by Calculated Risk on 7/07/2011 08:30:00 AM

The DOL reports:

In the week ending July 2, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 418,000, a decrease of 14,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 432,000. The 4-week moving average was 424,750, a decrease of 3,000 from the previous week's revised average of 427,750.

Special Factor: Minnesota has indicated that approximately 2,500 of their reported initial claims are a result of state employees filing due to the state government shutdown.

This is the 13th straight week with initial claims above 400,000, and the 4-week average is at about the same the level as in January.

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims for the last 40 years.

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased slightly this week to 424,750.

Weekly claims were below 400 thousand in March, and have increased back to just over 400 thousand for the last three months.

by Calculated Risk on 7/07/2011 08:15:00 AM

ADP reports:

Employment in the U.S. nonfarm private business sector rose 157,000 from May to June on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the latest ADP National Employment Report® released today. The estimated advance in employment from April to May was revised down, but only slightly, to 36,000 from the initially reported 38,000.
...
Today’s ADP National Employment Report estimates employment in the service-providing sector rose by 130,000 in June, nearly three times faster than in May, marking 18 consecutive months of employment gains. Employment in the goods-producing sector rose 27,000 in June, more than reversing the decline of 10,000 in May. Manufacturing employment rose 24,000 in June, which has seen growth in seven of the past eight months.

Note: ADP is private nonfarm employment only (no government jobs).

This was well above the consensus forecast of an increase of 70,000 private sector jobs in June. The BLS reports on Friday, and the consensus is for an increase of 110,000 payroll jobs in June, on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis.

As I mentioned last night, the ISM employment indexes suggest that the consensus for June is a little low - and this ADP report also suggests that the BLS report might be above consensus on Friday.

Last night ...
• Reis: Apartment Vacancy Rate falls to 6% in Q2

by Calculated Risk on 7/07/2011 12:32:00 AM

Reis reported that the apartment vacancy rate (82 markets) fell to 6.0% in Q2 from 6.2% in Q1. The vacancy rate was at 7.8% in Q2 2010 and peaked at 8.0% at the end of 2009.

From the WSJ: Rents Rise, Vacancies Go Down

Vacancies ... fell in 72 of the 82 markets during the second-quarter vacancy rate to 6%, the lowest since 2008 and compared with 7.8% a year earlier, according to Reis.
...
The average effective rent, the amount paid after discounting, was $997 in the second quarter of the year, up from $974 a year earlier ...

Landlords filled a net 33,000 units in the second quarter, a slowdown from the 45,000 units they filled in the first quarter.
...
Meanwhile, supply remains constrained. Roughly 8,700 new apartment units opened during the second quarter, the second-lowest quarterly tally for new completions since Reis began collecting data in 1999.

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

This graph shows the apartment vacancy rate starting in 2005.

Reis is just for large cities, but this decline in vacancy rates is happening just about everywhere.

A few key points we've been discussing:
• Vacancy rates are falling fast (the excess supply is being absorbed). Note: The excess housing supply includes both apartments and single family homes.

• A record low number of multi-family units will be completed this year (2011). Only 8,700 apartments came on the market in Q1 (in the Reis survey area). This is the second lowest quarter since Reis has been tracking completions - the lowest was 6,000 last quarter.

• The falling vacancy rate is pushing push up effective rents. This also pulls down the price-to-rent ratio for house prices.

• Multi-family starts are increasing, and that will help both GDP and employment growth this year. These new starts will not be completed until 2012 or 2013, so vacancy rates will probably decline all year.

by Calculated Risk on 7/06/2011 09:05:00 PM

From CNBC: June Jobs Data to Show 125,000 Added: Hatzius

"Clearly the economy weakened over the last few months so some deceleration makes sense," [Goldman Sachs chief U.S. economist Jan Hatzius] said, but the May figure [54,000 jobs added] was "below what other indicators of labor market activity would suggest."

The June report, he said, will "provide a correction to that picture," although he said adding 125,000 jobs is "still not particularly strong."

The consensus forecast, according to Bloomberg, is for an increase of 110,000 payroll jobs in June.

CR Note: The labor indicators are mixed. Initial weekly unemployment claims have been fairly weak (above 400,000 per week all month), and the small business survey suggested June was a "bust". However the ISM employment indexes showed faster expansion in June.

The ISM manufacturing employment index increased to 59.9%, up from 58.2% in May, and the ISM non-manufacturing index increased slightly to 54.1%. Based on a historical correlation between the ISM indexes and the BLS employment report, these readings would suggest close to 200,000 payroll jobs added for private services and manufacturing in June (that seems high, but it is probably one of the indicators that Hatzius is looking at).

by Calculated Risk on 7/06/2011 05:13:00 PM

In February, the settlement was rumored to be $20 billion.

Then in May the settlement was rumored to be $5 Billion.

Now the NY Post is reporting $60 billion!

From the NY Post: AGs, banks near $60B deal on foreclosures

America's biggest mortgage servicers are closing in on a deal with federal and state officials to settle some of the thorniest foreclosure fiasco problems -- including the robo-signing issue, The Post has learned.

The proposed settlement with the Department of Justice and 50 state attorneys general, once thought to be in the neighborhood of $20 billion, could range as high as $60 billion and include a provision for principal reduction, sources close to the discussions said.

