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Friday, December 09, 2022

Q4 GDP Tracking

by Calculated Risk on 12/09/2022 05:13:00 PM

From BofA:

The components of PPI that we use to deflate structures investment and inventories imply modestly more non-residential investment and inventory accumulation in the quarter than we were assuming. After rounding, our 4Q US GDP tracking estimate moved up one-tenth to 1.6% q/q saar. [Dec 9th estimate]
emphasis added
From Goldman:
We lowered our Q4 GDP tracking estimate by 0.1pp to +1.7% (qoq ar). [Dec 9th estimate]
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2022 is 3.2 percent on December 9, down from 3.4 percent on December 6. After this morning's releases from the US Census Bureau and the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the nowcast of fourth-quarter gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 1.7 percent to 0.7 percent. [Dec 9th estimate]