by Calculated Risk on 11/26/2013 08:30:00 AM

Note: The Census Bureau has announced that the housing starts releases for September and October will be delayed until December 18th.

From the Census Bureau: New Residential Construction in October 2013

Building Permits:
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,034,000. This is 6.2 percent above the September rate of 974,000 and is 13.9 percent above the October 2012 estimate of 908,000.

Single-family authorizations in October were at a rate of 620,000; this is 0.8 percent above the September figure of 615,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 387,000 in October.

The graph shows total and single unit permits since 1960.

Click on graph for larger image.

This shows the huge collapse following the housing bubble, and that housing starts have been generally increasing after moving sideways for about two years and a half years.

The increase in permits was mostly due to the volatile multi-family sector.  This is the highest level for permits since 2008.

by Calculated Risk on 11/25/2013 10:47:00 PM

Just a reminder ... housing starts have been delayed again ... but permits will be released on Tuesday. This will apparent surprise some people, from CNBC: Tuesday look-ahead: Markets watching housing starts

"The most telling news is tomorrow with housing starts," said Terry Sandven, chief equity strategist for U.S. Bank Wealth Management. ... The report will offer "one more nice data point as to how healthy the economy really is and where it might be going," said JJ Kinahan, chief strategist at TD Ameritrade

Tuesday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, the Housing Permits for September and October. Housing starts have been delayed until December 18th.

• At 9:00 AM, the FHFA House Price Index for September 2013. This was original a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase.

• Also at 9:00 AM, the S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for September. Although this is the September report, it is really a 3 month average of July, August and September. The consensus is for a 13.1% year-over-year increase in the Composite 20 index (NSA) for August.

• At 10:00 AM, the Conference Board's consumer confidence index for November. The consensus is for the index to increase to 72.9 from 71.2.

• Also at 10:00 AM, the Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for November. The consensus is a reading of 4, up from 1 in October (above zero is expansion).

by Calculated Risk on 11/25/2013 05:40:00 PM

Here is another weekly update on housing inventory ... for the sixth consecutive week, housing inventory is up year-over-year.  This suggests inventory bottomed early this year.

There is a clear seasonal pattern for inventory, with the low point for inventory in late December or early January, and then peaking in mid-to-late summer.

The Realtor (NAR) data is monthly and released with a lag (the most recent data was for October).  However Ben at Housing Tracker (Department of Numbers) has provided me some weekly inventory data for the last several years.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the Housing Tracker reported weekly inventory for the 54 metro areas for 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013.

In 2011 and 2012, inventory only increased slightly early in the year and then declined significantly through the end of each year.

Inventory in 2013 is now 3.2% above the same week in 2012 (red is 2013, blue is 2012).

We can be pretty confident that inventory bottomed early this year, and I expect the seasonal decline to be less than usual at the end of the year - so the year-over-year change will continue to increase.

Inventory is still very low, but this increase in inventory should slow house price increases.  One of the key questions for 2014 will be: How much will inventory increase?  I'll post some thoughts on inventory at the end of the year.

by Calculated Risk on 11/25/2013 01:01:00 PM

Note: The automakers will report November vehicle sales on December 3rd.

Here are a few forecasts:

From WardsAuto: Forecast Calls for Post-Shutdown Bounce

U.S. automakers should sell 1.21 million light vehicles in November, according to a new WardsAuto forecast.
...
The forecast sales volume (over 26 days) would represent ... equate to a 15.9 million-unit SAAR.

From JD Power: Consumer Demand for New Vehicles Picks Up in November

In November, U.S. new-vehicle sales are likely to reach 1.2 million units ... based on an auto sales forecast update from J.D. Power and strategic partner LMC Automotive.

The average sales pace in November is expected to translate to a 16.1 million-unit seasonally adjusted annual rate, or SAAR, which would ... outpace the 15.2 million-unit SAAR in October, 2013.

From Edmunds.com: November Auto Sales Set the Tone for Final Stretch of 2013, Forecasts Edmunds.com

Edmunds.com ... forecasts that 1,196,663 new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. in November for an estimated Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) of 15.7 million.

"Any economic uncertainty that car shoppers might have felt in October seems to be a distant memory by now," says Edmunds.com Senior Analyst Jessica Caldwell. "Car buyers are already taking advantage of advertised holiday deals, and as we plow deeper into the holiday season, the table is set for 2013 to finish on a very strong note."

