In Depth Analysis: CalculatedRisk Newsletter on Real Estate (Ad Free) Read it here.

Tuesday, March 21, 2023

Goldman: Seasonally Adjusted Median Prices Down 4.2% from Peak

by Calculated Risk on 3/21/2023 03:56:00 PM

Earlier, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter on February existing home sales, NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.58 million SAAR in February; Median Prices Declined YoY, I mentioned that the median price was up 0.5% Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) from January 2023.

Goldman Sachs economists estimated the seasonally adjusted (SA) month-over-month change was down 0.5%, and that median prices were down 4.2% SA from the peak:

"The median sales price of all existing homes declined 0.5% month-over-month (sa by GS), corresponding to a year-over-year rate of -0.2%, and are now cumulatively down 4.2% from the May 2022 peak."
Below is a table of the seasonal changes from annual peak to the following February over the last several years (all prices Not Seasonally Adjusted, NSA).

Seasonally prices typically peak in June (closed sales for contracts signed mostly in April and May).

Peak MonthJuneJuneOctJuneJune
To following Feb-8.7%-5.3%-0.8%-0.9%-12.3%

In 2020, prices increased late into the year and only declined slightly seasonally (the start of the pandemic buying boom), and in 2021, median prices only declined slightly from June to the following February.

But the decline from the 2022 peak to February 2023 of 12.3% is larger than in the pre-pandemic years. And we will probably see further price weaknesses.

Last year, median prices increased 4.3% in March, 4.3% in April and 3.3% in May, all NSA.

Median prices will likely increase less month-to-month this year - for the next 3 months - and that will push the year-over-year change further negative.