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Thursday, March 04, 2021

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 745,000

by Calculated Risk on 3/04/2021 08:40:00 AM

The DOL reported:

In the week ending February 27, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 745,000, an increase of 9,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 6,000 from 730,000 to 736,000. The 4-week moving average was 790,750, a decrease of 16,750 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised down by 250 from 807,750 to 807,500.
emphasis added
This does not include the 436,696 initial claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that was up from 427,450 the previous week.

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 790,750.

The previous week was revised up.

The second graph shows seasonally adjust continued claims since 1967 (lags initial by one week).

Regular state continued claims decreased to 4,295,000 (SA) from 4,419,000 (SA) the previous week and will likely stay at a high level until the crisis abates.

Note: There are an additional 7,328,311 receiving Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that decreased from 7,520,114 the previous week (there are questions about these numbers). This is a special program for business owners, self-employed, independent contractors or gig workers not receiving other unemployment insurance.  And an additional 4,466,916 receiving Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC) down from 5,067,523.

Weekly claims were close to the consensus forecast.