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Friday, November 04, 2022

Early Q4 GDP Tracking and Upward Revisions to Q3 GDP

by Calculated Risk on 11/04/2022 12:26:00 PM

A wide range of Q4 estimates, from 0.7% to 3.6%. It looks like Q3 GDP will be revised up in the second release.

From BofA:

[1.0% in Q4] Overall, the data since our last weekly publication when the BEA’s advance estimate of US 3Q GDP growth was realeased, moved up our 3Q GDP tracking estimate from 2.6% q/q saar (seasonally adjusted annual rate) to 3.1% q/q saar [Nov 4th estimate]
emphasis added
From Goldman:
Following today’s data, we lowered our Q4 GDP tracking estimate by two tenths to +0.7% (qoq ar) but boosted our past-quarter tracking estimate for Q3 by the same amount to +3.1%, compared to +2.6% as originally reported. [Nov 3rd estimate]
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2022 is 3.6 percent on November 3, up from 2.6 percent on November 1. [Nov 3rd estimate]