by Calculated Risk on 7/07/2022 09:11:00 PM

My June Employment Preview

Goldman June Payrolls Preview

Friday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Employment Report for June.   The consensus is for 270,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 3.6%

On COVID (focus on hospitalizations and deaths):

COVID Metrics
	Now	Week Ago	Goal
Percent fully Vaccinated	66.9%	---	≥70.0%1
Fully Vaccinated (millions)	222.3	---	≥2321
New Cases per Day3	106,549	110,875	≤5,0002
Hospitalized3🚩	28,891	26,959	≤3,0002
Deaths per Day3	273	345	≤502
1 Minimum to achieve "herd immunity" (estimated between 70% and 85%). 2my goals to stop daily posts, 37-day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths 🚩 Increasing 7-day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ✅ Goal met.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7-day average (line) of deaths reported.

Average daily deaths bottomed in July 2021 at 214 per day.