Thursday, October 31, 2013

Zillow: Case-Shiller House Price Index expected to show 13.2% year-over-year increase in September

by Bill McBride on 10/31/2013 04:09:00 PM

The Case-Shiller house price indexes for August were released Tuesday. Zillow has started forecasting Case-Shiller a month early - and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close.   It looks like another very strong month ...

From Zillow: Sept. Case-Shiller Expected to Continue Showing Eye-Popping Annual Appreciation

The Case-Shiller data for August came out this morning, and based on this information and the September 2013 Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI, released Oct. 17), we predict that next month’s Case-Shiller data (September 2013) will show that both the non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) 20-City Composite Home Price Index and the NSA 10-City Composite Home Price Index increased 13.2 percent on a year-over-year basis. The seasonally adjusted (SA) month-over-month change from August to September will be 0.8 percent for both the 20-City Composite and the 10-City Composite Home Price Indices (SA). All forecasts are shown in the table below. Officially, the Case-Shiller Composite Home Price Indices for September will not be released until Tuesday, Nov. 26.
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The Zillow Home Value index showed the first signs of moderation in home value appreciation, with several of the largest metros showing month-over-month declines in September. Case-Shiller indices have also shown slowdowns in monthly appreciation but have not yet recorded monthly declines.
The following table shows the Zillow forecast for the September Case-Shiller index.

Zillow September Forecast for Case-Shiller Index
 Case Shiller Composite 10Case Shiller Composite 20
NSASANSASA
Case Shiller
(year ago)
Sept 2012158.94155.66146.23143.20
Case-Shiller
(last month)
Aug 2013178.75174.59164.53160.55
Zillow ForecastYoY13.2%13.2%13.2%13.2%
MoM0.6%0.8%0.6%0.8%
Zillow Forecasts1 179.9176.1165.5162.0
Current Post Bubble Low 146.45149.63134.07136.87
Date of Post Bubble Low Mar-12Jan-12Mar-12Jan-12
Above Post Bubble Low 22.8%17.7%23.5%18.3%
1Estimate based on Year-over-year and Month-over-month Zillow forecasts