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Thursday, May 05, 2022

Friday: Employment Report

by Calculated Risk on 5/05/2022 08:45:00 PM

My April Employment Preview

Goldman April Payrolls Preview

• At 8:30 AM ET, Employment Report for April.   The consensus is for 400,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 3.6%.

On COVID (focus on hospitalizations and deaths):

COVID Metrics
Percent fully Vaccinated66.2%---≥70.0%1
Fully Vaccinated (millions)219.9---≥2321
New Cases per Day3🚩61,71250,531≤5,0002
Deaths per Day3🚩325311≤502
1 Minimum to achieve "herd immunity" (estimated between 70% and 85%).
2my goals to stop daily posts,
37-day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths
🚩 Increasing 7-day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths
✅ Goal met.

COVID-19 Positive Tests per DayClick on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7-day average (line) of deaths reported.

New cases have more than doubled from the recent low, and hospitalizations and deaths are increasing week-over-week.

Average daily deaths bottomed in July 2021 at 214 per day.