by Calculated Risk on 8/03/2011 11:43:00 AM

Notes: Case-Shiller is the most followed house price index, but CoreLogic is used by the Federal Reserve and is followed by many analysts. The CoreLogic HPI is a three month weighted average of April, May and June (June weighted the most) and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA).

From CoreLogic: CoreLogic® Home Price Index Shows Third Consecutive Month-Over-Month Increase

CoreLogic ... today released its June Home Price Index (HPI) which shows that home prices in the U.S. increased by 0.7 percent in June 2011 compared to May 2011, the third consecutive month-over-month increase. According to CoreLogic, national home prices, including distressed sales, declined by 6.8 percent in June 2011 compared to June 2010 after declining by 6.7 percent* in May 2011 compared to May 2010. Excluding distressed sales, year-over-year prices declined by 1.1 percent in June 2011 compared to June 2010 and by 2.1* percent in May 2011 compared to May 2010. Distressed sales include short sales and real estate owned (REO) transactions.

“While there is a consistent and sustained seasonal improvement in prices over the last three months, prices are lower than a year ago due to the decline in prices after the expiration of the tax credit last year. The difference between the overall HPI and our index excluding distressed sales indicates that the price declines are more concentrated in the distressed sales market,” said Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic.

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

This graph shows the national CoreLogic HPI data since 1976. January 2000 = 100.

The index was up 0.7% in June, and is down 6.8% over the last year, and off 31.7% from the peak.

Some of this increase is seasonal (the CoreLogic index is NSA) and the index is still off 6.8% from last June. This is also the eleventh consecutive month showing a year-over-year decline.

by Calculated Risk on 8/03/2011 10:00:00 AM

The July ISM Non-manufacturing index was at 52.7%, down from 53.3% in June. The employment index decreased in July to 52.5%, down from 54.1% in June. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 contraction.

From the Institute for Supply Management: July 2011 Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®

Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in July for the 20th consecutive month, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, C.P.M., CFPM, chair of the Institute for Supply Management™ Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. "The NMI registered 52.7 percent in July, 0.6 percentage point lower than the 53.3 percent registered in June, and indicating continued growth at a slower rate in the non-manufacturing sector. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index increased 2.7 percentage points to 56.1 percent, reflecting growth for the 24th consecutive month and at a faster rate than in June. The New Orders Index decreased by 1.9 percentage points to 51.7 percent. The Employment Index decreased 1.6 percentage points to 52.5 percent, indicating growth in employment for the 11th consecutive month, but at a slower rate than in June. The Prices Index decreased 4.3 percentage points to 56.6 percent, indicating that prices increased at a slower rate in July when compared to June. According to the NMI, 13 non-manufacturing industries reported growth in July. Respondents' comments remain mixed; however, for the most part they indicate that business conditions are flattening out."
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

This graph shows the ISM non-manufacturing index (started in January 2008) and the ISM non-manufacturing employment diffusion index.

This was below the consensus forecast of 54.0%.

by Calculated Risk on 8/03/2011 08:15:00 AM

ADP reports:

Employment in the U.S. nonfarm private business sector rose 114,000 from June to July on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the latest ADP National Employment Report® released today. The estimated advance in employment from May to June was revised down modestly to 145,000, from the initially reported 157,000.
...
Employment in the service-providing sector rose by 121,000 in July, marking 19 consecutive months of employment gains. Employment in the goods-producing sector fell by 7,000 in July, the second decline in three months. Manufacturing employment decreased 1,000 in July, which has seen growth in seven of the past nine months.

Note: ADP is private nonfarm employment only (no government jobs).

This was above the consensus forecast of an increase of 100,000 private sector jobs in July. The BLS reports on Friday, and the consensus is for an increase of 75,000 payroll jobs in July, on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis.

The ADP report has not been very useful in predicting the BLS report.

Yesterday:
• Recession Measures (Graphs showing how little the economy has recovered).
• FHA sells record number of REO in June
• U.S. Light Vehicle Sales 12.23 million Annual Rate in July

by Calculated Risk on 8/03/2011 07:44:00 AM

The MBA reports: Mortgage Applications Increase, But Still Low in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

The Refinance Index increased 7.8 percent from the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 5.1 percent from one week earlier
...
"Mortgage rates fell, with the rate on 15-year mortgages reaching a new low in our survey. Refinance application volume increased, but even though 30-year mortgage rates are back below 4.5 percent, the refinance index is still almost 30 percent below last year's level. Factors such as negative equity and a weak job market continue to constrain borrowers. Purchase activity increased off of a low base, returning to levels of one month ago, but remains weak by historical standards." [said Michael Fratantoni, MBA's Vice President of Research and Economics].
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 4.45 percent from 4.57 percent, with points decreasing to 0.78 from 1.14 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value (LTV) ratio loans.

The following graph shows the MBA Purchase Index and four week moving average since 1990.

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

The four week average of the purchase index is at best moving sideways at about 1997 levels. Of course this doesn't include the large number of cash buyers ... but this suggests purchase activity remains fairly weak.

Mortgage rates fell last week - and will be even lower this week.

by Calculated Risk on 8/02/2011 07:36:00 PM

• Europe is a mess. Here is a graph of the 10 year spread (Italy to Germany) from Bloomberg. And for Spain to Germany. The Italian spread is at 3.713, and the Spanish spread is at 3.87. Both new highs ...

• As we've been discussing for several months ... from Nick Timiraos at the WSJ: Sliding Sales Listings Lift Housing Outlook

The number of homes listed for sale declined sharply in a number of U.S. cities during the second quarter, offering glimmers of hope that some housing markets are starting to recover.

