by Calculated Risk on 7/30/2010 09:49:00 PM

The Cowlitz Bank failed.
Udderly Ridiculous!
Their milk shake was drank.

For whom the bell tolls?
Liberty pushed out to sea
Farewell to assets.
by Soylent Green is People
From the FDIC: Heritage Bank, Olympia, Washington, Assumes All of the Deposits of The Cowlitz Bank, Longview, Washington

As of March 31, 2010, The Cowlitz Bank had approximately $529.3 million in total assets and $513.9 million in total deposits. Heritage Bank paid the FDIC a premium of 1.0 percent for the deposits of The Cowlitz Bank. ...

The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $68.9 million. ... The Cowlitz Bank is the 107th FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the eighth in Washington. The last FDIC-insured institution closed in the state was Washington First International Bank, Seattle, on June 11, 2010.

From the FDIC: Home Federal Bank, Nampa, Idaho, Assumes All of the Deposits of LibertyBank, Eugene, Oregon

As of March 31, 2010, LibertyBank had approximately $768.2 million in total assets and $718.5 million in total deposits. Home Federal Bank paid the FDIC a premium of 1.0 percent for the deposits of LibertyBank. ...

The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $115.3 million. .... LibertyBank is the 108th FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the third in Oregon. The last FDIC-insured institution closed in the state was Home Valley Bank, Cave Junction, on July 23, 2010.

That makes 5 today.

by Calculated Risk on 7/30/2010 08:20:00 PM

The Census Bureau released the weekly payroll data for the week ending July 17th this week (ht Bob_in_MA). If we subtract the number of temporary 2010 Census workers in the week containing the 12th of the month, from the same week for the previous month - this provides a close estimate for the impact of the Census hiring on payroll employment.

The Census Bureau releases the actual number with the employment report.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the number of Census workers paid each week. The red labels are the weeks of the BLS payroll survey.

The Census payroll decreased from 344,157 for the week ending June 12th to 200,346 for the week ending July 17th.

So my estimate for the impact of the Census on July payroll employment is minus 144 thousand (this will probably be close). The employment report will be released on August 6th, and the headline number for July - including Census numbers - will probably be negative again. But a key number will be the hiring ex-Census (so we will add back the Census workers again this month).

The following table compares the weekly payroll report estimate to the monthly BLS report on Census hiring (the weekly report is revised slightly, so the correlation looks better than in real time):

	Weekly Pay Period	Change (based on weekly report)	Monthly BLS	Change (monthly)
Jan	25		24
Feb	41	16	39	15
Mar	96	55	87	48
Apr	156	61	154	67
May	574	418	564	410
Jun	344	-230	339	-225
Jul	200	-144
All thousands

There will be one more large decline in temporary Census workers in August, and then most of the remaining workers will be let go over the next several months. I'll have more on July employment this Sunday in the weekly "Look ahead".

by Calculated Risk on 7/30/2010 06:10:00 PM

Florida condos
Ghostly towers of failure
Like area banks
by Soylent Green is People
From the FDIC: Centennial Bank, Conway, Arkansas, Acquires All of the Deposits of Two Institutions in Florida

As of March 31, 2010, Bayside Savings Bank had total assets of $66.1 million and total deposits of $52.4 million. Coastal Community Bank had total assets of $372.9 million and total deposits of $363.2 million.
...
The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $16.2 million for Bayside Savings Bank and $94.5 million for Coastal Community Bank. ... These two closings bring total closures for the year to 106 banks in the nation, and the 19th and 20th in Florida. Prior to these failures, the last bank closed in Florida was Sterling Bank, Lantana, on July 23, 2010.

Three down today.

Note: The FDIC released the June enforcement actions today, and the unofficial list will be over 800 tonight.

by Calculated Risk on 7/30/2010 05:30:00 PM

Red ink rivers rise
Bankers pray for sweet relief.
Survival in doubt
by Soylent Green is People
From the FDIC: State Bank and Trust Company, Macon, Georgia, Assumes All of the Deposits of NorthWest Bank and Trust, Acworth, Georgia

As of March 31, 2010, NorthWest Bank and Trust had approximately $167.7 million in total assets and $159.4 million in total deposits. ...

The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $39.8 million. ... NorthWest Bank and Trust is the 104th FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the 11th in Georgia. The last FDIC-insured institution closed in the state was Crescent Bank and Trust Company, Jasper, on July 23, 2010.

It is Friday!

by Calculated Risk on 7/30/2010 03:44:00 PM

How the NAR calculates existing home inventory is a bit of a mystery. However housing economist Tom Lawler has been tracking inventory several different ways. For July, Lawler reports listings totaled 4,038,133, up about 1.6% from June (using Realtor.com). And this brings us to the double digit months-of-supply watch ...

For June, the NAR reported sales were at a 5.37 million seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), and inventory was at 3.992 million.

To calculated the months of supply, divide 3.992 by 5.37 and multiply by 12 months.

This gives 8.92 months-of-supply (note: there is a seasonal pattern for inventory, but the NAR uses the NSA data).

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the 'months-of-supply' metric.

The NAR reported that the months-of-supply increased to 8.9 months in June.

Since we know sales collapsed in July (based on pending home sales and other reports), and using Lawler's estimate for the level of inventory, we can calculate how far sales would have had to fall in July to hit double digits months-of-supply:

For: Months of Supply	Then: July Sales (millions, SAAR)
10	4.85
11	4.40
12	4.04

For 12 months of supply, the sales rate (SAAR) would equal inventory.

My initial guess is we will see double digit months-of-supply in July, and for a number of the months thereafter. We might even break the cycle high of 11.2 months set in 2008. If months-of-supply increases sharply as I expect, then there will be additional downward pressure on house prices.

by Calculated Risk on 7/30/2010 02:04:00 PM

In the previous post I confused annual rates and quarterly rates. Sorry.

