by Calculated Risk on 12/14/2025 06:15:00 PM

Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of December 14, 2025

Monday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for December. The consensus is for a reading of 10.8, down from 18.7.

• 10:00 AM, The December NAHB homebuilder survey.  The consensus is for a reading of 39, up from 38 the previous month. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 and DOW futures are little changed (fair value).

Oil prices were down over the last week with WTI futures at $57.44 per barrel and Brent at $61.12 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $71, and Brent was at $74 - so WTI oil prices are down about 20% year-over-year.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $2.87 per gallon. A year ago, prices were at $2.98 per gallon, so gasoline prices are down $0.11 year-over-year.

by Calculated Risk on 12/14/2025 10:23:00 AM

What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory, new listings and median prices. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For November, Realtor.com reported active inventory was up 12.6% YoY, but still down 11.7% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. 

Here is their weekly report: Weekly Housing Trends: U.S. Market Update (Week Ending Dec. 6, 2025)

• Active inventory climbed 12.6% year over year

Inventory growth continues to be driven more by homes lingering on the market than by new listings. With roughly 1.01 million homes for sale last week, the 32nd consecutive week above the million-mark, buyers have a wider selection, while sellers face mounting competition. Importantly, this week bucked the recent trend of slowing inventory growth, and the annual increase in homes for sale was larger than the previous week.

• New listings—a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale—fell by 7.4% year over year

New listings fell again this week compared to the same week in 2024, accelerating from the previous week’s decline. New listings are up 5.5% year to date and have shown modest positive growth for most of the fall, suggesting that the overall trend toward more new listings coming on the market could be shifting this winter.

• The median listing price fell 1.2% year over year

The median list price dropped compared to the same week one year ago, though the retreat has moderated closer to year-long trends. Adjusting for home size, the price per square foot fell 1.1% year over year, dropping for the 14th consecutive week. The price per square foot grew steadily for almost two years, but the combination of slower sales, rising inventory, and increased price cuts is now clearly reflected in lower listing values, indicating that the market is rebalancing toward buyers.

by Calculated Risk on 12/13/2025 02:11:00 PM

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:

Click on graph for larger image.

• 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in November

• Mortgage Rates: The New Normal

• Lawler: More on the “Neutral” Interest Rate (R*)

• December ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices "Firmed" in November, Up 0.8% Year-over-year

• 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in November

This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.

by Calculated Risk on 12/13/2025 08:11:00 AM

Special Note: There is still uncertainty on when some economic reports will be released.

The key economic reports this week are the November Employment report, October Retail Sales, November CPI, and November Existing Home Sales.

For manufacturing, the December New York, Philly and Kansas City Fed surveys will be released this week.


----- Monday, December 15th -----
8:30 AM: The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for December. The consensus is for a reading of 10.8, down from 18.7.

10:00 AM: The December NAHB homebuilder survey.  The consensus is for a reading of 39, up from 38 the previous month. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.

----- Tuesday, December 16th -----
8:30 AM: Employment Report for November.   The consensus is for 50,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.4%.

There were 119,000 jobs added in September, and the unemployment rate was at 4.4%.

This graph shows the jobs added per month since January 2021.

8:30 AM ET: Retail sales for October will be released.  The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in retail sales.

This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).

----- Wednesday, December 17th -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

During the day: The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for November (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).

----- Thursday, December 18th -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  There were 236,000 initial claims last week.

8:30 AM ET, The Consumer Price Index for November from the BLS.  The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in CPI, and a 0.2% increase in core CPI.  The consensus is for CPI to be up 3.1% year-over-year and core CPI to be up 3.1% YoY.

8:30 AM: the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for December. The consensus is for a reading of 2.2, up from -1.7.

11:00 AM: the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey for December.

----- Friday, December 19th -----
10:00 AM: Existing Home Sales for November from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 4.15 million SAAR, up from 4.10 million.

The graph shows existing home sales from 1994 through the report last month.

10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Final for December).

by Calculated Risk on 12/12/2025 04:21:00 PM

A few brief excerpts from a Goldman Sachs research note on shelter inflation:

[R]apid multifamily supply growth amid a cooler labor market, slower immigration, and an already rising vacancy rate is likely to keep new lease rent growth subdued in 2026. ... We forecast that PCE housing inflation will slow to 0.22% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year in December 2025 and 0.16% month-over-month and 2.1% year-over-year in December 2026.

Under our forecast, the contribution from shelter inflation to year-over-year core PCE inflation shrinks from 0.7pp in the latest report to 0.6pp by December 2025 and 0.4pp by December 2026, versus 0.6pp on average in 2018-2019.

Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, both through September 2025.

Housing (PCE) was up 3.7% YoY in September, down from 3.9% in August and down from the cycle peak of 8.3% in April 2023.

