Sunday, May 02, 2021

Goldman on Housing: Double-digit price gains in 2021 and 2022

by Calculated Risk on 5/02/2021 11:00:00 PM

A few brief excerpts from a Goldman Sachs research note on housing:

Strong demand for housing looks sustainable. Even before the pandemic, demographic tailwinds and historically-low mortgage rates had pushed demand to high levels. ... consumer surveys indicate that household buying intentions are now the highest in 20 years. ... mortgage lending standards have remained fairly tight. With demographic trends still strong, mortgage rates very low, housing affordability still high, and household wealth as a share of income at the highest level in US history, demand should remain strong.

The supply picture offers no quick fixes to the shortage of available homes ... The resulting picture is one of a persistent supply-demand imbalance in the years ahead. ... [Our] model suggests that rising prices will only gradually reduce affordability enough to dampen demand and mitigate the supply-demand imbalance. As a result, the model projects double-digit price gains both this year and next.