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Monday, August 29, 2022

Pace of Rent Increases Continues to Slow

by Calculated Risk on 8/29/2022 11:39:00 PM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Pace of Rent Increases Continues to Slow

A brief excerpt:

Here is a graph of the year-over-year (YoY) change for these measures since January 2015. All of these measures are through July 2022 (Apartment List through August 2022).

Note that new lease measures (Zillow, Apartment List) dipped early in the pandemic, whereas the BLS measures were steady. Then new leases took off, and the BLS measures are picking up.
The Zillow measure is up 13.2% YoY in July, down from 14.9% YoY in June. This is down from a peak of 17.2% YoY in February.

The ApartmentList measure is up 10.0% YoY as of August, down from 12.3% in July. This is down from the peak of 18.0% YoY last November.

Case-Shiller House Prices IndicesRents are still increasing, and we should expect this to continue to spill over into measures of inflation in 2022. The Owners’ Equivalent Rent (OER) was up 5.8% YoY in July, from 5.5% YoY in June - and will likely increase further in the coming months.
My suspicion is rent increases will slow further over the coming months as the pace of household formation slows, and more supply comes on the market. For example, the National Multifamily Housing Council (NMHC) recently reported that markets tightness only increased slightly in their July survey.
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