Economists at Goldman Sachs expect this will decline to 2.1% YoY by December 2026.  This is a key reason why the FOMC expects inflation to decline in 2026 (along with less impact on inflation from tariffs).

by Calculated Risk on 12/12/2025 11:14:00 AM

Hotel occupancy was weak over the summer months, due to less international tourism.  The fall months are mostly domestic travel and occupancy is still under pressure! 

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 6 December

he U.S. hotel industry reported negative year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 6 December. ...

30 November through 6 December 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024):

• Occupancy: 57.2% (-3.2%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$160.11 (-0.5%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$91.57 (-3.7%)
emphasis added

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2024.  Dashed black is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. 

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking well behind last year but is close to the median rate for the period 2000 through 2024 (Blue).

Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

The 4-week average will decrease seasonally until early next year.

On a year-to-date basis, the only worse years for occupancy over the last 25 years were pandemic or recession years.

by Calculated Risk on 12/12/2025 08:05:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in November

A brief excerpt:

Tracking local data gives an early look at what happened the previous month and also reveals regional differences in both sales and inventory.

November sales will be mostly for contracts signed in September and October, and mortgage rates averaged 6.35% in September and 6.25% in October (lower than for closed sales in October).

In November, sales in these markets were down 5.7% YoY. Last month, in October, these same markets were up 2.8% year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

Important: There was one fewer working days in November 2025 (18) as in November 2024 (19). So, the year-over-year change in the headline SA data will be more than the change in NSA data (there are other seasonal factors).
...
This was just several more early reporting markets. Many more local markets to come!

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 12/11/2025 08:25:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Friday:
• No major economic releases scheduled.

by Calculated Risk on 12/11/2025 04:40:00 PM

From Cotality U.S. home equity dips further this fall

Cotality ... today released the Homeowner Equity Report (HER) for the third quarter of 2025. The report reveals a mixed picture of homeowner equity gains across the United States.

Borrower equity decreased year over year, declining by $373.8 billion or 2.1%. That decline translates to an overall net equity to $17.1 trillion for homes with a mortgage. Homeowner equity peaked at close to $17.7 trillion in the second quarter of 2024 and has since oscillated between $17 trillion and $17.6 trillion.

"As the pace of home price growth slows and markets recalibrate from pandemic peaks, we’re seeing a clear shift in equity trends,” said Cotality Chief Economist Dr. Selma Hepp. “Negative equity is on the rise, driven in part by affordability challenges that have led many first-time and lower-income buyers to over-leverage through piggyback loans or minimal down payments. While overall home equity remains elevated, recent purchasers with smaller down payments may now face negative equity.”
...
While the share of homeowners in negative equity reduced in the second quarter of this year, it ticked up again in the third quarter. In the current quarter, 2.2% of homeowners have negative equity or 1.2 million properties. Another way to think about it is that there’s been a 21% year-over-year rise in the number of homeowners in negative equity with 216,000 more homes falling into the category in the third quarter, a trend that has been gaining steam and signals possible market difficulties ahead.

Compared to the second quarter, there has been a 6.7% increase in the number of mortgaged residential properties sitting in negative equity. This slide in equity tracks with market cycles as the spring homebuying season faded into the slower fall market, during which period there’s a more consistent weakness in home price gains across markets.

This graph compares the distribution of equity (and negative equity) in Q3 vs. Q2. 

About 1.2 million properties are in negative equity (owe more than the property is worth), but this is a fairly small percentage historically.

Most homeowners have substantial equity in their homes.

by Calculated Risk on 12/11/2025 01:12:00 PM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Mortgage Rates: The New Normal

A brief excerpt:

In June 2023, I wrote: Could 6% to 7% 30-Year Mortgage Rates be the "New Normal"?

At that time, the Fed Funds rate was set at 5 to 5-1/4 percent and the Ten Year Treasury was yielding 3-3/4%. I noted in 2023: “the 10-year yield would likely increase even as the Fed lowers the Fed Funds rate.”

And that is what happened. The 10-year is yielding 4-1/4% this morning. This is a key point. Just because the FOMC is cutting rates, doesn’t necessarily mean long rates will follow.

Note: For a discussion of the R* and the neutral rate, see housing economist Tom Lawler's post on Tuesday.

[I]f, as expected, the FOMC decides to cut its federal funds rate target by 25 bp tomorrow, then the resulting level of the federal funds rate will be very close to the neutral nominal policy rate.

The following graph is from Mortgage News Daily and shows the 30-year mortgage rate since 2000. Rates were in the 5.5% to 6.5% range prior to the housing bust and financial crisis. Then rates were in the 3.5% to 5% range for over a decade prior to the pandemic. Currently rates are at 6.30% for 30-year mortgage rates.

