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Thursday, May 05, 2022

Goldman April Payrolls Preview

by Calculated Risk on 5/05/2022 04:39:00 PM

A few brief excerpts from a note by Goldman Sachs economist Spencer Hill:

We estimate nonfarm payrolls rose by 300k in April (mom sa), below consensus of +385k and our original forecast of +350k. While labor demand remains at elevated levels and dining activity has returned to normal, seasonally-adjusted job growth tends to slow during the spring hiring season when the labor market is tight. ...We estimate a one-tenth drop in the unemployment rate to 3.5%, reflecting a solid or strong rise in household employment partially offset by another 0.1pp rise in labor force participation to 62.5%
emphasis added
CR Note: The consensus is for 400 thousand jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 3.6%.