It appears sales in November will be significantly above the government slowdown pace of 15.154 million in October 2013.

by Calculated Risk on 11/25/2013 11:08:00 AM

Notes: I follow several house price indexes (Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, LPS, Zillow, FHFA, FNC and more). The timing of different house prices indexes can be a little confusing. LPS uses the current month closings only (not a three month average like Case-Shiller or a weighted average like CoreLogic), excludes short sales and REOs, and is not seasonally adjusted.

From LPS: LPS Home Price Index Report: September Transactions, U.S. Home Prices Up 0.2 Percent for the Month; Up 9.0 Percent Year-Over-Year

Lender Processing Services ... today released its latest LPS Home Price Index (HPI) report, based on September 2013 residential real estate transactions. The LPS HPI combines the company’s extensive property and loan-level databases to produce a repeat sales analysis of home prices as of their transaction dates every month for each of more than 18,500 U.S. ZIP codes. The LPS HPI represents the price of non-distressed sales by taking into account price discounts for REO and short sales.

The LPS HPI is off 14.1% from the peak in June 2006. Note: The press release has data for the 20 largest states, and 40 MSAs. Prices declined slightly in seven of the 20 largest states in September. LPS shows prices off 44.5% from the peak in Las Vegas, off 37.8% in Orlando, and 35.7% off from the peak in Riverside-San Bernardino, CA (Inland Empire). Prices were at new peaks in Austin, Dallas, Houston and San Antonio.

Note: Case-Shiller for September will be released tomorrow.

by Calculated Risk on 11/25/2013 10:00:00 AM

From the NAR: October Pending Home Sales Down Again, but Expected to Level Out

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, slipped 0.6 percent to 102.1 in October from an upwardly revised 102.7 in September, and is 1.6 percent below October 2012 when it was 103.8. The index is at the lowest level since December 2012 when it was 101.3; the data reflect contracts but not closings.
...
[Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist said:]“The government shutdown in the first half of last month sidelined some potential buyers. In a survey, 17 percent of Realtors® reported delays in October, mostly from waiting for IRS income verification for mortgage approval,” he said.

The PHSI in the Northeast rose 2.8 percent to 85.8 in October, and is 8.1 percent above a year ago. In the Midwest the index increased 1.2 percent to 104.1 in October, and is 3.2 percent higher than October 2012. Pending home sales in the South slipped 0.8 percent to an index of 114.5 in October, and are 1.5 percent below a year ago. The index in the West fell 4.1 percent in October to 93.3, and is 12.1 percent lower than October 2012.
emphasis added

Contract signings usually lead sales by about 45 to 60 days, so this would usually be for closed sales in November and December.

by Calculated Risk on 11/24/2013 07:49:00 PM

On oil from the WSJ: Iran Accord Likely to Push Oil Prices Down

Oil prices are likely to drop, analysts said, as the nuclear accord between Iran and six world powers potentially paves the way for more crude oil to reach the global market.
...
Brent crude futures ended Friday at $111.05 a barrel, the highest since Oct. 11, in part because a deal with Iran looked remote at the time the market closed.
...
"There's about a million barrels of oil a day that could be very quickly returned to the global market," said Jason Schenker, economist and president at Prestige Economics, LLC.

Iran exported 1.5 million barrels a day in 2012, down from 2.5 million barrels a day in 2011, according to the Energy Information Administration.

Monday:
• At 10:00 AM ET, the Pending Home Sales Index for October. The consensus is for a 1.1% increase in the index.

• At 10:30 AM ET, the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey for November. The consensus is a reading of 5.0, up from 3.6 in October (above zero is expansion).

Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of November 24th

• Housing Starts and Permits

The Nikkei is up about 0.8%.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: the S&P futures are 5 and DOW futures are up 50 (fair value).

Oil prices are down with WTI futures at $94.01 per barrel and Brent at $108.65 per barrel.

Below is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices have increased recently to $3.26 per gallon.  If you click on "show crude oil prices", the graph displays oil prices for WTI, not Brent; gasoline prices in most of the U.S. are impacted more by Brent prices.

Orange County Historical Gas Price Charts Provided by GasBuddy.com

by Calculated Risk on 11/24/2013 01:29:00 PM

The Census Bureau has announced that the housing starts releases for September and October will be delayed until December 18th, but that housing permits for September and October will be released this coming Tuesday.

