Tuesday, June 16, 2015

Housing Starts decreased to 1.036 Million Annual Rate in May

by Bill McBride on 6/16/2015 08:37:00 AM

From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions

Housing Starts:
Privately-owned housing starts in May were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,036,000. This is 11.1 percent below the revised April estimate of 1,165,000, but is 5.1 percent above the May 2014 rate of 986,000.

Single-family housing starts in May were at a rate of 680,000; this is 5.4 percent below the revised April figure of 719,000. The May rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 349,000.
emphasis added

Building Permits:
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in May were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,275,000. This is 11.8 percent above the revised April rate of 1,140,000 and is 25.4 percent above the May 2014 estimate of 1,017,000.

Single-family authorizations in May were at a rate of 683,000; this is 2.6 percent above the revised April figure of 666,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 557,000 in May.
Total Housing Starts and Single Family Housing Starts Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows single and multi-family housing starts for the last several years.

Multi-family starts (red, 2+ units) decreased in May.  Multi-family starts are up 2% year-over-year.

Single-family starts (blue) also decreased in May and are up about 6.7% year-over-year.

The second graph shows total and single unit starts since 1968.

Total Housing Starts and Single Family Housing Starts The second graph shows the huge collapse following the housing bubble, and then - after moving sideways for a couple of years - housing is now recovering (but still historically low),

This was below expectations of 1.090 million starts in May.  However, with the upward revisions to prior months, and the surge in permits, this was another solid report. I'll have more later ...