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Friday, September 22, 2023

Q3 GDP Tracking: Around 3%

by Calculated Risk on 9/22/2023 08:28:00 AM

From BofA:

Overall, the data flow since our last report left our 3Q and 2Q US GDP tracking unchanged at 2.9% q/q saar and 2.3% q/q saar, respectively. [Sept 22nd estimate]
emphasis added
From Goldman:
We left our Q3 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +3.2% (qoq ar). [Sept 21st estimate]
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2023 is 4.9 percent on September 19, unchanged from September 14 after rounding. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the nowcast of third-quarter real residential investment growth decreased from 6.8 percent to 6.3 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of inventory investment to third-quarter real GDP growth decreased from 1.20 percentage points to 1.05 percentage points. [Sept 19th estimate]