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 12/11/2025 10:00:00 AM

The Census Bureau released the Residential Vacancies and Homeownership report for Q3 2025 today.

The results of this survey were significantly distorted by the pandemic in 2020.

This report is frequently mentioned by analysts and the media to track household formation, the homeownership rate, and the homeowner and rental vacancy rates.  However, there are serious questions about the accuracy of this survey.

This survey might show the trend, but I wouldn't rely on the absolute numbers. Analysts probably shouldn't use the HVS to estimate the excess vacant supply or household formation, or rely on the homeownership rate, except as a guide to the trend.

National vacancy rates in the third quarter 2025 were 7.1 percent for rental housing and 1.2 percent for homeowner housing. The rental vacancy rate was not statistically different from the rate in the third quarter 2024 (6.9 percent) and not statistically different from the rate in the second quarter 2025 (7.0 percent).

The homeowner vacancy rate of 1.2 percent was higher than the rate in the third quarter 2024 (1.0 percent) and higher than the rate in the second quarter 2025 (1.1 percent).

The homeownership rate of 65.3 percent was not statistically different from the rate in the third quarter 2024 (65.6 percent) and not statistically different than the rate in the second quarter 2025 (65.0 percent).
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The Red dots are the decennial Census homeownership rates for April 1st, 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020. 

The HVS homeownership rate was increased to 65.3% in Q3, from 65.0% in Q2.  

The results in Q2 and Q3 2020 were distorted by the pandemic and should be ignored.

The HVS homeowner vacancy increased to 1.2% in Q3 from 1.1% in Q2.

The homeowner vacancy rate declined sharply during the pandemic and includes homes that are vacant and for sale (so this mirrors the increasing levels of existing home inventory).

Once again - this probably shows the general trend, but I wouldn't rely on the absolute numbers.

The rental vacancy rate increased to 7.1% in Q3 from 7.0% in Q2.  This is up from the low of 5.6% in 2021 and 2022.

The quarterly HVS is the timeliest survey on households, but there are many questions about the accuracy of this survey.

by Calculated Risk on 12/11/2025 08:43:00 AM

The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported:

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $52.8 billion in September, down $6.4 billion from $59.3 billion in August, revised.

September exports were $289.3 billion, $8.4 billion more than August exports. September imports were $342.1 billion, $1.9 billion more than August imports.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

Exports and imports increased in September. 

Exports were up 6% year-over-year; imports were down 4% year-over-year.

Imports increased sharply earlier this year as importers rushed to beat tariffs.  

The second graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum.

The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.

Note that net, exports of petroleum products are positive and have been increasing.

The trade deficit with China decreased to $15.0 billion from $31.8 billion a year ago.

by Calculated Risk on 12/11/2025 08:30:00 AM

The DOL reported:

In the week ending December 6, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 236,000, an increase of 44,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 191,000 to 192,000. The 4-week moving average was 216,750, an increase of 2,000 from the previous week's unrevised average of 214,750.
emphasis added

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 216,750.

by Calculated Risk on 12/10/2025 07:26:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  There were 191,000 initial claims last week.

• Also at 8:30 AM, Trade Balance report for September from the Census Bureau. The consensus is the trade deficit to be $65.5 billion.  The U.S. trade deficit was at $59.6 billion in August.

• At 10:00 AM, the Q3 2025 Housing Vacancies and Homeownership from the Census Bureau.

• Also at 10:00 AM, State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for September 2025

by Calculated Risk on 12/10/2025 02:11:00 PM

Statement here.

Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET.

Here are the projections.  

The BEA's estimate for first half 2025 GDP showed real growth at 1.6% annualized. Most estimates for Q3 GDP are around 3.5%. That would put the real growth for the first three quarters at 2.2% annualized - well above the top end of the September projections. The FOMC revised up Q4 2025 and Q4 2026 GDP growth.

GDP projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Change in Real GDP1
Projection Date	2025	2026	2027	2028
Dec 2025	1.6 to 1.8	2.1 to 2.5	1.9 to 2.3	1.8 to 2.1
Sept 2025	1.4 to 1.7	1.7 to 2.1	1.8 to 2.0	1.7 to 2.0

¹ Projections of change in real GDP and inflation are from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated.

The unemployment rate was at 4.4% in September. There was no data for October due to the government shutdown, and the November report will be released on December 16th - so the FOMC was flying blind today on the unemployment rate. However, they increased the 2026 projection into the employment recession range. Note: An unemployment rate of 4.6% over the next few months might be recessionary.

Unemployment projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Unemployment Rate2
Projection Date	2025	2026	2027	2028
Dec 2025	4.5 to 4.6	4.3 to 4.4	4.2 to 4.3	4.0 to 4.3
Sept 2025	4.4 to 4.5	4.4 to 4.5	4.2 to 4.4	4.0 to 4.3

² Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated.

