Wednesday, July 17, 2013

Lawler: Update on June existing Home Sales and Table of Distressed Sales and Cash buyers for Selected Cities

by Bill McBride on 7/17/2013 05:38:00 PM

From housing economist Tom Lawler:

Local realtor reports released since last Friday have been consistent with my early assessment that existing home sales as measured by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.99 million in June, down 3.7% from May’s pace. Limited data suggest that a mild slowdown in all-cash (and investor) buying may be a reason for the dip in June’s sales pace.
CR Note: The NAR is scheduled to report June existing home sales on Monday, July 22nd.  Based on Tom's earlier estimate, the NAR will report inventory at around 2.2 million for June, and months-of-supply around 5.3 (up from 5.1 months in May). This would still be a very low level of inventory - probably the lowest for June since 2002 or so - but a 6.3% year-over-year decline in inventory would be the smallest year-over-year decline since early 2011 (when inventory started to decline sharply).  Note: In May, inventory was down 10.1% compared to May 2012.   These smaller year-over-year declines suggest inventory bottomed earlier this year.

Tom Lawler also sent me the updated table below of short sales, foreclosures and cash buyers for several selected cities in June.

CR Note: Look at the two columns in the table for Total "Distressed" Share. In every area that has reported distressed sales so far, the share of distressed sales is down year-over-year - and down significantly in many areas. 

Also there has been a decline in foreclosure sales in all of these cities except Springfield, Ill.  Even short sales are now starting to decline year-over-year. 

Also, as Tom noted, the percent of cash buyers seems to be down a little in most areas.

 Short Sales ShareForeclosure Sales Share Total "Distressed" ShareAll Cash Share
Jun-13Jun-12Jun-13Jun-12Jun-13Jun-12Jun-13Jun-12
Las Vegas31.0%34.2%9.0%27.8%40.0%62.0%55.3%54.0%
Reno24.0%37.0%6.0%21.0%30.0%58.0%  
Phoenix12.7%32.8%8.7%14.1%21.5%46.8%37.5%46.9%
Sacramento23.2%31.0%7.5%19.7%30.7%50.7%29.9%33.4%
Minneapolis6.0%9.6%15.7%25.1%21.7%34.6%  
Mid-Atlantic 7.6%10.2%6.3%8.7%13.9%18.9%15.9%16.5%
Orlando18.7%28.5%18.1%25.2%36.8%53.7%49.8%51.7%
So. California*16.2%24.4%9.1%24.4%25.3%48.8%30.2%32.3%
Hampton Roads    22.8%28.8%  
Northeast Florida    35.6%39.9%  
Chicago    28.0%33.0%  
Toledo      28.1%33.0%
Tucson      32.8%32.9%
Omaha      14.9%14.4%
Pensacola      29.8%34.3%
Des Moines      17.5%18.9%
Houston  8.4%16.8%    
Memphis*  18.2%29.6%    
Birmingham AL  19.4%26.4%    
Springfield IL  12.0%9.2%    
*share of existing home sales, based on property records