by Calculated Risk on 11/25/2013 05:40:00 PM
Monday, November 25, 2013
Here is another weekly update on housing inventory ... for the sixth consecutive week, housing inventory is up year-over-year. This suggests inventory bottomed early this year.
There is a clear seasonal pattern for inventory, with the low point for inventory in late December or early January, and then peaking in mid-to-late summer.
The Realtor (NAR) data is monthly and released with a lag (the most recent data was for October). However Ben at Housing Tracker (Department of Numbers) has provided me some weekly inventory data for the last several years.
Click on graph for larger image.
This graph shows the Housing Tracker reported weekly inventory for the 54 metro areas for 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013.
In 2011 and 2012, inventory only increased slightly early in the year and then declined significantly through the end of each year.
Inventory in 2013 is now 3.2% above the same week in 2012 (red is 2013, blue is 2012).
We can be pretty confident that inventory bottomed early this year, and I expect the seasonal decline to be less than usual at the end of the year - so the year-over-year change will continue to increase.
Inventory is still very low, but this increase in inventory should slow house price increases. One of the key questions for 2014 will be: How much will inventory increase? I'll post some thoughts on inventory at the end of the year.