As of September 2025, PCE inflation increased 2.8 percent year-over-year (YoY), up from 2.7 percent YoY in August.  Projections for PCE inflation were lowered slightly.

Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, PCE Inflation1
Projection Date	2025	2026	2027	2028
Dec 2025	2.8 to 2.9	2.3-2.5	2.0 to 2.2	2.0
Sept 2025	2.9 to 3.0	2.4-2.7	2.0 to 2.2	2.0

PCE core inflation increased 2.8 percent YoY in September, down from 2.9 percent in August.   Projections for 2025 core PCE inflation were decreased.

Core Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Core Inflation1
Projection Date	2025	2026	2027	2028
Dec 2025	2.9 to 3.0	2.4-2.6	2.0 to 2.2	2.0
Sept 2025	3.0 to 3.2	2.5-2.7	2.0 to 2.2	2.0

by Calculated Risk on 12/10/2025 02:00:00 PM

Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET.

FOMC Statement:

Available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace. Job gains have slowed this year, and the unemployment rate has edged up through September. More recent indicators are consistent with these developments. Inflation has moved up since earlier in the year and remains somewhat elevated.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate and judges that downside risks to employment rose in recent months.

In support of its goals and in light of the shift in the balance of risks, the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 3-1/2 to 3‑3/4 percent. In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee is strongly committed to supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

The Committee judges that reserve balances have declined to ample levels and will initiate purchases of shorter-term Treasury securities as needed to maintain an ample supply of reserves on an ongoing basis.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Susan M. Collins; Lisa D. Cook; Philip N. Jefferson; Alberto G. Musalem; and Christopher J. Waller. Voting against this action were Stephen I. Miran, who preferred to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/2 percentage point at this meeting; and Austan D. Goolsbee and Jeffrey R. Schmid, who preferred no change to the target range for the federal funds rate at this meeting.
emphasis added

by Calculated Risk on 12/10/2025 07:00:00 AM

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications increased 4.8 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending December 5, 2025. Last week’s results included an adjustment for the Thanksgiving holiday.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 4.8 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 49 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 14 percent from the previous week and was 88 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 32 percent compared with the previous week and was 19 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

“Compared to the prior week’s data, which included an adjustment for the Thanksgiving holiday, mortgage application activity increased last week, driven by an uptick in refinance applications,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Conventional refinance applications were up almost 8 percent and government refinances were up 24 percent as the FHA rate dipped to its lowest level since September 2024. Conventional purchase applications were down for the week, but there was a 5 percent increase in FHA purchase applications as prospective homebuyers continue to seek lower downpayment loans. Overall purchase applications continued to run ahead of 2024’s pace as broader housing inventory and affordability conditions improve gradually.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($806,500 or less) increased to 6.33 percent from 6.32 percent, with points increasing to 0.60 from 0.58 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.

According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 19% year-over-year unadjusted. 

Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).  

Purchase application activity is still depressed, but solidly above the lows of 2023 and above the lowest levels during the housing bust.  

The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

The refinance index increased from the bottom as mortgage rates declined, but is down from the recent peak in September.

by Calculated Risk on 12/09/2025 07:53:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Wednesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• At 2:00 PM, FOMC Meeting Announcement. The Fed is expected to cut rates 25bp at this meeting.

• Also at 2:00 PM, FOMC Forecasts This will include the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) participants' projections of the appropriate target federal funds rate along with the quarterly economic projections.

• At 2:30 PM, Fed Chair Jerome Powell holds a press briefing following the FOMC announcement.

by Calculated Risk on 12/09/2025 02:07:00 PM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: More on the “Neutral” Interest Rate (R*)

A brief excerpt:

From housing economist Tom Lawler:

Executive Summary: Policymakers and financial analysts looking for “models” as a guide for assessing the neutral interest rate are faced with a dilemma: various models produce significantly different results, and it is far from clear which if any model is the “most” accurate. While it is perhaps interesting to note that the average R* estimate from various models available within the Federal Reserve System is currently very close to “market-based” estimates based on TIPS forward rates adjusted for term prema estimates, that may simply be a coincidence.

However, if one takes the approach that the “best guess” estimate of R* is found by looking at the average of various models and the “market’s” assessment of R*, one would come to the conclusion that the current “best guess” estimate of the neutral real rate of interest is very close to 1.5%,

If that is the case, and if, as expected, the FOMC decides to cut its federal funds rate target by 25 bp tomorrow, then the resulting level of the federal funds rate will be very close to the neutral nominal policy rate.

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 12/09/2025 11:57:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in November

A brief excerpt:

Tracking local data gives an early look at what happened the previous month and also reveals regional differences in both sales and inventory.

