by Calculated Risk on 4/02/2010 12:53:00 PM

In the previous post I noted that according to the BLS there are a record 6.55 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks (and still want a job). This is a record 4.3% of the civilian workforce.

Here are two graphs that show the level of long term unemployed by duration.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

The first graph shows the number of unemployed in four categories as provided by the BLS: less than 5 week, 6 to 14 weeks, 15 to 26 weeks, and 27 weeks or more.

Note: The BLS reports 15+ weeks, so the 15 to 26 weeks number was calculated.

The second graph shows the same information as a percent of the civilian labor force.

It appears there was more turnover in the '70s and '80s, since the 'less than 5 weeks' category was much higher as a percent of the civilian labor force than in recent years. This changed in the early '90s - perhaps as a result of more careful hiring practices or changes in demographics or maybe other reasons - but if the level of normal turnover was the same as in the '80s, the current unemployment rate would probably be the highest since WWII.

What really makes the current period stand out is the number of people (and percent) that have been unemployed for 27 weeks or more. In the early '80s, the 27 weeks or more unemployed peaked at 2.9 million or 2.6% of the civilian labor force.

In March 2010, there were 6.55 million people unemployed for 27 weeks or more, or 4.3% of the labor force. This is significantly higher than during other periods.

Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart made a couple of key points on Wednesday:

There are two key types of match inefficiency. One is geographic mismatch. In 2008, the percentage of individuals living in a county or state different than the previous year was the lowest recorded in more than 50 years of data. People may be reluctant to relocate for a new job if the value of their house has declined. In addition, many who would like to move are under water in their mortgage or can't sell their homes.

The second inefficiency is skills mismatch. In simple terms, the skills people have don't match the jobs available. Coming out of this recession there may be a more or less permanent change in the composition of jobs.

Both of these mismatches are contributing to the long term unemployment problem - and the housing bubble was a direct cause of both. Usually people can move freely in the U.S. to pursue employment (geographic mobility), but many people are tied to an anchor (their home). And many workers went into the construction trades and acquired skills that are not easily transferable. Both of these issues make the long term unemployment problem a difficult challenge.

by Calculated Risk on 4/02/2010 10:12:00 AM

Here are a few more graphs based on the employment report ...

Employment-Population Ratio

The Employment-Population ratio ticked up slightly to 58.6% in March, after plunging since the start of the recession. This is about the same level as in 1983.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the employment-population ratio; this is the ratio of employed Americans to the adult population.

Note: the graph doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

The general upward trend from the early '60s was mostly due to women entering the workforce.

The Labor Force Participation Rate increased slightly to 64.9% (the percentage of the working age population in the labor force). This is at the level of the early 80s. Many of these people will return to the labor force when the employment picture improves - and that will keep the unemployment rate elevated unless net hiring picks up dramatically.

Part Time for Economic Reasons

From the BLS report:

The number of persons working part time for economic reasons (sometimes re-
ferred to as involuntary part-time workers) increased to 9.1 million in March.
These individuals were working part time because their hours had been cut back
or because they were unable to find a full-time job.

The number of workers only able to find part time jobs (or have had their hours cut for economic reasons) increased sharply to 9.1 million.

The all time record of 9.2 million was set in October. This suggests the increase last month was not weather related - and is not a good sign.

Unemployed over 26 Weeks

The blue line is the number of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more. The red line is the same data as a percent of the civilian workforce.

According to the BLS, there are a record 6.55 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks (and still want a job). This is a record 4.3% of the civilian workforce. (note: records started in 1948)

The number of long term unemployed is one of the key stories of this recession.

Although the headline number of 162,000 payroll jobs was a positive (this is 114,000 after adjusting for Census 2010 hires), the underlying details were mixed. The positives: the unemployment rate was steady, the employment-population ratio ticked up slightly (after plunging sharply), and average hours increased (might have been impacted by the snow in February).

But a near record number of part time workers (for economic reasons), a record number of unemployed for more than 26 weeks, and a decline in average hourly wages are all negatives.

I'll have even more later ...

