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Friday, August 19, 2022

Q3 GDP Forecasts: Around 1%

by Calculated Risk on 8/19/2022 09:45:00 AM

From BofA:

Data this week have been a positive for GDP tracking in 2Q and 3Q. We took our 2Q GDP tracking up to -0.3% q/q saar from -0.9% owing to a strong upward revision to May retail sales. ... Meanwhile, we initiated our 3Q GDP tracking at 0.5% q/q saar [August 19 estimate]
emphasis added
From Goldman:
We left our Q3 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +1.3% (qoq ar). [August 18 estimate]
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2022 is 1.6 percent on August 17, down from 1.8 percent on August 16. [August 17 estimate]