by Calculated Risk on 12/23/2025 11:14:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Final Look at Housing Markets in November and a Look Ahead to December Sales

A brief excerpt:

After the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) releases the monthly existing home sales report, I pick up additional local market data that is reported after the NAR. This is the final look at local markets in November.

There were several key stories for November:

• Sales NSA are down 0.5% YoY through November, and sales last year were the lowest since 1995!

• Sales SAAR (seasonally adjusted annual rate) have bounced around 4 million for the last 3 years.

• Months-of-supply is above pre-pandemic levels.

• The median price is up 1.2% YoY, and with the increases in inventory, some regional areas will see further price declines - and we might see national price declines sometime in 2026.

The median price is up 1.2% YoY, and with the increases in inventory, some regional areas will see further price declines - and we might see national price declines sometime in 2026.

Sales averaged close to 5.42 million SAAR for the month of November in the 2017-2019 period. So, sales are about 24% below pre-pandemic levels.
...
In November, sales in these markets were down 6.5% YoY. Last month, in October, these same markets were up 2.3% year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA). The NAR reported sales were down 7.0% YoY in November, very close to this market sample.

Important: There was one fewer working days in November 2025 (18) as in November 2024 (19). So, the year-over-year change in the headline SA data was more than the change in NSA data (there are other seasonal factors).
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More local data coming in January for activity in December!

There is much more in the article.