by Calculated Risk on 6/17/2015 09:46:00 AM

Note: This is not Mortgage Equity Withdrawal (MEW) data from the Fed. The last MEW data from Fed economist Dr. Kennedy was for Q4 2008.

The following data is calculated from the Fed's Flow of Funds data (released last week) and the BEA supplement data on single family structure investment. This is an aggregate number, and is a combination of homeowners extracting equity - hence the name "MEW", but there is still little (but increasing) MEW right now - and normal principal payments and debt cancellation (modifications, short sales, and foreclosures).

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by Calculated Risk on 6/17/2015 07:00:00 AM

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 5.5 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending June 12, 2015. ...

The Refinance Index decreased 7 percent from the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 4 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 6 percent compared with the previous week and was 15 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

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by Calculated Risk on 6/16/2015 08:01:00 PM

Earlier FOMC Previews:

FOMC Preview: No Rate Hike

From Tim Duy writing at Bloomberg: Janet Yellen's Prediction Last Month Is Already Being Vindicated.

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by Calculated Risk on 6/16/2015 04:11:00 PM

Earlier FOMC Preview: No Rate Hike

From Tim Duy writing at Bloomberg: Janet Yellen's Prediction Last Month Is Already Being Vindicated. Excerpt:

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by Calculated Risk on 6/16/2015 01:23:00 PM

Total housing starts in May were below expectations, however, overall, including the upward revisions to March and April, starts were solid.

There was also a significant increase for permits in May (mostly for the volatile multi-family sector). However I wouldn't put too much emphasis on permits.   The last time there was a spike in multi-family permits was in June 2008, and that was just before starts collapsed! Usually more is better, but I don't expect a huge surge in multi-family starts in June - I suspect this was just permit timing and starts will be spread out over several months.

Earlier: Housing Starts decreased to 1.036 Million Annual Rate in May

This first graph shows the month to month comparison between 2014 (blue) and 2015 (red).

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by Calculated Risk on 6/16/2015 10:31:00 AM

From CoreLogic: CoreLogic Reports 254,000 US Properties Regained Equity in the First Quarter of 2015

CoreLogic ... today released new analysis showing 254,000 properties regained equity in the first quarter of 2015, bringing the total number of mortgaged residential properties with equity at the end of Q1 2015 to approximately 44.9 million, or 90 percent of all mortgaged properties. Nationwide, borrower equity increased year over year by $694 billion in Q1 2015. The total number of mortgaged residential properties with negative equity is now at 5.1 million, or 10.2 percent of all mortgaged properties. This compares to 5.4 million homes, or 10.8 percent, that had negative equity in Q4 2014, a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 4.7 percent. Compared with 6.3 million homes, or 12.9 percent, reported for Q1 2014, the number of underwater homes has decreased year over year by 1.2 million, or 19.4 percent.

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by Calculated Risk on 6/16/2015 08:37:00 AM

From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions

Housing Starts:
Privately-owned housing starts in May were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,036,000. This is 11.1 percent below the revised April estimate of 1,165,000, but is 5.1 percent above the May 2014 rate of 986,000.

Single-family housing starts in May were at a rate of 680,000; this is 5.4 percent below the revised April figure of 719,000. The May rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 349,000.
emphasis added

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by Calculated Risk on 6/15/2015 08:50:00 PM

Tuesday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Housing Starts for May. Total housing starts increased to 1.135 million (SAAR) in April. Single family starts increased to 733 thousand SAAR in April. The consensus is for total housing starts to decrease to 1.090 million (SAAR) in May.

There has been some discussion if sustained 4% growth in the U.S. can be achieved. Here are two articles:

From Neil Irwin at the NY Times The Upshot: Jeb Bush Wants 4 Percent Growth. That Will Be Hard to Reach.

[F]or 4 percent growth to be realistic in the next presidential term — not just for a one-quarter spurt but on a sustained basis — one of two things must apply. Either the technocrats at places like the C.B.O. and the Fed must be wildly underestimating the nation’s growth potential today. Or a revolution in American productivity must be on the way. Neither of those are things that a president has much control over.

And from Matthew Klein at the Financial Times Alphaville: Jeb Bush’s growth goal isn’t outlandish

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by Calculated Risk on 6/15/2015 05:10:00 PM

This weekend I updated: Predicting the Next Recession.

In that post, I noted that I hadn't seen ECRI admit their recent series of recession calls were incorrect. Actually they have admitted an incorrect call, and here is their recent admission (ht M): The Greater Moderation

In line with the old adage, “never say never,” [ECRI's] September 2011 U.S. recession forecast did turn out to be a false alarm.

I disagreed with that call in 2011; I wasn't even on recession watch!

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by Calculated Risk on 6/15/2015 01:30:00 PM

Way back in 2005, I posted a graph of the Real Estate Agent Boom. Here is another update to the graph.

The graph shows the number of real estate licensees in California.

The number of agents peaked at the end of 2007 (housing activity peaked in 2005, and prices in 2006).

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