by Calculated Risk on 7/12/2012 02:12:00 PM

Another house price index, this one is based on prices per sq ft ...

From Glenn Kelman at Redfin: June Prices Increased 3.0%, But Sales Slowing

Across 19 major metropolitan markets, June prices increased 3.0% year over year, and 2.6% month over month. The number of homes for sale declined 25.3% from June 2011 to June 2012, and by 2.4% since May. Sales increased 4.3% over last year, but actually slipped 1.1% since May. The percentage of listings that sold within 14 days of their debut remained steady since May at 28.5%.
...
Inventory has been slow to rise because some home-owners can’t sell; their home is worth less than they owe the bank. Many others more don’t want to sell, because they can rent their house for more each month than their bank payment, and because they believe prices may improve. With vacancies are on the decline and rents rising, for many sellers it just makes more sense to rent out the home rather than sell.

There is limited historical data for this index. In 2011, sales were fairly weak in the April through July period, and a 4.3% increase in year-over-year sales for June would be less than the approximately 10% year-over-year increase in sales NAR reported for April and May of this year.

The reported 25.3% decrease in inventory is similar to other sources and is a key driver for the small year-over-year price increase.

by Calculated Risk on 7/12/2012 11:15:00 AM

From CNBC: Warren Buffett: US Economic Growth Slowing, Europe Slipping 'Pretty Fast'

In a live CNBC interview from Sun Valley with Becky Quick of "Squawk Box," Buffett says the general economy's growth has "tempered down" so that it is now "more or less flat."

He does, however, see a "noticeable" pickup for residential housing from a "very low base" that "doesn't amount to a whole lot yet, but it's getting better."

For months, Buffett had been seeing general U.S. economic growth held back by a weak residential housing market.

Buffett also says things are beginning to "slip pretty fast" in Europe, especially over the past six weeks.

Warren Buffett (my transcript):

"I have a different story this time. For a couple of years, I've been telling you that everything except residential housing was improving at a moderate rate, not crawling, but not galloping either. But that residential housing was flat lining.

The last two months have been sort of the opposite. The general economy in the US has been more or less flat; the growth has tempered down. But residential housing - we're seeing a pickup - it is noticeable, it is from a very low base, and it doesn't amount to a whole lot yet - but it is getting better. You have a flip-flop on that."
...
The rest of the economy is slowing down - it is not heading downward - but it is not growing at the rate that it was earlier."

His comments on Europe were very negative.

by Calculated Risk on 7/12/2012 08:40:00 AM

The DOL reports:

In the week ending July 7, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 350,000, a decrease of 26,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 376,000. The 4-week moving average was 376,500, a decrease of 9,750 from the previous week's revised average of 386,250.

The previous week was revised up from 374,000 to 376,000.

From MarketWatch: "onetime factors such as fewer auto-sector layoffs than normal likely caused the sharp decline, the Labor Department said Thursday".

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since January 2000.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims declined to 376,500.

The sharp decline was probably due to onetime factors, plus this included the holiday week.

And here is a long term graph of weekly claims:

This was well below the consensus forecast of 375,000. With the holiday week and onetime factors, it is difficult to tell if there is any improvement - but this is the lowest level for the four week average since May.


All current Employment Graphs

by Calculated Risk on 7/11/2012 08:48:00 PM

Thursday will be another light day for economic data, but there will be plenty of discussion about the possibility of QE3. A few key dates for the Fed:

On Friday, Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart, a voting member of the FOMC and someone in the "middle", will speak on the economic outlook. Next week, on July 17th, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will testify before the Senate Banking Committee, and on July 18th he will testify House Financial Services Committee.

The next FOMC meeting is on July 31st and August 1st, and the key piece of economic data to be released before the meeting is the Q2 advance GDP report on Friday, July 27th. Also there will be more data on inflation (especially CPI on July 17th, and Q2 / June PCE price index).