The good news is housing starts and permits mostly move together. "Housing starts" are an estimate for the entire country, and "permits" are only for areas requiring building permits.  From the Census Bureau:

Housing starts and completions estimates cover the entire United States, not just areas requiring building permits. The number of housing units built in non-permit areas is about 2.5 percent of the total. Nearly all are single-family houses. (Note that the number of jurisdictions (or "places") requiring building permits increases over time as non-permit places become permit-issuing. The Census Bureau's universe of permit offices was increased in 2005 from 19,000 to 20,000 places.)

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows total housing starts and permits since January 2008.

Over time, more areas have required permits, and now permits and starts mostly move together.

The second graph shows total and single unit permits since 1960.  This is the graph I'll post on Tuesday when permits are released.

This shows the huge collapse following the housing bubble, and that housing permits have been generally increasing after moving sideways for about two years and a half years.

Since housing starts will be delayed, there will be an extra focus on permits on Tuesday - especially since some of the homebuilders have posted weak results recently.

by Calculated Risk on 11/24/2013 10:06:00 AM

The Census Bureau has delayed the release of housing starts again. They will release permit data for September and October this week (on Tuesday), but housing start data for September and October will be released on December 18th.

From the Census Bureau: Census Bureau to Postpone Release of Some New Residential Construction Information

Due to the recent lapse in federal funding, the U.S. Census Bureau today announced revisions to the release date for the September and October New Residential Construction indicator's housing starts and housing completions statistics. Originally scheduled for release on October 17 and November 19 respectively, these dates had been previously revised to November 26, 2013.

The Census Bureau's monthly New Residential Construction indicator includes statistics on building permits, housing starts and housing completions. On November 26 at 8:30 a.m., the Census Bureau will release estimates of housing units authorized by building permits in September and October. However, the release of new housing unit starts and housing unit completions will now be released on December 18, 2013.

The lapse in federal funding affected the data collection schedule for the Survey of Construction, which is the source of data on new housing unit starts and housing unit completions. Accurate data collection for September and October could not be completed in time for the November 26 release. As a result, the December 18 release will include data on housing units started and completed in September, October and November 2013.

by Calculated Risk on 11/23/2013 01:03:00 PM

This will be a short, but busy week. The key reports this week are housing permits for both September and October, and Case-Shiller house prices.

For manufacturing, the Dallas and Richmond Fed November surveys will be released this week.

----- Monday, November 25th -----
10:00 AM ET: Pending Home Sales Index for October. The consensus is for a 1.1% increase in the index.

10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey for November.  The consensus is a reading of 5.0, up from 3.6 in October (above zero is expansion).

----- Tuesday, November 26th-----
8:30 AM: Housing Permits for September and October. Housing starts have been delayed until December 18th.

9:00 AM: FHFA House Price Index for September 2013. This was original a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase.

9:00 AM: S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for September. Although this is the September report, it is really a 3 month average of July, August and September.

This graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10 and Composite 20 indexes through July 2012 (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The consensus is for a 13.1% year-over-year increase in the Composite 20 index (NSA) for August. The Zillow forecast is for the Composite 20 to increase 13.2% year-over-year, and for prices to increase 0.8% month-to-month seasonally adjusted.

10:00 AM: Conference Board's consumer confidence index for November. The consensus is for the index to increase to 72.9 from 71.2.

10:00 AM: Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for November.  The consensus is a reading of 4, up from 1 in October (above zero is expansion).

----- Wednesday, November 27th -----
7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to increase to 330 thousand from 323 thousand last week.

8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for October from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 2.0% decrease in durable goods orders.

8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for October.

9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for November. The consensus is for a decrease to 60.5, down from 65.9 in October.

9:55 AM: Reuter's/University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (final for November). The consensus is for a reading of 73.3, up from the preliminary reading of 72.0, and up from the October reading of 73.2.

10:00 AM: Conference Board Leading Indicators for October. The consensus is for a 0.1% increase in this index.

----- Thursday, November 28th -----
All US markets will be closed in observance of the Thanksgiving Day Holiday.

----- Friday, November 29th -----
US markets will close at 2:00 PM ET following the Thanksgiving Day Holiday. The NYSE will close at 1:00 PM ET.