November sales will be mostly for contracts signed in September and October, and mortgage rates averaged 6.35% in September and 6.25% in October (lower than for closed sales in October).

In November, sales in these early reporting markets were down 10.8% YoY. Last month, in October, these same markets were down 2.3% year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

Important: There was one fewer working days in November 2025 (18) as in November 2024 (19). So, the year-over-year change in the headline SA data will be more than the change in NSA data (there are other seasonal factors).
...
This was just several early reporting markets. Many more local markets to come!

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 12/09/2025 10:00:00 AM

From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary

The number of job openings was unchanged at 7.7 million in October, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, both hires and total separations were little changed at 5.1 million. Within separations, both quits (2.9 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.9 million) were little changed.
emphasis added

The following graph shows job openings (black line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.

This series started in December 2000.

Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. This report is for October; the employment report to be released this coming Tuesday will be for November.

Click on graph for larger image.

Note that hires (dark blue) and total separations (red and light blue columns stacked) are usually pretty close each month. This is a measure of labor market turnover.  When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs.

The spike in layoffs and discharges in March 2020 is labeled, but off the chart to better show the usual data.

Jobs openings increased in October to 7.67 million from 7.66 million in September.

The number of job openings (black) were up 1% year-over-year. 

Quits were down 9% year-over-year. These are voluntary separations. (See light blue columns at bottom of graph for trend for "quits").

by Calculated Risk on 12/08/2025 07:43:00 PM

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Start Week Near 3 Month Highs

Both stocks and bonds lost ground on Monday. This pushed mortgage rates up near their highest levels in just over 3 months (because mortgages are based on bond prices). To put the 3-month highs in perspective, today's rates are right in line with those seen 2 weeks ago. [30 year fixed 6.36%]
emphasis added

Tuesday:
• At 6:00 AM ET, NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for November.

• At 10:00 AM, Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for October from the BLS.

by Calculated Risk on 12/08/2025 02:46:00 PM

From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Decreases 1% in November

The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, decreased 1.1% in November to 276.8 (2000=100) from the downwardly revised October reading of 280.0. Over the month, commercial planning ticked down 0.1% and institutional planning declined by 3.4%. Year-to-date, the DMI is up 36% from the average reading over the same period in 2024.

“The influx of high-value data center work, compounded by inflationary cost pressures, continues to support elevated DMI levels,” stated Sarah Martin, Associate Director of Forecasting at Dodge Construction Network. “Overall, nonresidential construction is expected to strengthen in 2027, led primarily by data center and healthcare projects. Other nonresidential sectors are more likely to face softer demand and heightened macroeconomic risks.”

On the commercial side, activity slowed down for warehouses and hotels, while planning momentum was sustained for data centers, traditional office buildings and retail stores. On the institutional side, education, healthcare, public and recreational planning saw weaker momentum, after strong activity in recent months. Planning for religious buildings, however, continued to accelerate. Year-over-year, the DMI was up 50% when compared to November 2024. The commercial segment was up 57% (+36% when data centers are removed) and the institutional segment was up 37% over the same period.
...
The DMI is a monthly measure based on the three-month moving value of nonresidential building projects going into planning, shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year to 18 months.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the Dodge Momentum Index since 2002. The index was at 276.8 in November, down from 280.0 the previous month.

According to Dodge, this index leads "construction spending for nonresidential buildings a full year to 18 months".  

Commercial construction is typically a lagging economic indicator.

by Calculated Risk on 12/08/2025 10:30:00 AM

Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: December ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices "Firmed" in November, Up 0.8% Year-over-year

Brief excerpt:

Inventory Impacts Prices

• About one-third of markets are seeing annual home price declines, while two-thirds are posting gains

• The Northeast and Midwest dominate growth, with 24 of the top 25 markets for annual price gains located there, while all 36 markets with annual declines are in the South and Westbr /> ...
• New Haven, Conn., leads with prices up +7.3% year-over-year, followed by Syracuse, N. Y. (+7.2%), and Scranton, Pa. (+6.9%). The largest declines are in parts of Florida, Texas, Colorado and California

• Markets are showing signs of rebalancing, with inventory improving in the Northeast and tightening in the South and West

• The 10 hottest markets saw monthly gains below their 12-month averages, hinting at cooler growth ahead, while 27 of 36 markets with annual declines posted adjusted price increases from October to November, signaling modest firming in late 2025
emphasis added

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 12/08/2025 08:11:00 AM

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 2.7% week-over-week.  Inventory usually starts to decline in the fall and then declines sharply during the holiday season.

The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025.  The black line is for 2019.  

Inventory was up 15.3% compared to the same week in 2024 (last week it was up 15.6%), and down 4.1% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 4.3%). 

Inventory started 2025 down 22% compared to 2019.  Inventory has closed most of that gap, but it appears inventory will still be below 2019 levels at the end of 2025.

