by Calculated Risk on 7/13/2023 10:32:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-July

A brief excerpt:

Yesterday, in Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-July I reviewed home inventory and sales.
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Here is some data from the recently released FHFA’s National Mortgage Database showing the distribution of interest rates on closed-end, fixed-rate 1-4 family mortgages outstanding at the end of each quarter since Q1 2013 through Q1 2023.

This shows the surge in the percent of loans under 3%, and also under 4%, starting in early 2020 as mortgage rates declined sharply during the pandemic. Currently 23.3% of loans are under 3%, 61.3% are under 4%, and 81.2% are under 5%.

The percent of outstanding loans under 4% peaked in Q1 2022 at 65.3%, and the percent under 5% peaked at 85.6%.

This is very different from the housing bust, when many homeowners were forced to sell as their teaser rates expired and they could not afford the fully amortized mortgage payment. The current situation is similar to the 1980 period, when rates also increased quickly.

There is much more in the article. You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/