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Wednesday, November 15, 2023

3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in October

by Calculated Risk on 11/15/2023 02:48:00 PM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in October

A brief excerpt:

NOTE: Starting next month, I’ll add some comparisons to 2019 (pre-pandemic)!

This is the third look at several early reporting local markets in October. I’m tracking about 40 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 40 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I’ll update these tables throughout the month as additional data is released.

Closed sales in October were mostly for contracts signed in August and September. Since 30-year fixed mortgage rates were in the 7.1% in August and 7.2% in September, compared to the high-5% range the previous year, closed sales were down year-over-year in October.
Closed Sales October 2023In October, sales in these markets were down 9.5%. In September, these same markets were down 15.3% YoY Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

This is a smaller YoY decline NSA than in September for these markets. However, this is where seasonal adjustments make a difference.

There was one more working day in October 2023 compared to October 2022, the opposite of September when there was one fewer working day in 2023 compared to 2022. So, for October, the seasonally adjusted decline will be larger than the NSA decline.
The data so far suggests the October existing home sales report will show another significant YoY decline, perhaps close to 4 million SAAR (early guess of Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate), and maybe slightly above the cycle low of 3.96 million SAAR last month. This will be the 26th consecutive month with a YoY decline in sales.
More local markets to come!
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