This second inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.

As of December 5th, inventory was at 795 thousand (7-day average), compared to 817 thousand the prior week.  

Mike Simonsen discusses this data and much more regularly on YouTube

by Calculated Risk on 12/07/2025 06:20:00 PM

Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of December 7, 2025

Monday:
• No major economic releases scheduled.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 and DOW futures are little changed (fair value).

Oil prices were up over the last week with WTI futures at $60.11 per barrel and Brent at $63.76 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $69, and Brent was at $74 - so WTI oil prices are down about 15% year-over-year.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $2.90 per gallon. A year ago, prices were at $2.97 per gallon, so gasoline prices are down $0.07 year-over-year.

by Calculated Risk on 12/07/2025 11:50:00 AM

Most analysts expect the FOMC to reduce the Fed Funds rate by 25bps at the meeting this week to a target range of 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent.    Market participants currently expect two additional rate cuts in 2026.

Analysis suggests rates are currently slightly restrictive (Cleveland Fed) or even already accommodative (even before this rate cut).  So, to cut rates in this environment, FOMC members are clearly expecting either inflation to decline quickly or an employment recession, or both.  This outlook should show up in the projections (lower inflation, higher unemployment rate).

From Goldman Sachs:

The FOMC is widely expected to deliver a third consecutive 25bp interest rate cut to 3.5-3.75% at what will likely be a contentious December meeting next week. ... The case for a cut is solid, in our view. Job growth remains too low to keep up with labor supply growth, the unemployment rate has risen for three months in a row to 4.4%, other measures of labor market tightness have weakened more on average, and some alternative data measures of layoffs have begun to rise recently, presenting a new and potentially more serious downside risk.

From BofA:

The Fed has signaled that it will cut rates by 25bp to 3.5-3.75% at its Dec meeting. We look for two or three substantive changes in the FOMC statement. The description of labor market conditions is likely to omit the language that the u-rate “remained low”, to reflect the 32bp uptick over the last three months.
...
The SEP is likely to show upgrades to growth in 2025 and 2026. ... However, as a mark-to-market based on the latest data, we think the u-rate for 4Q 2025 will be taken up by a tenth to 4.6%. ... These changes would provide some cover for cutting rates despite the expected upgrades to the growth outlook.
emphasis added

Projections will be released at this meeting. Here are the September projections.  

The BEA's estimate for first half 2025 GDP showed real growth at 1.6% annualized. Most estimates for Q3 GDP are around 3.5%.  That would put the real growth for the first three quarters at 2.2% annualized - well above the top end of the September projections.   So GDP for 2025 will likely be increased.

GDP projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Change in Real GDP1
Projection Date	2025	2026	2027
Sept 2025	1.4 to 1.7	1.7 to 2.1	1.8 to 2.0
Jun 2025	1.2 to 1.5	1.5 to 1.8	1.7 to 2.0

¹ Projections of change in real GDP and inflation are from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated.

The unemployment rate was at 4.4% in September.  The unemployment rate will likely increase further this year. There was no data for October due to the government shutdown, and the November report will be released on December 16th - the week after the FOMC meeting - so the FOMC is flying blind this week on the unemployment rate.  However, they will probably increase the 2025 projection (and possibly 2026) as justification for the rate cut.  An unemployment rate of 4.6% over the next few months might be recessionary (according to the Sahm rule).

Unemployment projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Unemployment Rate2
Projection Date	2025	2026	2027
Sept 2025	4.4 to 4.5	4.4 to 4.5	4.2 to 4.4
Jun 2025	4.4 to 4.5	4.3 to 4.6	4.2 to 4.6

² Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated.

As of September 2025, PCE inflation increased 2.8 percent year-over-year (YoY), up from 2.7 percent YoY in August.  Projections for PCE inflation will probably remain unchanged or lowered slightly.

Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, PCE Inflation1
Projection Date	2025	2026	2027
Sept 2025	2.9 to 3.0	2.4-2.7	2.0 to 2.2
Jun 2025	2.8 to 3.2	2.3-2.6	2.0 to 2.2

PCE core inflation increased 2.8 percent YoY, down from 2.9 percent in August.   Projections for 2025 core PCE inflation will likely be decreased.

Core Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Core Inflation1
Projection Date	2025	2026	2027
Sept 2025	3.0 to 3.2	2.5-2.7	2.0 to 2.2
Jun 2025	2.9 to 3.4	2.3-2.6	2.0 to 2.2

by Calculated Risk on 12/06/2025 02:48:00 PM

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:

Click on graph for larger image.

• Inflation Adjusted House Prices 3.0% Below 2022 Peak

• Q3 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO

• Final Look at Housing Markets in October and a Look Ahead to November Sales

• Asking Rents Soft Year-over-year

This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.

by Calculated Risk on 12/06/2025 08:11:00 AM

Special Note: There is still uncertainty on when some economic reports will be released. The employment report for November will NOT be released this week.

