by Bill McBride on 8/02/2011 03:47:00 PM
Tuesday, August 02, 2011
Based on an estimate from Autodata Corp, light vehicle sales were at a 12.23 million SAAR in July. That is up 6.1% from July 2010, and up 6.2% from the sales rate last month (June 2011).
Although still below the sales rate earlier this year - before the tragedy in Japan - this was above the consensus forecast of 11.9 million SAAR.
It appears most of the supply issues will be resolved over the next 30 to 60 days, and sales will probably be stronger in August.
Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.
This graph shows the historical light vehicle sales (seasonally adjusted annual rate) from the BEA (blue) and an estimate for July (red, light vehicle sales of 12.23 million SAAR from Autodata Corp).
The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967.
Note: dashed line is current estimated sales rate.
Growth in auto sales should make a solid contribution to Q3 GDP as sales bounce back from Q2, however further sales growth will obviously depend on the overall economy and jobs and income growth.