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Friday, July 15, 2022

Q2 GDP Forecasts: Slightly Negative

by Calculated Risk on 7/15/2022 12:28:00 PM

Note: We've seen two consecutive quarters of negative GDP before without a recession (that isn't the definition). If Q2 is negative, it will mostly be due to inventory and trade issues. No worries. My view is the US economy is not currently in a recession, see: Predicting the Next Recession

From BofA:

Incoming data pushed our tracking estimate for 2Q growth lower by 0.3pp to -1.4% qoq saar [July 15 estimate]
emphasis added
From Goldman:
We left our Q2 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +0.7% (qoq ar). [July 15 estimate]
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2022 is -1.5 percent on July 15, down from -1.2 percent on July 8. [July 15 estimate]