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Wednesday, October 12, 2022

2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in September

by Calculated Risk on 10/12/2022 11:07:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in September

A brief excerpt:

This is the second look at local markets in September. I’m tracking about 35 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 35 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I’ll update these tables throughout the month as additional data is released.

We are seeing a sharp decline in closed sales, and inventory is up significantly year-over-year. Also, new listings are down as the sellers’ strike continues. The increase in inventory so far has been due to softer demand because of higher mortgage rates.

30 year Mortgage 10 year TreasuryIn September, sales were down 22.5%. In August, sales in these same markets were down 20.2% YoY Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

Note that in September 2022, there were the same number of selling days as in September 2021, so the SA decline will be similar to the NSA decline. Last month, in August 2022, there was one more selling day than in August 2021 - so seasonally adjusted, the decline in sales in September will be about the same as in August for these markets.

Closed sales in September were mostly for contracts signed in July and August when 30-year mortgage rates averaged about 5.3%. Rates increased to around 6% in September and that will impact closed sales in October and November. In early October 30-year rates have jumped to over 7%.

Many more local markets to come!
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