Tuesday, March 30, 2021

Zillow Case-Shiller House Price Forecast: "No End in Sight", 12.0% YoY in February

by Calculated Risk on 3/30/2021 06:13:00 PM

The Case-Shiller house price indexes for January were released today. Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller a month early, and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close.

From Matthew Speakman at Zillow: January 2021 Case-Shiller Results & Forecast: No End in Sight

Home prices continued their surge higher as the new year began, maintaining a torrid pace that appears likely to persist for many more months.
...
As more signs of an improving economy continue to arrive, demand for housing remains elevated leading homes to fly off the shelves and red-hot competition for the relatively few homes available for sale. Homes in many areas went under contract in January — generally one of the slower times of the year — merely days after hitting the market and about a month faster than the same period a year ago. Seeing this, and unfazed by rising mortgage rates, a wave of eager buyers is being forced to act swiftly and face heightened competition for the few homes available. The combined dynamic is pushing prices upward at their strongest pace in years, and it doesn’t appear that there is an end in sight.

Monthly growth in January as reported by Case-Shiller is expected to slow slightly from December in all three main indices, while annual growth is expected to accelerate across the board. S&P Dow Jones Indices is expected to release data for the January S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices on Tuesday, April 27.
emphasis added
Zillow forecast for Case-ShillerThe Zillow forecast is for the year-over-year change for the Case-Shiller National index to be at 12.0% in February, up from 11.2% in January.

The Zillow forecast is for the 20-City index to be up 11.9% YoY in February from 11.1% in January, and for the 10-City index to increase to be up 11.6% YoY compared to 10.9% YoY in January.