On the FOMC minutes from Tim Duy: FOMC Minutes Not a Smoking Gun

The minutes of the June FOMC meeting are out, and they did not deliver the much-anticipated smoking gun that would indicate QE3 was on its way. In fact, I think the minutes raise questions about another round of QE3 at all. The minutes hold many hints that policymakers are struggling to find a new direction for policy, one not necessarily dependent on balance sheet expansion.
...
Bottom Line: The minutes leaves me with the sense that it isn't so much the outlook that is holding back the Fed from further stimulus, but a lack of faith in the beneficial effects of further quantitative easing. That lack of faith may be why the bar to QE3 seems so high. So high that Fed officials are searching for other tools as the next step. Until I see more specific suggestions of other tools, I would continue to expect QE as the tool of choice. Given concerns about the functioning of the Treasuries market, MBS would seem a suitable alternative. But a building desire to explore new tools could mean a delay in any additional action. Hopefully Fed officials will give us more guidance on specific alternatives in the weeks ahead.

And from Binyamin Appelbaum at the NY Times: Fed Is Torn on Tipping Point for Action

Paul Ashworth, chief United States economist at Capital Economics, was among the analysts who chose a position in the middle, writing to clients that “officials are edging closer to launching a third round of large-scale asset purchases, but it won’t become a reality unless the recovery loses even more momentum.”

• At 8:30 AM, the initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to increase slightly to 375 thousand.

• Also at 8:30 AM, Import and Export Prices for May will be released. The consensus is a for a 1.9% decrease in import prices.

by Calculated Risk on 7/11/2012 03:32:00 PM

CR Note: Yesterday I posted some distressed sales data for Sacramento. I'm following the Sacramento market to see the change in mix over time (short sales, foreclosure, conventional). There has been a clear shift to fewer distressed sales in Sacramento.

Economist Tom Lawler has been digging up similar data, and he sent me the following table yesterday for several more distressed areas (I added Sacramento). For all of these areas the share of distressed sales is down from June 2011 - and for the areas that break out short sales, the share of short sales has increased (Mid-Atlantic only increased slightly) and the share of foreclosure sales are down - and down significantly.

Previous comments from Lawler:

Note that the distressed sales shares in the below table are based on MLS data, and often based on certain “fields” or comments in the MLS files, and some have questioned the accuracy of the data. Some MLS/associations only report on overall “distressed” sales.

The most striking shift from a year ago, of course, is the sharp drop in the foreclosure share of home sales ...

CR Note: So far there is no evidence of an increase in distressed sales this summer following the mortgage settlement.

	Short Sales Share		Foreclosure Sales Share		Total "Distressed" Share
	12-June	11-June	12-June	11-June	12-June	11-June
Las Vegas	34.2%	21.6%	27.8%	47.2%	62.0%	68.8%
Reno	37.0%	25.0%	21.0%	41.0%	58.0%	66.0%
Phoenix	32.8%	27.0%	14.1%	40.8%	46.8%	67.8%
Sacramento	31.0%	22.2%	23.2%	43.0%	54.2%	65.2%
Mid-Atlantic (MRIS)	10.2%	10.0%	8.7%	14.9%	18.9%	24.9%
Charlotte					14.2%	30.6%

by Calculated Risk on 7/11/2012 02:00:00 PM

From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, June 19-20, 2012 . Excerpt:

Several participants commented that it would be desirable to explore the possibility of developing new tools to promote more-accommodative financial conditions and thereby support a stronger economic recovery.
...
A few members expressed the view that further policy stimulus likely would be necessary to promote satisfactory growth in employment and to ensure that the inflation rate would be at the Committee's goal. Several others noted that additional policy action could be warranted if the economic recovery were to lose momentum, if the downside risks to the forecast became sufficiently pronounced, or if inflation seemed likely to run persistently below the Committee's longer-run objective. The Committee agreed that it was prepared to take further action as appropriate to promote a stronger economic recovery and sustained improvement in labor market conditions in a context of price stability. A few members observed that it would be helpful to have a better understanding of how large the Federal Reserve's asset purchases would have to be to cause a meaningful deterioration in securities market functioning, and of the potential costs of such deterioration for the economy as a whole.

