by Calculated Risk on 5/16/2009 02:14:00 PM

From the Boston Globe: Sovereign Bancorp reports $817.3m loss

Sovereign Bancorp ... lost $817.3 million in the quarter, compared with a net income of $100.1 million in the same period a year ago. It also reported that it set aside $505 million for bad loans, up from $135 million a year ago. The Philadelphia-based holding company owns Sovereign Bank and was acquired in January by Spain's Banco Santander.

The bank's total allowance for loan losses was $1.3 billion at the end of the quarter. Sovereign also has a large exposure to soured investments: nearly $1 billion in unrealized losses on investment securities - losses it could have to write down as permanent in the future.

It had total assets of $78.1 billion ...

Soverign Bancorp wasn't one of the 19 stress test banks (assets are less than $100 billion) and they are now owned by Banco Santander. But this is an example of the next tier of banks - and of more losses coming.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This pie chart shows the breakdown of loans by category that are held for investment ($53.7 billion) from Sovereign Bancorp's 10-Q SEC filing.

If we use the indicative loss rates from the Federal Reserve (more adverse scenario) for each loan category, this would suggest $4.0 to $5.3 billion in losses over the next two years. Note: this doesn't include losses on investment securities.

As an example, the two year indicative loss rate for CRE, nonfarm, non-residential are 7% to 9%. Sovereign Bancorp shows $10.4 billion in assets in this category (excluding C&D), and that suggests two years indicative losses of $730 to $940 million. Soverign might do better or worse depending on their portfolio, but this suggests there are more losses to come.

by Calculated Risk on 5/16/2009 09:06:00 AM

From The Times: Home repossessions jump as downturn continues to put pressure on borrowers

Home repossessions jumped by more than 50 per cent between January and March as the recession continued to take a heavy toll of borrowers.
...
About 12,800 homeowners lost their properties because they could not keep up with repayments in the first three months of the year, up from 8,500 in the same period last year, [Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML)] figures show.
...
[I]ncreasing numbers of homeowners are struggling with the burden of their mortgage. About 265,000 borrowers had missed three or more monthly payments between January and March, up from 135,800 in the first quarter of last year, the CML said.
...
“We fear a second, more devastating tidal wave of repossessions is coming as unemployment continues to rise, the recession continues and at some point interest rates begin to climb again.” [Shelter, the housing charity, said]

The UK is working through a rule change that required lenders "to prove that they have examined all alternatives to keep borrowers in their homes before seeking a court order" - and that has probably skewed the data. But just like in the U.S., it appears there is a second wave of foreclosures coming.

by Calculated Risk on 5/16/2009 12:35:00 AM

From CNBC: Economic Recovery Still Months Away: Roubini, Rogoff

"People talk about a bottom of the recession in June, but I see it more like six to nine months from now," Roubini said. "The green shoots everyone talks about are more like yellow weeds to me."
...
"I see slow growth for the next couple of years," Roubini said, "even if there is a recovery. Large budget deficits will push out growth."
...
"I think there will be a bounce in the second half of the year from the massive stimulus package," [Kenneth Rogoff, professor at Harvard University's Department of Economics] said. "But I think the longer run trend is very slow, so we're vulnerable to dipping down again sometime in the next couple of years, like Japan."

by Calculated Risk on 5/15/2009 07:11:00 PM

Home Depot (Tuesday) and Lowes (Monday) announce results next week, and this might be something to watch!

Residential investment, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), includes new single family structures, multifamily structures, home improvement, broker's commissions, and a few minor categories.

In Q4 - for the first time - investment in home improvements exceeded investment in new single family structures. This continued into Q1 2009.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the various components of RI as a percent of GDP for the last 50 years. The most important components are investment in single family structures followed by home improvement.

Investment in home improvement was at a $162.3 billion Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) in Q1, significantly above investment in single family structures of $113.7 billion (SAAR).

Let's take a closer look at these two key components of RI:

As everyone knows, investment in single family structures has fallen off a cliff. This is the component of RI that gets all the media attention - although usually from stories about single family starts and new home sales.

Currently investment in single family structures is at 0.8% of GDP, significantly below the average of the last 50 years of 2.35% - and also below the previous record low in 1982 of 1.20%.

But what about home improvement?

The third graph shows home improvement investment as a percent of GDP.

Home improvement is at 1.15% of GDP, off the high of 1.30% in Q4 2005 - but still above the average of the last 50 years of 1.07%.

This would seem to suggest there remains significant downside risk to home improvement spending.

NOTE: Home improvement is a rough estimate by the BEA - and could be lower. Also, there could be changes in spending patterns leading to a higher percentage of GDP on home improvement.

by Calculated Risk on 5/15/2009 03:55:00 PM

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph is from Doug Short of dshort.com (financial planner): "Four Bad Bears".

Note that the Great Depression crash is based on the DOW; the three others are for the S&P 500.

And while we wait for the FDIC on BFF ...

From the NY Times: G.M. Notifying 1,100 Dealers That They Will Be Dropped

General Motors is telling about 1,100 dealers on Friday that they will lose their franchises by late next year.
...
“They’re dealerships that are in most cases hurting, losing money and in danger of going out of business anyway,” Mark LaNeve, G.M.’s vice president for sales, service and marketing, said in a conference call. “It’s a move that people could argue should have been taken years ago ...”

