by Calculated Risk on 5/05/2022 08:45:00 PM

My April Employment Preview

Goldman April Payrolls Preview

Friday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Employment Report for April.   The consensus is for 400,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 3.6%.

On COVID (focus on hospitalizations and deaths):

COVID Metrics
	Now	Week Ago	Goal
Percent fully Vaccinated	66.2%	---	≥70.0%1
Fully Vaccinated (millions)	219.9	---	≥2321
New Cases per Day3🚩	61,712	50,531	≤5,0002
Hospitalized3🚩	12,437	10,931	≤3,0002
Deaths per Day3🚩	325	311	≤502
1 Minimum to achieve "herd immunity" (estimated between 70% and 85%). 2my goals to stop daily posts, 37-day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths 🚩 Increasing 7-day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ✅ Goal met.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7-day average (line) of deaths reported.

New cases have more than doubled from the recent low, and hospitalizations and deaths are increasing week-over-week.

Average daily deaths bottomed in July 2021 at 214 per day.