This seems to suggest that a "few" members were already prepared to vote for QE3, and "several" were willing to support QE3 if the economy loses momentum or downside risks increase or inflation is "persistently below the Committee's longer-run objective".

by Calculated Risk on 7/11/2012 12:24:00 PM

Something I've been saying for months, from the WSJ: The U.S. Housing Bust Is Over

Builders began work on 26% more single-family homes in May 2012 than the depressed levels of May 2011. The stock of unsold newly built homes is back to 2005 levels. In each of the past four quarters, housing construction has added to economic growth. In the first quarter, it accounted for 0.4 percentage points of the meager 1.9% growth rate.

"Even with the overall economy slowing," Wells Fargo Securities economists said, cautiously, in a note to clients, "the budding recovery in the housing market appears to be gradually gaining momentum."
...
Housing is still far from healthy ... Still, the upturn in housing is a milestone, a particularly welcome one amid a distressing dearth of jobs. For some time, housing has been one of the biggest causes of economic weakness. It has now—barely—moved to the plus side. "A little tail wind is a lot better than a headwind," says economist Chip Case, the "Case" in Case-Shiller.

"Manufacturing had led growth and construction had lagged," JPMorgan Chase economists said last week."Now the roles are reversed: Manufacturing growth has slowed as private construction comes to life."

For the housing industry, the recovery has started. As I've noted before, the debate is now about the strength of the recovery, not whether there is a recovery. The question about house prices is not as clear, although I think prices have bottomed for the national repeat sales indexes.

by Calculated Risk on 7/11/2012 08:30:00 AM

The Department of Commerce reported:

[T]otal May exports of $183.1 billion and imports of $231.8 billion resulted in a goods and services deficit of $48.7 billion, down from $50.6 billion in April, revised. May exports were $0.4 billion more than April exports of $182.7 billion. May imports were $1.6 billion less than April imports of $233.3 billion.

The trade deficit was at the consensus forecast of $48.7 billion.

The first graph shows the monthly U.S. exports and imports in dollars through May 2012.

Click on graph for larger image.

Exports increased in May and imports decreased. Exports are 10% above the pre-recession peak and up 4% compared to May 2011; imports are at the pre-recession peak, and up about 4% compared to May 2011.

The second graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through May.

The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.

Oil averaged $107.91 per barrel in May, down from $109.94 per barrel in April. This will decline further in June. The trade deficit with China increased to $26 billion in May, up from $24.9 billion in May 2011. Once again most of the trade deficit is due to oil and China.

Exports to the euro area were $17 billion in May, up from $16.4 billion in May 2011; so the euro area recession didn't lead to less US exports to the euro area in May.

by Calculated Risk on 7/11/2012 07:42:00 AM

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

The Refinance Index decreased 3 percent from the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 3 percent from one week earlier. ... This week’s results include an adjustment for the Fourth of July holiday.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($417,500 or less) decreased to 3.79 percent, the lowest rate in the history of the survey, from 3.86 percent, with points decreasing to 0.36 from 0.41 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.

Click on graph for larger image.

The decline in refinance activity was from a very high level.

The purchase index has increased for two consecutive weeks, but is mostly moving sideways.

by Calculated Risk on 7/10/2012 09:31:00 PM

On Wednesday the focus will be on the May trade balance report and the minutes of the June FOMC meeting:

• At 7:00 AM ET, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the weekly mortgage purchase applications index.

• At 8:30 AM, the Trade Balance report for May is scheduled to be released by the Census Bureau. The consensus is for the U.S. trade deficit to decrease to $48.7 billion in May, down from from $50.1 billion in April. Export activity to Europe will be closely watched due to economic weakness. Also oil prices started to decline in April, and that will probably reduce the value of oil imports in May.

• At 10:00 AM, the Monthly Wholesale Trade: Sales and Inventories report for May will be released. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in inventories.

• At 2:00 PM, the FOMC Minutes for the Meeting of June 19-20 will be released.


A question for the July economic contest: