by Calculated Risk on 7/22/2013 11:49:00 AM

First, the headline sales number was no surprise and not bad news (see Existing Home Sales: Expect Below Consensus Sales).

Second, I usually ignore the median price. The median price is distorted by the mix, and with more conventional sales - and more mid-to-high end sales - the median is increasing faster than actual prices (as reported by the repeat sales indexes).

The key number in the existing home sales report is inventory (not sales), and the NAR reported that inventory increased 1.9% in June from May, and is only down 7.6% from June 2012.  This fits with the weekly data I've been posting.

This is the lowest level of inventory for the month of June since 2001, but this is also the smallest year-over-year decline since June 2011. The key points are: 1) inventory is very low, but 2) the year-over-year inventory decline will probably end soon. With the low level of inventory, there is still upward pressure on prices - but as inventory starts to increase, buyer urgency will wane, and price increases will slow.

When will the NAR report a year-over-year increase in inventory?   Soon.  Right now I'm guessing inventory will be up year-over-year in September or October. 

Important: The NAR reports active listings, and although there is some variability across the country in what is considered active, most "contingent short sales" are not included. "Contingent short sales" are strange listings since the listings were frequently NEVER on the market (they were listed as contingent), and they hang around for a long time - they are probably more closely related to shadow inventory than active inventory. However when we compare inventory to 2005, we need to remember there were no "short sale contingent" listings in 2005. In the areas I track, the number of "short sale contingent" listings is also down sharply year-over-year.

Another key point: The NAR reported total sales were up 15.2% from June 2012, but conventional sales are probably up close to 30% from June 2012, and distressed sales down.  The NAR reported (from a survey):

Distressed homes – foreclosures and short sales – were 15 percent of June sales, down from 18 percent in May, and are the lowest share since monthly tracking began in October 2008; they were 26 percent in June 2012.

Although this survey isn't perfect, if total sales were up 15.2% from June 2012, and distressed sales declined to 15% of total sales (15% of 5.08 million) from 26% (26% of 4.41 million in June 2012), this suggests conventional sales were up sharply year-over-year - a good sign. However some of this increase is investor buying; the NAR is reporting:

All-cash sales made up 31 percent of transactions in June, down from 33 percent in May; they were 29 percent in June 2012. Individual investors, who account for many cash sales, purchased 17 percent of homes in June, down from 18 percent in May and 19 percent in June 2012.

The following graph shows existing home sales Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

Click on graph for larger image.

Sales NSA in June (red column) are above the sales for 2008 through 2012, however sales are well below the bubble years of 2005 and 2006.

The bottom line is this was a solid report. Conventional sales have increased sharply, although some of this is investor buying. And inventory is low, but the year-over-year decline in inventory is decreasing.

Earlier:
• Existing Home Sales in June: 5.08 million SAAR, 5.2 months of supply

by Calculated Risk on 7/22/2013 10:00:00 AM

The NAR reports: June Existing-Home Sales Slip but Prices Continue to Roll at Double-Digit Rates

Total existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, dipped 1.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.08 million in June from a downwardly revised 5.14 million in May, but are 15.2 percent higher than the 4.41 million-unit level in June 2012.

Total housing inventory at the end of June rose 1.9 percent to 2.19 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 5.2-month supply at the current sales pace, up from 5.0 months in May. Listed inventory remains 7.6 percent below a year ago, when there was a 6.4-month supply.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1993.

Sales in June 2013 (5.08 million SAAR) were 1.2% lower than last month, and were 15.2% above the June 2012 rate.

The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes.

According to the NAR, inventory increased to 2.19 million in June up from 2.15 million in May.   Inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually increases from the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer.

The last graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory.

Inventory decreased 7.6% year-over-year in June compared to June 2012. This is the 28th consecutive month with a YoY decrease in inventory, and the smallest YoY decrease since 2011 (I expect the YoY to turn positive soon).

