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Friday, July 22, 2022

Q2 GDP Forecasts: Slightly Negative

by Calculated Risk on 7/22/2022 10:58:00 AM

The advance estimate of Q2 GDP will be released next week, and the consensus is for real GDP to increase 0.4% in Q2.

Note: We've seen two consecutive quarters of negative GDP before without a recession (that isn't the definition). If Q2 is negative, it will mostly be due to inventory and trade issues. No worries. My view is the US economy is not currently in a recession, see: Predicting the Next Recession

From BofA:

In next week’s advance estimate of 2Q US GDP, we expect the BEA to report that the economy contracted by 1.5% qoq saar, marking the second consecutive decline in quarterly output. [July 22 estimate]
emphasis added
From Goldman:
[W]e lowered our Q2 GDP tracking estimate by 0.1pp to +0.5% (qoq ar). [July 20 estimate]
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2022 is -1.6 percent on July 19, down from -1.5 percent on July 15. [July 19 estimate]