Earlier employment post today:

March Employment Report: 162K Jobs Added, 9.7% Unemployment Rate for graphs of unemployment rate and a comparison to previous recessions.

Replay of a Q&A with BLS experts is here.

by Calculated Risk on 4/02/2010 09:18:00 AM

Note: See March Employment Report: 162K Jobs Added, 9.7% Unemployment Rate for graphs. I'll post more graphs after the chat.

The BLS will host a live chat starting at 9:30 AM ET. You can follow the chat below (and ask questions).

After the discussion, the chat will be available for replay.

by Calculated Risk on 4/02/2010 08:43:00 AM

From the BLS:

Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 162,000 in March, and the unemployment rate held at 9.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the unemployment rate and the year over year change in employment vs. recessions.

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000 in March. The economy has lost 2.3 million jobs over the last year, and 8.2 million jobs since the beginning of the current employment recession.

The unemployment rate was steady at 9.7 percent.

The second graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms (as opposed to the number of jobs lost).

For the current recession, employment peaked in December 2007, and this recession is by far the worst recession since WWII in percentage terms, and 2nd worst in terms of the unemployment rate (only early '80s recession with a peak of 10.8 percent was worse).

Census 2010 hiring was 48,000 (NSA) in March.

This was about at expectations given the level of Census 2010 hiring and some bounce back from the snow storms in February. I'll have much more soon ...

Note: I'll post a live chat with the BLS (starts at 9:30 AM ET), and more graphs around 10:30 AM ET.

by Calculated Risk on 4/01/2010 11:54:00 PM

From John Collins Rudolf at the NY Times: Moves to Garnish Pay Rise as More Debtors Fall Behind (ht Ann)

One of the worst economic downturns of modern history has produced a big increase in the number of delinquent borrowers, and creditors are suing them by the millions.
...
Bankruptcy can clear away most debts. Yet sweeping changes to federal law in 2005 — pushed by the banking lobby — complicated that process and more than doubled the average cost of filing, to more than $2,000. Many low-income debtors must save for months before they can afford to go broke.

I'm surprised there isn't a move to rework the Orwellian-named "Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act of 2005". We definitely need a consumer financial protection agency. Look at this example from the Times story:

Ruth M. Owens, a disabled Cleveland woman, was sued by Discover Bank in 2004 for an unpaid credit card. Ms. Owens offered a defense, sending a handwritten note to the court.

“After paying my monthly utilities, there is no money left except a little food money and sometimes it isn’t enough,” she wrote.

Robert Triozzi, a judge at the time, heard the case. He found that over a period of several years, Ms. Owens had paid nearly $3,500 on an original balance of $1,900. But Discover was suing her for $5,564, mostly for late fees, compound interest, penalties and other charges. He called Discover’s actions “unconscionable” and threw the case out.

by Calculated Risk on 4/01/2010 10:18:00 PM

From Vikas Bajaj at the NY Times: Coming Visit May Signal Easing by China on Currency

[T]he announcement by Chinese authorities on Thursday that President Hu Jintao will be visiting Washington in two weeks is being seen as the beginning of a possible easing of the friction over the renminbi.

China experts said it was unlikely that China would have agreed to the visit unless there was at least an informal assurance by the Treasury Department that it would not be named a currency manipulator either on or around April 15 — the deadline for the Obama administration to submit one of its twice-a-year reports on foreign exchange to Congress.

At the same time, economists say the visit, and other Chinese moves, suggest China is finally willing to let the renminbi increase in value.

There is much more in the article, but I think it is unlikely that China will be named a currency manipulator on April 15th - and likely that China will allow their currency to appreciate.

by Calculated Risk on 4/01/2010 06:14:00 PM

Just to complete the countdown, the NY Fed purchased an additional net $6.074 billion in MBS for the week ending March 31st. That puts the total purchases at $1.25 trillion ... and completes the program right on schedule.

