RSS Feed by Calculated Risk on 6/16/2015 08:01:00 PM
Tuesday, June 16, 2015
Wednesday: FOMC Day
Earlier FOMC Previews:
FOMC Preview: No Rate Hike
From Tim Duy writing at Bloomberg: Janet Yellen's Prediction Last Month Is Already Being Vindicated.
Duy: FOMC Preview
by Calculated Risk on 6/16/2015 04:11:00 PM
Earlier FOMC Preview: No Rate Hike
From Tim Duy writing at Bloomberg: Janet Yellen's Prediction Last Month Is Already Being Vindicated. Excerpt:
Comments on May Housing Starts
by Calculated Risk on 6/16/2015 01:23:00 PM
Total housing starts in May were below expectations, however, overall, including the upward revisions to March and April, starts were solid.
There was also a significant increase for permits in May (mostly for the volatile multi-family sector). However I wouldn't put too much emphasis on permits. The last time there was a spike in multi-family permits was in June 2008, and that was just before starts collapsed! Usually more is better, but I don't expect a huge surge in multi-family starts in June - I suspect this was just permit timing and starts will be spread out over several months.
Earlier: Housing Starts decreased to 1.036 Million Annual Rate in May
This first graph shows the month to month comparison between 2014 (blue) and 2015 (red).
CoreLogic: "CoreLogic Reports 254,000 US Properties Regained Equity in the First Quarter of 2015"
by Calculated Risk on 6/16/2015 10:31:00 AM
From CoreLogic: CoreLogic Reports 254,000 US Properties Regained Equity in the First Quarter of 2015
CoreLogic ... today released new analysis showing 254,000 properties regained equity in the first quarter of 2015, bringing the total number of mortgaged residential properties with equity at the end of Q1 2015 to approximately 44.9 million, or 90 percent of all mortgaged properties. Nationwide, borrower equity increased year over year by $694 billion in Q1 2015. The total number of mortgaged residential properties with negative equity is now at 5.1 million, or 10.2 percent of all mortgaged properties. This compares to 5.4 million homes, or 10.8 percent, that had negative equity in Q4 2014, a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 4.7 percent. Compared with 6.3 million homes, or 12.9 percent, reported for Q1 2014, the number of underwater homes has decreased year over year by 1.2 million, or 19.4 percent.
Housing Starts decreased to 1.036 Million Annual Rate in May
by Calculated Risk on 6/16/2015 08:37:00 AM
From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions
Housing Starts:
Privately-owned housing starts in May were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,036,000. This is 11.1 percent below the revised April estimate of 1,165,000, but is 5.1 percent above the May 2014 rate of 986,000.
Single-family housing starts in May were at a rate of 680,000; this is 5.4 percent below the revised April figure of 719,000. The May rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 349,000.
emphasis added
Monday, June 15, 2015
4% Sustained GDP Growth?
by Calculated Risk on 6/15/2015 08:50:00 PM
Tuesday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Housing Starts for May. Total housing starts increased to 1.135 million (SAAR) in April. Single family starts increased to 733 thousand SAAR in April. The consensus is for total housing starts to decrease to 1.090 million (SAAR) in May.
There has been some discussion if sustained 4% growth in the U.S. can be achieved. Here are two articles:
From Neil Irwin at the NY Times The Upshot: Jeb Bush Wants 4 Percent Growth. That Will Be Hard to Reach.
[F]or 4 percent growth to be realistic in the next presidential term — not just for a one-quarter spurt but on a sustained basis — one of two things must apply. Either the technocrats at places like the C.B.O. and the Fed must be wildly underestimating the nation’s growth potential today. Or a revolution in American productivity must be on the way. Neither of those are things that a president has much control over.And from Matthew Klein at the Financial Times Alphaville: Jeb Bush’s growth goal isn’t outlandish
ECRI Admits Incorrect Recession Call
by Calculated Risk on 6/15/2015 05:10:00 PM
This weekend I updated: Predicting the Next Recession.
In that post, I noted that I hadn't seen ECRI admit their recent series of recession calls were incorrect. Actually they have admitted an incorrect call, and here is their recent admission (ht M): The Greater Moderation
In line with the old adage, “never say never,” [ECRI's] September 2011 U.S. recession forecast did turn out to be a false alarm.I disagreed with that call in 2011; I wasn't even on recession watch!
Update: Real Estate Agent Boom and Bust
by Calculated Risk on 6/15/2015 01:30:00 PM
Way back in 2005, I posted a graph of the Real Estate Agent Boom. Here is another update to the graph.
The graph shows the number of real estate licensees in California.
The number of agents peaked at the end of 2007 (housing activity peaked in 2005, and prices in 2006).
NAHB: Builder Confidence increased to 59 in June
by Calculated Risk on 6/15/2015 10:06:00 AM
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 59 in June, up from 54 in May. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.
From the NAHB: Builder Confidence Hits Yearly High in June
Fed: Industrial Production decreased 0.2% in May
by Calculated Risk on 6/15/2015 09:29:00 AM
From the Fed: Industrial production and Capacity Utilization
Industrial production decreased 0.2 percent in May after falling 0.5 percent in April. The decline in April was larger than previously reported, but the rates of change for previous months were generally revised higher, leaving the level of the index in April slightly above its initial estimate. Manufacturing output decreased 0.2 percent in May and was little changed, on net, from its level in January. In May, the index for mining moved down 0.3 percent after declining more than 1 percent per month, on average, in the previous four months. The slower rate of decrease for mining output last month was due in part to a reduced pace of decline in the index for oil and gas well drilling and servicing. The output of utilities increased 0.2 percent in May. At 105.1 percent of its 2007 average, total industrial production in May was 1.4 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector decreased 0.2 percentage point in May to 78.1 percent, a rate that is 2.0 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2014) average.
emphasis added