Months of supply increased to 5.2 months in June.

This was below expectations of sales of 5.27 million (just above economist Tom Lawler's forecast).  For existing home sales, the key number is inventory - and inventory is still down year-over-year, although the declines are slowing.   This was another solid report.  I'll have more later ...

by Calculated Risk on 7/22/2013 08:37:00 AM

The Chicago Fed released the national activity index (a composite index of other indicators): Economic Activity Slightly Improved in June

Led by improvements in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) increased to –0.13 in June from –0.29 in May.

The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, increased to –0.26 in June from –0.37 in May, marking its fourth consecutive reading below zero. June’s CFNAI-MA3 suggests that growth in national economic activity was below its historical trend. The economic growth reflected in this level of the CFNAI-MA3 suggests subdued inflationary pressure from economic activity over the coming year.
emphasis added

This graph shows the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (three month moving average) since 1967.

Click on graph for larger image.

This suggests economic activity was below the historical trend in June (using the three-month average).

According to the Chicago Fed:

What is the National Activity Index? The index is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data: 1) production and income; 2) employment, unemployment, and hours; 3) personal consumption and housing; and 4) sales, orders, and inventories.

A zero value for the index indicates that the national economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth; negative values indicate below-average growth; and positive values indicate above-average growth.

by Calculated Risk on 7/21/2013 09:19:00 PM

From Nick Timiraos at the WSJ on housing: Price Gains May Moderate, but It Remains a Seller's Market for Now

The surge in rates could test buyers' appetites to pay above asking prices, potentially slowing the run-up in home prices witnessed in the first half of the year. The biggest pinch will be felt by potential homeowners in high-cost housing markets that had been stretching to qualify for the largest loan possible.

"The frenzy has concluded," said Jim Klinge, a real-estate agent in Carlsbad, Calif. "The pool of crazy buyers—those willing to pay higher prices because they're tired of losing bidding wars—has diminished considerably."

Monday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Chicago Fed National Activity Index for June. This is a composite index of other data.

• At 10:00 AM, Existing Home Sales for June from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for sales of 5.27 million on seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) basis. Sales in May were at a 5.18 million SAAR. Economist Tom Lawler is estimating the NAR will report a June sales rate of 4.99 million.

Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of July 21st

• Existing Home Sales: Expect Below Consensus Sales

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: the S&P futures are up 7 and DOW futures are up 57 (fair value).

Oil prices have increased recently with WTI futures at $108.40 per barrel and Brent at $108.42 per barrel.

by Calculated Risk on 7/21/2013 01:16:00 PM

From DataQuick: California June Home Sales

An estimated 41,027 new and resale houses and condos sold statewide last month. That was down 6.9 percent from a revised 44,087 in May, and down 3.5 percent from 42,513 sales in June 2012, according to San Diego-based DataQuick.

California June sales have varied from a low of 35,202 in 2008 to a high of 76,669 in 2004. Last month's sales were 16.8 percent below the average of 49,301 sales for all the months of June since 1988, when DataQuick's statistics begin.
...
Of the existing homes sold last month, 10.0 percent were properties that had been foreclosed on during the past year – the lowest level since foreclosure resales were 9.4 percent of the resale market in August 2007. Last month’s figure was down from a revised 11.3 percent in May and 24.9 percent a year earlier. Foreclosure resales peaked at 58.8 percent in February 2009.

Short sales - transactions where the sale price fell short of what was owed on the property - made up an estimated 16.0 percent of the homes that resold last month. That was down from an estimated 16.8 percent the month before and 24.3 percent a year earlier.
...
Indicators of market distress continue to decline. Foreclosure activity remains well below year-ago and peak levels reached several years ago. Financing with multiple mortgages is low, while down payment sizes are stable, DataQuick reported.
emphasis added

Sales are down year-over-year, but the key is the percentage of distressed sales is down significantly - and the number of conventional sales are up about 40% year-over-year!

