by Calculated Risk on 3/21/2023 10:49:00 AM

Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.58 million SAAR in February; Median Prices Declined YoY

Excerpt:

On prices, the NAR reported:

The median existing-home price for all housing types in January was $363,000, a decline of 0.2% from February 2022 ($363,700), as prices climbed in the Midwest and South yet waned in the Northeast and West. This ends a streak of 131 consecutive months of year-over-year increases, the longest on record.

Median prices are distorted by the mix (repeat sales indexes like Case-Shiller and FHFA are probably better for measuring prices).

The YoY change in the median price peaked at 25.2% in May 2021 and prices are now down 0.2% YoY. Median house prices increased 0.5% from January to February and have declined 12.3% from the peak in June 2022 (NSA).

It is likely the Case-Shiller index will be down soon year-over-year.

Note that closed sales in February were mostly for contracts signed in December and January. Mortgage rates, according to the Freddie Mac PMMS, decreased to around 6.4% in December and 6.3% in January, and that provided a boost to closed sales in February. March sales will be for contracts signed in January and February, and mortgage rates averaged 6.3% in February too (spiking at the end of the month), so the impact from the recent increase in rates won’t happen until the April or May report.

There is much more in the article.  You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/ Please subscribe!