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Friday, April 23, 2021

Q1 GDP Forecasts: Around 7%

by Calculated Risk on 4/23/2021 11:56:00 AM

Q1 GDP will be released this coming Thursday. The consensus is for real GDP to increase 6.5%, quarter-over-quarter, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis. 

Note that the forecasts of the automated systems (based on released data), have caught up with the forecasts of economists, as data for March is released.

From Merrill Lynch:
We expect the advance estimate of 1Q 2021 GDP to show an acceleration in growth to an eye-popping 6.5% qoq saar from 4.1% in 4Q 2020 [Apr 23 estimate]
emphasis added
From Goldman Sachs:
We left our Q1 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +7.5% (qoq ar). [Apr 23 estimate]
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 6.9% for 2021:Q1 and 4.6% for 2021:Q2. [Apr 23 estimate]
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2021 is 8.3 percent on April 16 [Apr 16 estimate]