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Thursday, May 27, 2021

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 406,000

by Calculated Risk on 5/27/2021 08:40:00 AM

The DOL reported:

In the week ending May 22, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 406,000, a decrease of 38,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 444,000. This is the lowest level for initial claims since March 14, 2020 when it was 256,000. The 4-week moving average was 458,750, a decrease of 46,000 from the previous week's unrevised average of 504,750. This is the lowest level for this average since March 14, 2020 when it was 225,500.
emphasis added
This does not include the 93,546 initial claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that was down from 95,142 the previous week.

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 458,750.

The previous week was unrevised.

Regular state continued claims decreased to 3,642,000 (SA) from 3,738,000 (SA) the previous week.

Note: There are an additional 6,515,657 receiving Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that decreased from 6,606,198 the previous week (there are questions about these numbers). This is a special program for business owners, self-employed, independent contractors or gig workers not receiving other unemployment insurance.  And an additional 5,191,642 receiving Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC) up from 5,142,370.

Weekly claims were lower than the consensus forecast.