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Friday, February 10, 2023

Early Q1 GDP Tracking

by Calculated Risk on 2/10/2023 12:45:00 PM

It is very early in the quarter and some tracking estimates will start next week. It looks like Q4 GDP will be revised up in the second estimate to be released on February 23rd.

From BofA:

Data released since our last weekly lowered our 4Q tracking estimate by 0.1ppt to 3.2% q/q saar. ... Looking ahead to next week, we will start our tracker for 1Q US GDP with the January retail sales report. In addition, we will incorporate December business inventories, January housing starts and permits, CPI, PPI, and import prices into our 4Q and 1Q tracking estimates. [Feb 10th]
emphasis added
From Goldman:
We boosted our Q1 GDP tracking estimate by 0.4pp to +0.8% (qoq ar). We left our past-quarter GDP tracking estimate for Q4 unchanged on a rounded basis at +3.2%, compared to +2.9% as originally reported. [Feb 7th estimate]
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2023 is 2.2 percent on February 8, up from 2.1 percent on February 7. [Feb 8th estimate]