The Fed's balance sheet today shows $1.074 trillion in MBS. As mentioned before, the difference is the NY Fed announces the purchases when they contract to buy; the Federal Reserve places the MBS on the balance sheet when the contract settles. The Fed's balance sheet will probably expand by $150+ billion over the next two months as the remaining contracts settle.

The spread between mortgage rates and treasuries widened slightly, from Bloomberg: Mortgage-Bond Yields That Guide Loan Rates Rise to 3-Month High.

Fannie Mae’s current-coupon 30-year fixed-rate mortgage bonds climbed 0.05 percentage point to 4.56 percent as of 5 p.m. in New York, the highest since Dec. 28, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
...
The difference between yields on Washington-based Fannie Mae’s securities and 10-year Treasuries widened for a third day, rising about 0.01 percentage point to 0.69 percentage point, Bloomberg data show.

That spread reached 0.59 percentage point on March 10, the lowest since at least 1984, as the Fed’s purchases of agency mortgage bonds approached their scheduled conclusion. The gap averaged 1.32 percentage points from 2000 through 2009.

Oh boy, a 10 bps widening from the low! I expect the spread to widen slowly and push up mortgage rates a little (at least the spread between the Ten Year and the 30 Year fixed rate).

On mortgage rates, Freddie Mac reported today:

Freddie Mac (NYSE:FRE) today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®) in which the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 5.08 percent with an average 0.7 point for the week ending April 1, 2010, up from last week when it averaged 4.99 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 4.78 percent.

by Calculated Risk on 4/01/2010 04:00:00 PM

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the historical light vehicle sales (seasonally adjusted annual rate) from the BEA (blue) and an estimate for March (red, light vehicle sales of 11.78 million SAAR from AutoData Corp).

This is a 13.9% increase from the February sales rate.

The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967.

Excluding August '09 (Cash-for-clunkers), this is the highest level since September 2008. The current level of sales are very low, and are at about the low point for the '90/'91 recession (even with a larger population now).

Most forecasts were for sales over 12 million (SAAR), so the sales rate is a little disappointing given all the incentive programs in March.

by Calculated Risk on 4/01/2010 02:25:00 PM

From HotelNewsNow.com: STR: Boston leads weekly numbers

Overall, the U.S. industry’s occupancy ended the week with a 5.9-percent increase to 59.9 percent, average daily rate dropped 1.6 percent to US$98.29, and RevPAR was up 4.2 percent to US$58.89.

The following graph shows the occupancy rate by week since 2000, and the rolling 52 week average occupancy rate.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

Note: the scale doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

The graph shows the distinct seasonal pattern for the occupancy rate; higher in the summer because of leisure/vacation travel, and lower on certain holidays.

The average occupancy rate for this week is close to 65% (during the 2004 to 2007 period), so the current 59.9% is still well below normal.

The lower than normal occupancy rate is still pushing down room rates (on a YoY basis) although revenue per available room (RevPAR) increased for the fourth straight week.

Data Source: Smith Travel Research, Courtesy of HotelNewsNow.com

by Calculated Risk on 4/01/2010 11:17:00 AM

From MarketWatch: General Motors U.S. March sales rise 20.6%

This is based on a very easy comparison: in March 2009 U.S. light vehicle sales fell 35% to 9.69 million (SAAR) from 14.9 million (SAAR) in March 2008. The sharp decline last year was due to the financial crisis, the recession, and reports of the then impending bankruptcy of GM and Chrysler (Chrysler filed for bankruptcy at the end of April, 2009, GM filed for bankruptcy on June 1, 2009).

I'll add reports from the other major auto companies as updates to this post.

UDDATE 1: From MarketWatch: Ford March U.S. sales rise 39.8% to 183,783 units

UPDATE 2: From MarketWatch: Chrysler U.S. March sales fall 8.3% to 92,623

UPDATE 3: From MarketWatch: Toyota March U.S. sales grow by nearly 41%

NOTE: Once all the reports are released, I'll post a graph of the estimated total March sales (SAAR: seasonally adjusted annual rate) - usually around 4 PM ET. Most estimates are for an increase to just over 12 million SAAR in March, from the 10.343 million SAAR in February.