Why didn't they drop these dealerships earlier? Another example of weak management.

And from CNBC: Goldman, JPMorgan May Be First to Repay TARP

Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase may receive government permission as early as next week to pay back the billions in TARP money they received last fall, sources close to both banks told CNBC.

These are not the first banks to repay TARP funds (several smaller banks have already paid the money back). Goldman received $10 billion in TARP funds, and JPMorgan received $25 billion.

by Calculated Risk on 5/15/2009 03:03:00 PM

From CNBC: Credit Card Defaults Reach Record Highs in April

U.S. credit card defaults rose in April to record highs, with Citigroup and Wells Fargo posting double digit loss rates ...

	April	March
Citigroup	10.21%	9.66%
Wells Fargo	10.03%	9.68%
JPMorgan Chase	8.07%	7.13%
Discover Financial Services	8.26%	7.39%

And the beat goes on ...

by Calculated Risk on 5/15/2009 02:00:00 PM

Note: this is not seasonally adjusted.

Sometimes port traffic gives us an early hint of changes in the trade deficit. The following graph shows the loaded inbound and outbound traffic at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or 20-foot-long cargo container). Although containers tell us nothing about value, container traffic does give us an idea of the volume of goods being exported and imported.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

Inbound traffic was 21.5% below April 2008.

Outbound traffic was 18.3% below April 2008.

There has been some slight recovery in exports the last two months (the year-over-year comparison was off 30% from December through February). But this is the 2nd worst YoY comparison for imports - only February was worse, and that might have been related to the Chinese New Year. So imports from Asia appear especially weak.

This suggests a little more improvement in the trade balance with Asia in the April trade report. Of course the overall trade deficit will probably be worse because of rising oil prices.

by Calculated Risk on 5/15/2009 12:33:00 PM

Click on puzzle for larger image in new window.

I've linked to a few pieces of the puzzle below.

But this adds up to more supply (in the mid-to-high end) because of rising foreclosures - and limited demand because sellers at the low end are mostly banks or short sales (so there are no move up buyers), and tight financing.

To me, this suggests prices will fall much further in many mid-to-high end areas.

Surging prime delinquencies.

See: OCC: More Seriously Delinquent Prime Loans than Subprime

and Fannie, Freddie Report Surge in Prime Delinquencies

and S&P: Delinquencies Surge for HELOCs and Jumbo Prime Loans

Option ARM Loan Recasts are coming.

See: Loan Reset / Recast Schedule

Limited Jumbo Financing

See: More Jumbo Financing Coming

Few Move up buyers

See: Home Sales: One and Done

And even more shadow supply, see: High Percentage of Homeowners Waiting for a Market Turnaround

by Calculated Risk on 5/15/2009 11:51:00 AM

2nd Update: From FDIC: FDIC Statement Clarifying Bloomberg Article

Statement from the FDIC Office of Public Affairs, "The Bloomberg story referencing Chairman Bair's discussion of management and board changes is misleading and does not provide the proper context of her comments. Chairman Bair said that management changes could happen based on the capital plans that an institution must submit to the government. She did not refer to CEOs specifically and the comment was in the context of capital plans submitted by the institutions. Chairman Bair also did not suggest the federal government will remove the bank CEOs."

Transcript of the exchange from Bloomberg follows:

MR. HUNT: But in the same situation, or similar situation, the government already replaced CEOs at Fannie and Freddie and General Motors -

MS. BAIR: Yes, that's right.

MR. HUNT: And some people say, well, why is the head of Bank of America still there? Or why are some of these other banks' CEO's still there?

MS. BAIR: Right, well, obviously I don't comment on open and operating institutions. I think the review needs to go with both the management and the boards as well, absolutely. And management needs to be evaluated and is this the right skill set, have they been doing a good job, are there people who can do a better job, those kinds of questions.

MR. HUNT: Do you think some will be replaced in the next couple of months without getting into the particulars?

MS. BAIR: Yeah, I think there will be an evaluation process. We're requesting it as part of the capital plan and yes.

Update: From Bloomberg: Bair Says Some Bank Chiefs Will Be Replaced in Next Few Months

From FDIC's Sheila Bair on Political Capital with Al Hunt this weekend (Bloomberg TV):

Some Bank CEOs will be replaced in next few months

'No one accountable' for entire U.S. banking system

U.S. needs to fill 'hole' on oversight of holding companies

U.S. to have management 'evaluation' process at banks

'Need is still there' to remove toxic assets from banks

Liquidity crisis is over

by Calculated Risk on 5/15/2009 09:15:00 AM

The Federal Reserve reported:

Industrial production decreased 0.5 percent in April after having fallen 1.7 percent in March. Production in manufacturing declined 0.3 percent in April and was 16.0 percent below its recent peak in December 2007. The decreases in manufacturing in April remained broadly based across industries. Outside of manufacturing, the output of mines fell 3.2 percent, as oil and gas field drilling and support activities continued to drop. The output of utilities moved up 0.4 percent. At 97.1 percent of its 2002 average, industrial output in April was 12.5 percent below its year-earlier level. The capacity utilization rate for total industry fell further in April, to 69.1 percent, a low over the history of this series, which begins in 1967.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is at another record low (the series starts in 1967).

In addition to the weakness in industrial production, there is little reason for investment in new production facilities until capacity utilization recovers.