Earlier:
• Recession Measures (Graphs showing how little the economy has recovered).

• FHA sells record number of REO in June

• U.S. Light Vehicle Sales 12.23 million Annual Rate in July

by Calculated Risk on 8/02/2011 03:47:00 PM

Based on an estimate from Autodata Corp, light vehicle sales were at a 12.23 million SAAR in July. That is up 6.1% from July 2010, and up 6.2% from the sales rate last month (June 2011).

Although still below the sales rate earlier this year - before the tragedy in Japan - this was above the consensus forecast of 11.9 million SAAR.

It appears most of the supply issues will be resolved over the next 30 to 60 days, and sales will probably be stronger in August.

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

This graph shows the historical light vehicle sales (seasonally adjusted annual rate) from the BEA (blue) and an estimate for July (red, light vehicle sales of 12.23 million SAAR from Autodata Corp).

The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967.

Note: dashed line is current estimated sales rate.

Growth in auto sales should make a solid contribution to Q3 GDP as sales bounce back from Q2, however further sales growth will obviously depend on the overall economy and jobs and income growth.

by Calculated Risk on 8/02/2011 03:11:00 PM

Note: I'll post on vehicle sales soon.

Earlier this year, Tom Lawler noted that the FHA was having REO inventory problems, and the FHA's REO inventory increased in Q1.

It now appears the FHA REO problem has been solved. The FHA sold a record number of REO in April, more in May, and another new record in June.

According to HUD, the FHA acquired 7,667 REO in June and sold a record 13,609 properties (breaking the record of 12,671 properties sold in May). The FHA REO inventory has declined from 69,958 at the end of Q1 2011, to 54,645 at the end of Q2.

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

Fannie and Freddie are expected to release results including REO aquisitions and inventory later this week. From Diana Golobay at HousingWire: Fannie Earnings Expected Later This Week, Freddie After

Freddie Mac spokesperson Michael Cosgrove noted the company could release its Q210 earnings later this week but may wait until close of business Monday. Fannie Mae spokesperson Jason Vasquez also said earnings are anticipated "sometime this week," ... it is believed that Fannie will release Thursday, with Freddie to follow after, sources say.

I expect Fannie and Freddie to report declines in REO inventory in Q2 too.

by Calculated Risk on 8/02/2011 12:55:00 PM

By request, here are four key indicators used by the NBER for business cycle dating: GDP, Employment, Industrial production and real personal income less transfer payments.

Note: The following graphs are all constructed as a percent of the peak in each indicator. This shows when the indicator has bottomed - and when the indicator has returned to the level of the previous peak. If the indicator is at a new peak, the value is 100%.

These graphs show that no major indicator has returned to the pre-recession levels - and most are still way below the pre-recession peaks.

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

This graph is for real GDP through Q2 2011 and shows real GDP is still 0.4% below the previous pre-recession peak.

At the worst point, real GDP was off 5.1% from the 2007 peak.

And real GDP has performed better than other indicators ...

This graph shows real personal income less transfer payments as a percent of the previous peak.

With the revisions, this measure was off almost 11% at the trough - a significant downward revision and shows the recession was much worse than originally thought.

Real personal income less transfer payments is still 5.1% below the previous peak.

It will be some time before this indicator returns to pre-recession levels.

This graph is for industrial production through June.

Industrial production had been one of the stronger performing sectors because of inventory restocking and some growth in exports.

However industrial production is still 7.6% below the pre-recession peak, and it will probably be some time before industrial production returns to pre-recession levels.

The final graph is for employment. This is similar to the graph I post every month comparing percent payroll jobs lost in several recessions.

On the timing of the trough of the recession, GDP and industrial production would suggest the end of Q2 2009 (and June 2009). The other two indicators would suggest later troughs.

And of course the recovery in all indicators has been very sluggish compared to recent recessions.

by Calculated Risk on 8/02/2011 10:41:00 AM

On Friday, the BEA released revisions for GDP that showed the recession was significantly worse than originally estimated. This morning the BEA released revisions for Personal Income and Outlays.

One of the key measures of the economy is personal income less transfer payments, in real terms. This is also one of the measures the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) uses in business cycle dating:

The committee places particular emphasis on two monthly measures of activity across the entire economy: (1) personal income less transfer payments, in real terms and (2) employment.

The following graph shows personal income less transfer payments as a percent of the previous peak.

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

Prior to the revisions, the BEA reported this measure was off close to 7% from the previous peak at the trough of the recession.

With the revisions, this measure was off almost 11% at the trough - a significant downward revision and shows the recession was much worse than originally thought.

Real personal income less transfer payments is still 5.1% below the previous peak.

by Calculated Risk on 8/02/2011 09:03:00 AM

The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for June:

Personal income increased $18.7 billion, or 0.1 percent ... Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) decreased $21.9 billion, or 0.2 percent.
...
Real PCE decreased less than 0.1 percent. ... The price index for PCE decreased 0.2 percent in June

The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through June (2005 dollars). Note that the y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

PCE decreased 0.2 in June, and real PCE decreased less than 0.1% as the price index for PCE decreased 0.2 percent in June. On a quarterly basis, PCE barely increased in Q2 from Q1 (this was in the GDP report Friday).

Note: The PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 0.1 percent.

The personal saving rate was at 5.4% in June.

Personal saving -- DPI less personal outlays -- was $620.6 billion in June, compared with $581.7 billion in May. Personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income was 5.4 percent in June, compared with 5.0 percent in May.

This graph shows the saving rate starting in 1959 (using a three month trailing average for smoothing) through the June Personal Income report.

Real PCE has declined for three straight months - this was expected based on the weak GDP report, but this is very weak.