This is kind of a preview for the NAR June report that will be released tomorrow.  The headline June sales number will probably be below the consensus forecast, but the keys will be inventory and the increase in conventional sales (unfortunately the NAR doesn't do a good job of tracking distressed sales).

by Calculated Risk on 7/21/2013 08:01:00 AM

This is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.

Here is the unofficial problem bank list for July 19, 2013.

Changes and comments from surferdude808:

With the OCC releasing its actions through mid-June 2013 on Friday, there were many changes to the Unofficial Problem Bank List this week. For the week, there were 11 removals and three additions leaving the list at 734 institutions with assets of $267.2 billion. A year ago, the list held 905 institutions with assets of $349.7 billion.

This week the OCC and Federal Reserve terminated actions against 10 institutions. One has to go back to the week of April 27, 2012 when there were 11 terminations to find a week this busy. Actions were terminated against The Suffolk County National Bank of Riverhead, Riverhead, NY ($1.6 billion Ticker: SUBK); Sterling Bank and Trust, FSB, Southfield, MI ($893 million); Citizens National Bank of Texas, Waxahachie, TX ($605 million); Britton & Koontz Bank, N.A., Natchez, MS ($312 million Ticker: BKBK); Citizens Bank, National Association, Fort Scott, KS ($264 million); Rocky Mountain Bank, Jackson, WY; The First National Bank of Wamego, Wamego, KS ($153 million); Calusa National Bank, Punta Gorda, FL ($150 million); The First National Bank of Wellston, Wellston, OH ($95 million Ticker: MDWE); and The First National Bank of Sedan, Sedan, KS ($51 million). The other removal was Roebling Bank, Roebling, NJ ($156 million) through an unassisted acquisition.

The three additions this week were The Somerville National Bank, Somerville, OH ($178 million); RepublicBankAZ, N.A., Phoenix, AZ ($83 million); and Ruby Valley National Bank, Twin Bridges, MT ($81 million).

There is some news on Capitol Bancorp, Ltd. to pass along, a U.S. Bankruptcy judge will allow the company to sell its remaining seven banks at an auction. No other details on the auction have been made public.

Next Friday, we anticipate for the FDIC to release its actions through June 2013.

by Calculated Risk on 7/20/2013 04:06:00 PM

The NAR is scheduled to report June existing home sales on Monday. The consensus is for sales of 5.27 million on seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) basis. However economist Tom Lawler is estimating the NAR will report a June sales rate of 4.99 million.

I'm reminded of the Damon Runyon line paraphrasing Ecclesiastes:

"The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, but that's how the smart money bets."

Tom Lawler isn't always closer than the consensus, but that is the way to bet - and I expect existing home sales were less than the consensus in June.

Unfortunately a below consensus report also means more hand wringing about the "housing recovery".  That will be nonsense.

The problem is many people don't understand what "housing recovery" means.  There are really two recoveries: House prices and residential investment. Most people - homeowners and potential buyers - focus on prices, and for prices we should use the repeat sales indexes, and not the NAR median price (repeat sales indexes include Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, etc). What matters in the NAR report for prices is inventory and months-of-supply.

For GDP and jobs, the key is what the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) calls "residential investment" (RI) . For existing homes, only the broker's commission is part of GDP, but for new homes the entire sales price is part of GDP. There are some spillover effects from home sales (furniture, etc), but those aren't included in RI.

If existing home sales decline there is only a minor impact on RI and GDP. When we talk about the "housing recovery" for jobs and GDP, existing home sales are mostly irrelevant - the focus should be on new home sales, housing starts and home improvement.

This is a reminder that the key number in the existing home sales report is not sales, but inventory. It is mostly visible inventory that impacts prices. When we look at sales for existing homes, the focus should be on the composition between conventional and distressed, not total sales.

Bottom line: I expect sales to be below the consensus, but for conventional sales to be increasing.  I also expect further evidence that inventory bottomed early this year.  And, oh, expect some more uninformed hand wringing!

Note: Housing economist Tom Lawler has been sending me his predictions of what the NAR will report for 3 years.  The table below shows the consensus for each month, Lawler's predictions, and the NAR's initial reported level of sales. 

Usually when there has been a fairly large spread (like the current month) between Lawler's estimate and the "consensus", Lawler has been closer.  As an example, last month the consensus was 5.00 million SAAR, Lawler's forecast was 5.18 million, and the NAR reported 5.20 million.

Note: The consensus average miss was 170 thousand with a standard deviation of 190 thousand.  Lawler's average miss was 70 thousand with a standard deviation of 50 thousand.

Existing Home Sales, Forecasts and NAR Report millions, seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR)
Month	Consensus	Lawler	NAR reported1
May-10	6.20	5.83	5.66
Jun-10	5.30	5.30	5.37
Jul-10	4.66	3.95	3.83
Aug-10	4.10	4.10	4.13
Sep-10	4.30	4.50	4.53
Oct-10	4.50	4.46	4.43
Nov-10	4.85	4.61	4.68
Dec-10	4.90	5.13	5.28
Jan-11	5.20	5.17	5.36
Feb-11	5.15	5.00	4.88
Mar-11	5.00	5.08	5.10
Apr-11	5.20	NA	5.05
May-11	4.75	4.80	4.81
Jun-11	4.90	4.71	4.77
Jul-11	4.92	4.69	4.67
Aug-11	4.75	4.92	5.03
Sep-11	4.93	4.83	4.91
Oct-11	4.80	4.86	4.97
Nov-11	5.08	4.40	4.42
Dec-11	4.60	4.64	4.61
Jan-12	4.69	4.66	4.57
Feb-12	4.61	4.63	4.59
Mar-12	4.62	4.59	4.48
Apr-12	4.66	4.53	4.62
May-12	4.57	4.66	4.55
Jun-12	4.65	4.56	4.37
Jul-12	4.50	4.47	4.47
Aug-12	4.55	4.87	4.82
Sep-12	4.75	4.70	4.75
Oct-12	4.74	4.84	4.79
Nov-12	4.90	5.10	5.04
Dec-12	5.10	4.97	4.94
Jan-13	4.90	4.94	4.92
Feb-13	5.01	4.87	4.98
Mar-13	5.03	4.89	4.92
Apr-13	4.92	5.03	4.97
May-13	5.00	5.20	5.18
Jun-13	5.27	4.99
1NAR initially reported before revisions.

by Calculated Risk on 7/20/2013 11:30:00 AM

The key reports this week are the June existing home sales on Monday, and the June new home sales report on Wednesday.

For manufacturing, the Richmond and Kansas City regional manufacturing surveys for July will be released this week.

----- Monday, July 22nd -----
8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for June. This is a composite index of other data.

10:00 AM: Existing Home Sales for June from the National Association of Realtors (NAR).

The consensus is for sales of 5.27 million on seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) basis. Sales in May were at a 5.18 million SAAR.   Economist Tom Lawler is estimating the NAR will report a June sales rate of 4.99 million.

A key will be inventory and months-of-supply.

----- Tuesday, July 23rd -----
9:00 AM: FHFA House Price Index for May 2013. This was original a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index that deserves more attention. The consensus is for a 0.8% increase

10:00 AM: Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for July. The consensus is for a reading of 8 for this survey, unchanged from June (Above zero is expansion).

----- Wednesday, July 24th -----
7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

9:00 AM: The Markit US PMI Manufacturing Index Flash for July. The consensus is for an increase to 52.8 from 52.2 in June.

10:00 AM: New Home Sales for June from the Census Bureau.

This graph shows New Home Sales since 1963. The dashed line is the May sales rate.

The consensus is for an increase in sales to 481 thousand Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) in June from 476 thousand in May.

During the day: The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for June (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).