Real PCE is 0.85% below the pre-recession peak, so PCE would have to grow at 3.4% in Q3 for the economy to be back to the pre-recession level.

Real GDP is 1.1% below the pre-recession peak, so GDP would have to grow at 4.3% in Q3 to be back to the pre-recession level.

With a 2nd half slowdown, I don't expect to reach those levels until the end of the year or in 2011.

Note: the graphs and quarterly data are all correct - just the annual comment that I added was in error (ht Tehan)

by Calculated Risk on 7/30/2010 11:32:00 AM

Error Correction: Sorry - I confused annual rates and quarterly rates.

Real GDP is 1.1% below the pre-recession peak, so if GDP would have to grow at 4.4% in Q3 the economy to be back to the pre-recession level.

Real PCE is 0.85% below the pre-recession peak, so PCE would have to grow at 3.4% in Q3 to be back to the pre-recession level.
________________________________________________________

These two graphs show the revisions for real GDP and PCE.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

The recession was clearly worse than originally estimated (we suspected this already using Gross Domestic Income).

In fact real GDP in Q2 2010 was lower than originally reported for Q1 2010. And annualized real GDP is still 1.1% below the pre-recession peak. This means that real GDP would have to grow at a 4.3% rate over the next quarter to reach the recession peak.

This shows that St Louis Fed President Bullard was too optimistic in a speech last month. From Bullard in June: The Global Recovery and Monetary Policy

"As of the first quarter of 2010, real GDP stands just shy of the 2008 second quarter level, so that growth of about 1.25 percent would be sufficient to allow real GDP to surpass the previous peak. At that point, the U.S. economy would be fully "recovered" from the very sharp downturn of late 2008 and early 2009. To be clear, the 1.25 percent is a quarterly number, and would be 5.0 percent at an annual rate. Although I think that 5.0 percent at an annual rate is too much to expect for current quarter real GDP growth, it seems like a reasonable possibility over the next two quarters combined. Given these conditions, I expect the U.S. recovery in GDP to be complete in the third quarter of this year."

I disagreed with him, and pointed out that GDI suggested downward revisions.

Real PCE was revised down even more.

Annualized real PCE is now 0.85% below the pre-recession peak, and would have to grow 3.4% over the next quarter to reach the previous peak.

Cleveland Fed President Sandra Pianalto had it right in February: When the Small Stuff Is Anything But Small

[I]t may take years just to get back to the level of output we enjoyed in 2007, just before the economic crisis began.

If things go well, the economy will be back to pre-recession levels later this year or in 2011. No wonder there is so little investment. And no wonder there is so little hiring!

by Calculated Risk on 7/30/2010 09:45:00 AM

From the Institute for Supply Management – Chicago:

The Chicago Purchasing Managers reported the CHICAGO BUSINESS BAROMETER rebounded, marking a tenth month of growth.

The overall index increased to 62.3 from 59.1. Note: any number above 50 shows expansion.

Employment improved to 56.6 from 54.2 in June.

The new orders index increased to 64.6 from 59.1.

Overall this was a positive report. The national ISM manufacturing index will be released on Monday.

by Calculated Risk on 7/30/2010 08:30:00 AM

From the BEA:

Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 2.4 percent in the second quarter of 2010, (that is, from the first quarter to the second quarter), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 3.7 percent.

A few key numbers:

"Real personal consumption expenditures increased 1.6 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 1.9 percent in the first."

PCE is slowing.

Investment: Nonresidential structures increased 5.2 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 17.8 percent. Equipment and software increased 21.9 percent, compared with an increase of 20.4 percent. Real residential fixed investment increased 27.9 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 12.3 percent.

Residential investment was boosted by the tax credit and will decline in Q3.

"The change in real private inventories added 1.05 percentage points to the second-quarter changein real GDP after adding 2.64 percentage points to the first-quarter change."

That is probably the end of the inventory adjustment.

And here is a summary of the revisions:

Quarter	GDP	GDP Revised	Change
2007-I	1.2%	0.9%	-0.3%
2007-II	3.2%	3.2%	0.0%
2007-III	3.6%	2.3%	-1.3%
2007-IV	2.1%	2.9%	0.8%
2008-I	-0.7%	-0.7%	0.0%
2008-II	1.5%	0.6%	-0.9%
2008-III	-2.7%	-4.0%	-1.3%
2008-IV	-5.4%	-6.8%	-1.4%
2009-I	-6.4%	-4.9%	1.5%
2009-II	-0.7%	-0.7%	0.0%
2009-III	2.2%	1.6%	-0.6%
2009-IV	5.6%	5.0%	-0.6%
2010-I	2.7%	3.7%	1.0%
2010-II		2.4%

The recession was worse in 2008 than originally estimated.

Q1 2010 was revised up, but Q3 and Q4 2009 were revised down. So the recovery is a little weaker than originally estimated.

I'll have some graphs soon.

by Calculated Risk on 7/29/2010 11:14:00 PM

I don't follow house prices in Australia ... or Canada ... but I'm asked all the time (my answer is always: I don't know!)

But for those interested, here is an article from the Business Spectator: House prices fall 0.7% in June, flat in quarter (ht Mr Slippery)

After 17 consecutive months of solid growth, dwelling values across Australia’s capital cities recorded their first monthly decline of 0.7 per cent in June, according to the RP Data-Rismark Hedonic Home Value Index.

This was the largest monthly fall in home values since April 2008. "The June outcome follows on from a clear trend in the decline in monthly seasonally-adjusted growth rates in Australia’s capital cities," RP Data said.
...
"This represents a striking deceleration in the quarterly rate of increase in home values," RP Data said