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Friday, November 04, 2022

October Employment Report: 261 thousand Jobs, 3.7% Unemployment Rate

by Calculated Risk on 11/04/2022 08:40:00 AM

From the BLS:

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 261,000 in October, and the unemployment rate rose to 3.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in health care, professional and technical services, and manufacturing.
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for August was revised down by 23,000, from +315,000 to +292,000, and the change for September was revised up by 52,000, from +263,000 to +315,000. With these revisions, employment gains in August and September combined were 29,000 higher than previously reported.
emphasis added
Employment Recessions, Scariest Job ChartClick on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms.

The current employment recession was by far the worst recession since WWII in percentage terms.

However, as of August, all of the jobs had returned and are now 804 thousand above pre-pandemic levelsI'll post this graph through the January 2023 report (includes the annual revision).

Year-over-year change employment The second graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.

In October, the year-over-year change was 5.30 million jobs.  Employment was up significantly year-over-year.

Total payrolls increased by 261 thousand in October.  Private payrolls increased by 233 thousand, and public payrolls increased 28 thousand.

Payrolls for August and September were revised up 29 thousand, combined.

The third graph shows the employment population ratio and the participation rate.

Employment Pop Ratio and participation rate The Labor Force Participation Rate decreased to 62.2% in October, from 62.3% in September. This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force.

The Employment-Population ratio decreased to 60.0% from 60.1% (blue line).

I'll post the 25 to 54 age group employment-population ratio graph later.

unemployment rateThe fourth graph shows the unemployment rate.

The unemployment rate increased in October to 3.7% from 3.5% in September.

This was above consensus expectations; and August and September payrolls were revised up by 29,000 combined.  

I'll have more later ...