----- Thursday, July 25th -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for an increase to 341 thousand from 334 thousand last week.

8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for June from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 1.5% increase in durable goods orders.

11:00 AM: Kansas City Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for July. The consensus is for a reading of 0 for this survey, up from minus 5 in June (Above zero is expansion).

----- Friday, July 26th -----
9:55 AM: Reuter's/University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (final for July). The consensus is for a reading of 84.0.

by Calculated Risk on 7/20/2013 09:33:00 AM

Quite a few people have asked me about China.   My view is the impact of a Chinese slowdown - or even recession - will be minimal on the US.

Note: As always, I recommend reading Michael Pettis' China Financial Markets website. He has been way ahead of the curve on China. (Pettis' site feed sometimes gets hacked - that is the joke at the bottom of Krugman's post today).

Paul Krugman discusses three possible impacts: How Much Should We Worry About A China Shock?

Suppose that those of us now worried that China’s Ponzi bicycle is hitting a brick wall (or, as some readers have suggested, a BRIC wall) are right. How much should the rest of the world worry, and why?

I’d group this under three headings:

1. “Mechanical” linkages via exports, which are surprisingly small.

2. Commodity prices, which could be a bigger deal.

3. Politics and international stability, which involves some serious risks.

So, on the first: this is what many people immediately think of. China’s economy stumbles; China therefore buys less from the rest of the world; and the result is a global slump. Or, maybe not so much.

Some quick, rough, but I think useful math: In 2011, the combined GDP of all the world’s economies not including China was slightly over $60 trillion. Meanwhile, Chinese imports of goods and services were about $2 trillion, or around 3 percent of the rest of the world’s GDP.

Now suppose that China has a slowdown of 5 percent relative to trend. Imports would fall more than this; typical estimates of the “income elasticity” of imports (the percentage change from a 1 percent change in GDP, other things equal) are around 2. So we could be looking at a 10 percent fall in Chinese imports — an adverse shock to the rest of the world of one-tenth of 3 percent,or 0.3 percent of GDP. Not nothing, but not [catastrophic].

There is more in Krugman's post. The mechanical trade impact is the one everyone worries about, and it really isn't a huge concern.  On the second point, the US does sell some commodities to China (Lumber prices started falling when Chinese buying slowed).   However, overall for the US, lower commodity prices is mostly a positive.

The last one - political unrest - is the scary one and is complete unknown.

by Calculated Risk on 7/19/2013 07:42:00 PM

From Reuters: Morgan Stanley cuts second quarter U.S. GDP forecast to 0.3 percent

Morgan Stanley economist Ted Wieseman, but the softness in June nonetheless prompted him to cut Morgan Stanley’s Q2 GDP estimate to 0.3 percent from 0.4 percent.

From Merrill Lynch:

This week we are marking to market both our growth and inflation forecasts. On the growth side, the story is simple. With most of the data in, our tracking model pegs 2Q GDP growth at just 0.9%. ... Clearly, the fiscal shock and weak global growth are undercutting the recovery. The main reasons for the downward revision in 2Q are weaker inventory accumulation and a wider trade deficit.

This weakness is not a fluke: it reflects weakness in many key growth indicators. ...

That said, the good news is that we don’t think the weakness will be persistent. The consumer looks healthier heading into 2H, and manufacturing is starting to improve thanks to autos. Low inventories in 2Q give capacity to rebuild in 3Q. Thus, we are revising up 3Q GDP growth to 2.0% from 1.5%, and continue to expect 2.5% in 4Q. We are not out of the woods yet, but conditions are improving.

And Mark Zandi of Moody's Analytics last week:

The thing that changed is the GDP number.... That is really coming in much weaker than anyone had expected. Certainly than I had expected earlier in the year. It's tracking slightly positive and it's possible that it could be a negative print in Q2.

This slowdown is probably related to the significant drag from fiscal policy. I expect the fiscal policy drag to diminish and growth to improve going forward.