But what does "$60 billion" really mean? If the final number is in the $60 billion range, it will probably include already completed principal reductions and modifications. If so, the headline number would be meaningless.

Update: From Barclays Capital analysts via the WSJ: Here’s How a $60B Foreclosuregate Settlement Might Get Divided (ht sum luk)

by Calculated Risk on 7/06/2011 01:58:00 PM

From National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB): NFIB Jobs Statement: June is a Bust, but July Looks Hopeful (link fixed)

“New jobs are not to be found on Main Street. For small firms, reported job losses per firm declined sharply in June as did the net percent of firms that increased employment over the last 3 months." [said NFIB Chief economist William C. Dunkelberg]
...
"Over the next three months, 11 percent plan to increase employment (down 2 points), and 7 percent plan to reduce their workforce (down 1 point), yielding a seasonally adjusted net 3 percent of owners planning to create new jobs, a 4 point gain from May. So, going forward, the job picture is a bit brighter than June’s actual dismal performance."

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

This graph shows the net hiring plans for the next three months.

Hiring plans increased in June and this is the highest level since February.

Note: Small businesses have a larger percentage of real estate and retail related companies than the overall economy. With the high percentage of real estate (including small construction companies), I expect small business hiring to remain sluggish for some time.

by Calculated Risk on 7/06/2011 01:07:00 PM

Just a data post ...

Last night I posted on the new GSE conforming limits and I combined two FHFA spreadsheets to show the change by city. Here is the spreadsheet with the current loan limits and the new loan limits (sorted by largest change in limit).

As Tom Lawler noted back in April, effective Oct 1st "the conforming loan limit will revert back to those established under the Housing and Economic Recovery Act (HERA) of 2008. That act upped the conforming loan limit in many parts of the country, but the HERA hike was trumped by the Economic Stimulus Act (ESA) of 2008 and the Continuing Appropriations Act of 2011."

Here is the source data from the FHFA:
1) Spreadsheet: Maximum Loan Limits for Loans Originated between 10/1/2010 and 9/30/2011 (Same as Limits for 1/1/10-9/30/10 Originations)
2) Spreadsheet: Maximum Loan Limits that Apply to Loans Acquired in Calendar Year 2011 and Originated after 9/30/2011 or Prior to 7/1/2007

by Calculated Risk on 7/06/2011 10:00:00 AM

The June ISM Non-manufacturing index was at 53.3%, down from 54.6% in May. The employment index increased in June to 54.1%, up from 54.0% in May. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 contraction.

From the Institute for Supply Management: June 2011 Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®

Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in June for the 19th consecutive month, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, C.P.M., CFPM, chair of the Institute for Supply Management™ Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. "The NMI registered 53.3 percent in June, 1.3 percentage points lower than the 54.6 percent registered in May, and indicating continued growth at a slower rate in the non-manufacturing sector. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index decreased 0.2 percentage point to 53.4 percent, reflecting growth for the 23rd consecutive month, but at a slightly slower rate than in May. The New Orders Index decreased by 3.2 percentage points to 53.6 percent. The Employment Index increased 0.1 percentage point to 54.1 percent, indicating growth in employment for the 10th consecutive month and at a slightly faster rate than in May. The Prices Index decreased 8.7 percentage points to 60.9 percent, indicating that prices increased at a slower rate in June when compared to May. According to the NMI, 15 non-manufacturing industries reported growth in June. Respondents' comments are mixed about the business climate and vary by industry and company. The most prominent concern remains about the volatility of prices."emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

This graph shows the ISM non-manufacturing index (started in January 2008) and the ISM non-manufacturing employment diffusion index.

This was below the consensus forecast of 54.0%.

by Calculated Risk on 7/06/2011 07:52:00 AM

The MBA reports: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

The Refinance Index decreased 9.2 percent from the previous week. The Refinance Index has decreased for 3 consecutive weeks, reaching its lowest level since May 6, 2011. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 4.8 percent from one week earlier.
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to 4.69 percent from 4.46 percent, with points decreasing to 0.90 from 1.19 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value (LTV) ratio loans. This is the highest 30-year rate recorded in the survey since the middle of May 2011.

The following graph shows the MBA Purchase Index and four week moving average since 1990.

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

The four week average of purchase activity is at about 1997 levels - and mostly moving sideways. Of course there is a very high percentage of cash buyers right now, but this suggests weak existing home sales through the next month or two.

by Calculated Risk on 7/06/2011 01:32:00 AM

From Reuters: Sluggish economy slows US office market rebound

The U.S. office vacancy rate stood at 17.5 percent at the end of the second quarter, according to Reis. The rate was the same as the first quarter, when vacancies posted the first decline in nearly four years.
...
The average asking rent rose 0.2 percent to $27.72 per square foot, according to Reis. Factoring in months of free rent and other concessions landlords offer to attract tenants, the so-called effective rent also rose 0.2 percent in the second quarter, to $22.25 per square feet.

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

This graph shows the office vacancy rate starting in 1991.

Reis is reporting the vacancy rate was at 17.5% in Q2 2011, the same rate as in Q1, and up from 17.4% in Q2 2010. It appears the office vacancy rate might have peaked - and is now moving sideways. It will be a good sign when the vacancy rate starts falling.

Reis should release the Mall and Apartment vacancy rates over the next few days.