calculated Risk on 3/22/2020 11:56:00 AM

On Thursday, the Department of Labor will release Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims.   The consensus is initial claims will increase to 750,000, but that is way too low.

Based on early reporting from various states, initial weekly claims will probably be several million this week.

The all time high for initial weekly unemployment claims, Seasonally Adjusted, was 695,000 in Oct 82. The high during the great recession was 665,000 in Mar 09.

The previous record will be obliterated this week due to the sudden economic stop.

The extremely high level of claims will probably continue for several weeks.    But it will be important to track Continued Claims too - since many of these people won't be returning to work for some time.

Click on graph for larger image.

Here is a graph of continued claims since 1967.

If we look at Hurricane Katrina in 2005, weekly claims jumped up immediately, and then declined fairly quickly back to normal levels - but continued claims stayed high for a few months (since it took some time for people in New Orleans and along the Gulf coast to return to work).

This pandemic sudden stop is like Hurricane Katrina for unemployment claims, but all across the country.

This week initial claims will skyrocket, and the following week continued claims will follow.

At the worst of the Great Recession, continued claims peaked at 6.635 million, but then steadily declined.    Over the next few weeks, continued claims will increase rapidly, and then will likely stay at that high level until the crisis abates.