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Wednesday, July 06, 2011

Goldman's Hatzius forecasts 125,000 payroll jobs added in June

by Calculated Risk on 7/06/2011 09:05:00 PM

From CNBC: June Jobs Data to Show 125,000 Added: Hatzius

"Clearly the economy weakened over the last few months so some deceleration makes sense," [Goldman Sachs chief U.S. economist Jan Hatzius] said, but the May figure [54,000 jobs added] was "below what other indicators of labor market activity would suggest."

The June report, he said, will "provide a correction to that picture," although he said adding 125,000 jobs is "still not particularly strong."
The consensus forecast, according to Bloomberg, is for an increase of 110,000 payroll jobs in June.

CR Note: The labor indicators are mixed. Initial weekly unemployment claims have been fairly weak (above 400,000 per week all month), and the small business survey suggested June was a "bust". However the ISM employment indexes showed faster expansion in June.

The ISM manufacturing employment index increased to 59.9%, up from 58.2% in May, and the ISM non-manufacturing index increased slightly to 54.1%. Based on a historical correlation between the ISM indexes and the BLS employment report, these readings would suggest close to 200,000 payroll jobs added for private services and manufacturing in June (that seems high, but it is probably one of the indicators that Hatzius is looking at).