This will be a light week for economic data.  The FOMC meets this week and is expected to cut rates by 25bp.

----- Monday, December 8th -----
No major economic releases scheduled.

----- Tuesday, December 9th -----
6:00 AM: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for November.

10:00 AM: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for October from the BLS.

This graph shows job openings (black line), hires (purple), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.

obs openings increased in August to 7.23 million from 7.21million in July.

The number of job openings (black) were down 6% year-over-year. Quits were down 3% year-over-year.

----- Wednesday, December 10th -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

2:00 PM: FOMC Meeting Announcement. The Fed is expected to cut rates 25bp at this meeting.

2:00 PM: FOMC Forecasts This will include the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) participants' projections of the appropriate target federal funds rate along with the quarterly economic projections.

2:30 PM: Fed Chair Jerome Powell holds a press briefing following the FOMC announcement.

----- Thursday, December 11th -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  There were 191,000 initial claims last week.

8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for September from the Census Bureau.

This graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through the most recent report. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.

The consensus is the trade deficit to be $65.5 billion.  The U.S. trade deficit was at $59.6 billion in August.

10:00 AM: the Q3 2025 Housing Vacancies and Homeownership from the Census Bureau.

10:00 AM: State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for September 2025

----- Friday, December 12th -----
No major economic releases scheduled.

by Calculated Risk on 12/05/2025 04:20:00 PM

From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) AAR Data Center. Graph and excerpts reprinted with permission.

Continued Economic Uncertainty Reflected in Rail Volumes
...
In November 2025, total U.S. rail carloads were up 1.5% over November 2024, and 9 of the 20 major rail carload categories posted year-over-year gains. ...

U.S. rail intermodal shipments, which are driven primarily by consumer goods, fell 6.5% in November 2025 from November 2024. Year-to-date intermodal volume through November was 13.00 million containers and trailers, up 1.9% (nearly 247,000 units) over last year.
emphasis added

The AAR Freight Rail Index (FRI) combines seasonally adjusted month-to-month rail intermodal shipments with carloads excluding coal and grain. The index is a useful gauge of underlying freight demand associated with the industrial and consumer economy. The index fell 0.4% in November 2025 from October 2025, its seventh decline in the past eight months. The index is 4.4% below its year-earlier level, largely because of the intermodal slowdown in recent months.

by Calculated Risk on 12/05/2025 01:04:00 PM

The advance release of Q3 GDP has been cancelled. Q3 GDP will be released on Dec 23rd.

From BofA:

Since our last weekly publication, 3Q GDP tracking increased from 2.8% q/q sarr to 3.0% The upward revision was largely due to the strong September durable goods report that led us to revise higher our equipment estimate. [December 5th estimate]
emphasis added

From Goldman:

We lowered our Q3 GDP tracking estimate by 0.3pp to +3.5% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) and our Q3 domestic final sales estimate by 0.2pp to +2.6%. [December 5th estimate]

And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2025 is 3.5 percent on December 5, down from 3.8 percent on December 4. After this morning’s personal income and outlays release from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the nowcast for third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth declined from 3.1 percent to 2.7 percent. [December 5th estimate]

by Calculated Risk on 12/05/2025 10:47:00 AM

Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, both through September 2025.

CPI Shelter was up 3.6% year-over-year in September, down slightly from 3.6% in August, and down from the cycle peak of 8.2% in March 2023.

Housing (PCE) was up 3.7% YoY in September, down from 3.9% in August and down from the cycle peak of 8.3% in April 2023.

Since asking rents are mostly flat year-over-year, these measures will slowly continue to decline over the next year as rents for existing tenants continue to increase.

The second graph shows PCE prices, Core PCE prices and Core ex-housing over the last 3 months (annualized):

Key measures are above the Fed's target on a 3-month basis. 

3-month annualized change:

PCE Price Index: 2.8%
Core PCE Prices: 2.7%
Core minus Housing: 2.6%

by Calculated Risk on 12/05/2025 10:00:00 AM

From the BEA: Personal Income and Outlays, September 2025

Personal income increased $94.5 billion (0.4 percent at a monthly rate) in September, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $75.9 billion (0.3 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $65.1 billion (0.3 percent).

Personal outlays—the sum of PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments—increased $70.7 billion in September. Personal saving was $1.09 trillion in September and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 4.7 percent.
...
From the preceding month, the PCE price index for September increased 0.3 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.2 percent.

From the same month one year ago, the PCE price index for September increased 2.8 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 2.8 percent from one year ago.
emphasis added

The September PCE price index increased 2.8 percent year-over-year (YoY), up from 2.7 percent YoY in August.

The PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 2.8 percent YoY, down from 2.9 percent in August.

The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through August 2025 (2017 dollars). Note that the y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed red lines are the quarterly levels for real PCE.

Personal income was at expectations and spending was below expectations.

Inflation was slightly lower than expected.

by Calculated Risk on 12/05/2025 09:49:00 AM

From Manheim Consulting today: Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index: November 2025 Trends

The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) rose to 205.4, reflecting a 1.3% increase in November’s wholesale used-vehicle prices (adjusted for mix, mileage, and seasonality) compared to October. The index is mostly unchanged compared to November 2024. The long-term average monthly move for November is a decrease of 0.6%.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This index from Manheim Consulting is based on all completed sales transactions at Manheim’s U.S. auctions.

The Manheim index suggests used car prices increased in November (seasonally adjusted) and were mostly unchanged YoY.

by Calculated Risk on 12/04/2025 08:11:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Thursday:
• At 10:00 AM ET, Personal Income and Outlays for September. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income, and for a 0.4% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.2% (up 2.9% YoY).

• Also at 10:00 AM, University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Preliminary for December).

by Calculated Risk on 12/04/2025 04:01:00 PM

Hotel occupancy was weak over the summer months, due to less international tourism.  The fall months are mostly domestic travel and occupancy is still under pressure! 

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 29 November

The U.S. hotel industry reported mixed year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 29 November. ...

23-29 November 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024):

• Occupancy: 49.8% (-1.0%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$141.31 (+0.2%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$70.42 (-0.7%)
emphasis added

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2024.  Dashed black is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. 

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking behind both last year and the median rate for the period 2000 through 2024 (Blue).

Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

The 4-week average will decrease seasonally until early next year.

On a year-to-date basis, the only worse years for occupancy over the last 25 years were pandemic or recession years.

by Calculated Risk on 12/04/2025 01:42:00 PM

From Cotality (formerly CoreLogic): US home price insights — December 2025

• Year-over-year price growth continues its downward trend, only rising 1.1% in October 2025.

• Price declines expanded from six of the 100 largest metros in January to 32 by October, marking the broadest softening of prices since the early 2010s.
...
This year began with a stable growth trajectory, with national price growth posting an annual increase of 3.4% in January. However, that momentum slowed steadily as the year progressed. By October, annual appreciation was a mere 1.1% annual increase—the lowest rate since early 2012.

"The housing market in 2025 demonstrated remarkable resilience despite significant headwinds. Slowing price growth reflects a much-needed rebalancing after years of unsustainable gains. While some markets are experiencing declines, these adjustments will help restore affordability over time and make housing more accessible to a wider group of buyers,” said Cotality’s Chief Economist Dr. Selma Hepp.

This deceleration highlights the impact of higher mortgage rates earlier in the year and persistent affordability challenges. Furthermore, price growth was dampened by a notable increase in inventory. Many markets saw a surge in both existing and newly built homes, slowing rates of in-migration and weakened demand.

The robust price increases of 2022 when top metros — primarily in Florida and the Southeast — saw gains exceeding 30% has now given way to declines. At the start of 2025, only six metros — primarily in Florida — posted year-over-year drops. By October, that number surged to 32, as pricing downturns extended into Texas, California, and various states throughout the Mountain West.
emphasis added

This graph from Cotality shows the Top 10 coolest markets.

The list is dominated by Florida and Texas. According to Cotality, the highest risk markets are all in Florida.

House prices are under pressure with more inventory and sluggish sales.

by Calculated Risk on 12/04/2025 10:46:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Q3 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO

A brief excerpt:

Even with the recent weakness in house prices, it is important to note that there will NOT be a surge in foreclosures that could lead to cascading house price declines (as happened following the housing bubble) for two key reasons: 1) mortgage lending has been solid, and 2) most homeowners have substantial equity in their homes.

With substantial equity, and low mortgage rates (mostly at a fixed rates), few homeowners will have financial difficulties.

But it is still important to track delinquencies and foreclosures.
...
This graph shows the nominal dollar value of Residential REO for FDIC insured institutions based on the Q3 FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile released in late November. Note: The FDIC reports the dollar value and not the total number of REOs.

The dollar value of 1-4 family residential Real Estate Owned (REOs, foreclosure houses) was up 24% YOY from $765 million in Q3 2024 to $951 million in Q3 2025. This is still historically very low, but increasing.

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 12/04/2025 08:30:00 AM

The DOL reported:

In the week ending November 29, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 191,000, a decrease of 27,000 from the previous week's revised level. This is the lowest level for initial claims since September 24, 2022 when it was 189,000. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 216,000 to 218,000. The 4-week moving average was 214,750, a decrease of 9,500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 500 from 223,750 to 224,250.
emphasis added

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 214,750.