Monday, July 22, 2013

Existing Home Sales in June: 5.08 million SAAR, 5.2 months of supply

by Bill McBride on 7/22/2013 10:00:00 AM

The NAR reports: June Existing-Home Sales Slip but Prices Continue to Roll at Double-Digit Rates

Total existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, dipped 1.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.08 million in June from a downwardly revised 5.14 million in May, but are 15.2 percent higher than the 4.41 million-unit level in June 2012.

Total housing inventory at the end of June rose 1.9 percent to 2.19 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 5.2-month supply at the current sales pace, up from 5.0 months in May. Listed inventory remains 7.6 percent below a year ago, when there was a 6.4-month supply.
Existing Home SalesClick on graph for larger image.

This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1993.

Sales in June 2013 (5.08 million SAAR) were 1.2% lower than last month, and were 15.2% above the June 2012 rate.

The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes.

Existing Home InventoryAccording to the NAR, inventory increased to 2.19 million in June up from 2.15 million in May.   Inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually increases from the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer.

The last graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory.

Year-over-year Inventory Inventory decreased 7.6% year-over-year in June compared to June 2012. This is the 28th consecutive month with a YoY decrease in inventory, and the smallest YoY decrease since 2011 (I expect the YoY to turn positive soon).

Months of supply increased to 5.2 months in June.

This was below expectations of sales of 5.27 million (just above economist Tom Lawler's forecast).  For existing home sales, the key number is inventory - and inventory is still down year-over-year, although the declines are slowing.   This was another solid report.  I'll have more later ...

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